Degen Quiz

I try to make this an annual tradition as the betting markets change and I hear more creative stories from the social media community about how they’ve put their money work for them. Degeneracy comes in many a form, often manifesting itself in the most fascinating glimpses of human nature. To figure out exactly what depths each of you has gone too here’s my informal quiz to quantify your current state. Don’t fret if you score off the charts, embrace your true self and be proud of what you’ve accomplished. (Note: this quiz is designed for North American bettors. There was no way to include every soccer, basketball, or other domestic league around the world without making head’s spin) Sports Section What Sports have you bet on in the last year? (Add 1 point for all that apply) (Note: I debated adding all derivative markets (Halves, props, futures) but like to think that’s the value seeker in us all speaking out not true degenerate behavior) Football (Possible 5 points) NFL CFL NCAA Arena Football Other Basketball (Possible 4 points) NBA Euro Baskets NCAA Other Baseball (Possible 6 points) MLB NCAA Korean League Mexican League Japanese League Other Soccer (Possible 8 points) MLS EPL Serie A Bundesliga La Liga Europa UCL Other Hockey (Possible 3 points) NHL KHL Other Tennis (Possible 3 points) WTA ATP Challenger Golf (Possible 3 points) PGA LPGA Other Fighting (Possible 2 points) MMA Boxing Horse Racing (possible 7 points) Triple Crown Races Breeders Cup Saratoga, Del Mar, or Santa Anita Any other thoroughbred tracks Quarter Horses (LA Downs, Los Alamitos, etc) Sigma Derby Harness Racing Auto Racing (possible 4 points) NASCAR Indy Car Formula 1 Other Other Sports (Add 2 points for any of these you sickos) 26 possible Badminton...

Round 25 Feb05

Round 25

We had the luxury of mid-week fixtures this week and the EPL clubs get right back into league play this weekend.  James Kempton is here to offer his thoughts on every fixture just like he does every week during the season Listen to the EPL podcast here Manchester City v Leicester City Manchester City -1 and 3 goals Leicester’s biggest attacking threat comes when they are able to play on the break. As the home side swarm forward Leicester will look to hit them with quick counter punches through that forceful direct play that has served them so well this campaign. Will the home team adjust tactically? If they do then that limits their effectiveness going forward and I do not think they will be prepared to show Leicester the respect they deserve. Why would they as nobody else does! I believe in Leicester but let’s not forget they don’t need to win this game or even draw the match to still be able to win the title. I’m swerving this one and in some ways from a betting perspective it might not be the worst thing if Leicester lose this game as I’m sure their future odds will almost double if they lose. If they do fail in this spot then that’s when we pounce! Aston Villa v Norwich City Aston Villa -0.25 and 2.25 goals The Canaries will want to make sure they avoid a loss at all costs. We are moving into the stage of the season where game theory begins to come into play. Will Norwich risk losing this game if it’s level and seeing a three point shift in the table? They’d be crazy too so I’m sure they will look to keep that parity come the final whistle....

Superbowl 50 Feb04

Superbowl 50

Superbowl Sunday might be the biggest betting day of the entire season but for those in the industry it’s bittersweet.  We’re forced to say good bye to football season for seven months as we shift our betting energies to much less worthy pursuits.  For the final show of the season we brought on the hired guns.  Naturally industry insider PayneInsider brought it like he does every week and Dave Mason shared everything you need to know from how the house views the big game.  We also went deep into the rolodex to bring back a man of the people BarStoolBigCat.  I think you’ll enjoy our Superbowl spectacular to put a bow on a beautiful season. Special thanks to you, all of the listeners than make this podcast worth doing every single week. We also want to thank BetOnline for their season long sponsorship that includes generous offers to our listeners searching for a new book. Remember the best promotion in the business is still available up through kickoff on Sunday Listen to the podcast here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD and...

Mid-Week Report Feb01

Mid-Week Report

The FA Cup spoiled our normal EPL viewing this past weekend.  That’s the bad part but the ancilary benefit is a full slate of mid-week fixtures to give us the football fix.  Like he does every round of the Premier League schedule James Kempton is here to share all this thoughts. Arsenal v Southampton Arsenal -0.75 and 2.5 goals The Gunners go into this game with their mental strength coming under fire. Yes there were circumstances that led to their home defeat against Chelsea that you couldn’t factor in but even before the sending off they were second best on the pitch. The Saints won at Old Trafford in their previous outing and they travel here filled with confidence. Give me the Saints in this one as maybe the wobble is well and truly on at The Emirates. Leicester City v Liverpool PK and 2.25 goals When Liverpool beat Leicester 1-0 on Boxing Day many thought that would be the beginning of the end for this Leicester dream! The Foxes have shown a good deal of resilience to shake off their poorer results this season and not let it affect their belief they can challenge. The Foxes sit top of the table yet this game is priced at PK! Liverpool have improved under Klopp but much of this has been based on his passion rather than a rise in talent level. Jamie Vardy will give this Pool defence heart attacks with his directness so I’m all over Leicester on this PK line. Norwich City v Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham -0.5 and 2.5 goals New signing Naismith bagged a goal in his debut for the Canaries last Saturday but they somehow managed to lose a game 5-4 that at one point they comfortably led 3-1. Spurs...

Johnson vs Bader Jan30

Johnson vs Bader

UFC Fox Johnson vs. Bader: Tap-out on the Turnpike All fight analysis provided by Gamblou Welcome UFC Enthusiasts. Today’s fight card features some pretty compelling fights for the followers like us that fancy Fido. We’ve had a slow start managing mongrels in 2016 but our game is about a consistent quest to uncover value in the UFC so the slow start concerns us not. We’ll not attempt to get it all back today by overreaching rather we understand that the 2016 UFC campaign has just begun so today we look to take home some take home and reduce our negative balance and create monumental momentum as we head into February while there remains numerous fight cards ahead of us. A steady hand, patience and consistency is what we are all about as we undergo dynamic Due Diligence, remain supremely Selective in determining what releases we make each Saturday there is a UFC fight card. Here’s the tail wagers we’ll talk about today: UFC 2016: 2-6 <340.00> -Let’s Fight- Brown -120 vs. Dwyer +100 We like Dwyer’s length but have questions about his cardio and chin. We know little about his opponent Randy Brown expect that he is strong where Dwyer is weak….the beak. We’ll read the line here as we trust our amigo Nick Kalikas when he sets numbers for these fights and Brown opened up -230 and we can get him now -125 (as of this writing). We’ll value grab here with our only non-canine of the card. Brown -120 Northcutt -280 vs. Barberena +230 Sage Northcutt is the UFC’s shiny new toy. He plays the part with well with a chiseled physique, a magnetic smile and superior skills. The only thing we have yet to see from Super Sage is if he...

Quest to Legalize

Single game wagering is currently illegal in 49 states. The time to legalize our unofficial national past time is now. Gambling on sports has come under negative scrutiny recently amid match fixing allegations in tennis. The biggest misconception circulated by those against legalization is that creating a regulated environment somehow leads to more impropriety. This thought process is ridiculous and preposterous given that regulation of sports gambling in the States allows for better monitoring and policing like we have in other countries around the world. Most match fixing scandals are identified as a byproduct of bookmakers working directly with law enforcement. I had the chance to talk to a prominent tennis trader David Pentland from Corals earlier this week. Corals has a full list of policies and procedures in place to identify harmful irregularities in the integrity of betting markets. The majority of the matches we report are at the lowest level of the game (ITF). At this level there a number of players whom we will not price up, due to numerous irregular betting patterns on previous matches involving these players.  This is the first step in protecting ourselves against corruption, unfortunately it is not just a few isolated players. If a game is flagged up as being potentially suspicious, we will immediately cease betting on that match, and collate as much data as we can regarding the match and the customers that have bet on the match.  We will then withhold payment pending a full inquiry. After the data is collated (the data will include; markets affected, clients, bets, players, reasons for suspicion and any additional comments).  A spreadsheet will then be sent to our compliance manager who will then forward the relevant information on to the Tennis Integrity Unit  (Tennis Anti-Corruption...

Superbowl Wagering

Earlier on Wednesday the American Gaming Association released their statement on how much money they believed would be wagered on Superbowl 50.  The amounts are absolutely staggering not just in total but how much of this takes place illegally.  Here’s their complete press released with an explanation on how they arrived at their estimates. Washington, DC – According to an estimate released today by the American Gaming Association (AGA), Americans will bet $4.2 billion on Super Bowl 50 between the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, up eight percent over last year. Nearly 97 percent of those bets — $4.1 billion worth — will be wagered illegally, standing in stark contrast to the approximately $115 million bet legally on the New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks game last year. In fact, the illegal market is 35 times greater than the legal marketplace. INFOGRAPHIC: Americans to Bet $4.2B on Super Bowl 50 “As Americans celebrate a milestone Super Bowl, they’ll also bet a record amount on the Big Game,” said Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the AGA. “Just like football, sports betting has never been more popular than it is today. The casino gaming industry is leading the conversation around a new approach to sports betting that enhances consumer protections, strengthens the integrity of games and recognizes fans’ desire for greater engagement with sports.” Overall, AGA’s estimate found that Americans wagered $149 billion on sports in 2015, up from nearly $145 billion in 2014. Before last January’s Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl, AGA released its first-ever estimate predicting fans would wager $3.8 billion worth of illegal bets on the title game. Late last year, following months of study and deliberation, AGA’s Board of Directors issued a set of recommendations that marked a major shift in the industry’s approach to sports betting. AGA is building a broad...

EPL Round 23 Jan22

EPL Round 23

Our favorite Premier League Insider shares his thoughts on the full slate of fixtures for this coming weekend. As always you can see more of Jimmy’s work here or listen to his podcast here Norwich City v Liverpool Liverpool -0.5 and 2.5 goals It was 1-1 on Merseyside back in September but prior to that it was 5-0 to over 2.5 goals since April 2012 and four of those went over 4.5 goals. The signing of Stephen Naismith intrigues me for Norwich as since he was left out by Everton they have become far easier to play against. I think it’s a very astute signing as he is a little rat of a player and he could help ignite a survival bid for the Canaries. I will stick with the trends here and grab a bit of over 2.5 goals. Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Spurs -0.25 and 2.25 goals When you don’t score a goal in five games it’s pretty hard to get any points from games. Worrying times for Palace and without a genuine star striker to end this run their confidence is in danger of continuing on this downward spiral. It doesn’t help when your keeper starts allowing shots to go in that your grandmother could save! Palace won this game 2-1 last season but at present its hard to see them scoring the two goals in a game that they will probably need to beat this in form Tottenham side. I really like Spurs in this spot. Leicester City v Stoke City Leicester -0.5 and 2.25 goals You all know that after a long time on the sidelines I hopped well and truly on the Leicester bus about seven weeks ago. However, there are signs that their challenge is beginning...

Championship Weekend Jan21

Championship Weekend

It’s championship weekend bitches!!!!  There may be only two games worth discussing but PayneInsider was in playoff form with his analysis of both including a best bet opportunity.  Dave Mason had some major news not only about how last weekend unfolded at his shop but in how betting patterns are emerging for this high profile Broncos vs Patriots clash.  Sit down, strap in, and be prepared for a magical NFL journey.  Don’t worry, we also made time for a brief Oscars respite and some quick flick reccos. Listen to the podcast here every week or subscribe on SOUND CLOUD and ITUNES Still looking for an offshore option? BetOnline has special offers just for our...

You Know You’re a Sports Bettor…...

We all go through a process as sports bettors. It takes time to learn the tricks of the trade from building a bankroll to managing our money to mastering a vernacular entirely it’s own.  Like other valuable life skills there’s a crawling process before walking that  ultimately leads to a full blown sprint if you’re lucky. These articles may or may not be autobiographical however if you spent the time to read this and recognize with where I’m coming from you’re in absolutely no position to judge. 10) Remembering major life milestones are recalled by the exact bets you made that day. 9) Rooting for favorite childhood teams is no longer possible because the new coach doesn’t cover the number more than 52% of the time. 8) Social calendars are disregarded in order to accommodate any in-game betting opportunity that presents itself. 7) Sending money to Hector Gonzalez in Belize City, Belize happened as frequently during college as depositing into your savings account.  There’s also a good chance the money you intended to grow for use on a Spring Break trip vanished when an obscure sportsbook closed its doors. 6) Dating season is limited to 6 weeks in the middle of summer. If a girl isn’t in love by the time football season starts odds of making the relationship work long term slip below 15%. 5) In reference to real world purchases you’ve applied the term units, nickels, or dimes often confusing sales people.  After all, financial decisions are governed by “how many bets” it will take to pay something off: movies, dinners, cars, etc… 4) Your bookie was in your wedding party 3) Every website you visit at the office is blocked by your employer Don’t believe this happens regularly? Click here submitted...

Oddsmaker’s Take Jan15

Oddsmaker’s Take...

Every oddsmaker handles major injuries differently, especially in the NFL.  Eventually the market settles on a number as wagering dollars flood into books.  This time of year keeping a game off the board for an extended period of time is revenue lost. However books need to balance the risk reward of hanging a price that might not correctly reflect the health of key contributors.  One of the largest offshore books waited until Friday to hang a price on Steelers vs Broncos; here are the thoughts of Shane Catford, head oddsmaker at Bookmaker, on establishing the proper line for Steelers @ Broncos. Another Ben Roethlisberger injury, and another delayed opening line. We just couldn’t expose ourselves by putting up a bad number without all of the necessary information. Big Ben is in the same tier as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers when it comes to value to a point spread or total. He’s worth minimum seven points to a spread. Prior to the Wild Card Round, our team was targeting a 4-point spread for a potential Pittsburgh-Denver matchup. Of course, everything changed once Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown were injured. If both Roethlisberger and Brown weren’t able to play, we’re looking at a 13- or 14-point spread. Once our sources were confident Big Ben was going to give it a go, we opened the line at Broncos -7. We obviously couldn’t use the initial line because of Roethlisberger’s playing condition and Brown’s availability. There aren’t many skill players other than quarterbacks that have enough value in our eyes to impact a line, but Antonio Brown does. He’s such a vital piece of their offensive scheme so we value him at 1-2 points, depending on the opponent. It remains to be seen how limited Roethlisberger will be...

EPL Round 22 Jan15

EPL Round 22

Enough of the nostalgia associated with the FA Cup; it’s back to the basics for English football at it’s highest level.  James Kempton is here with complete fixture analysis to get your wallet right for the weekend Click here to listen to his podcast Tottenham Hotspur v Sunderland Tottenham Hotspur -1.5 and 2.75 goals Spurs are unbeaten in the last eleven EPL meetings of the sides but interstingly only one of their eight wins was by more than one goal. Given those trends it’s hard to stomach the handicap line for Spurs in this game. If Spurs score early like Man City did at home to Sunderland it could get ugly. A pass for me though. Bournemouth v Norwich City Bournemouth -0.5 and 2.5 goals The Canaries won 3-1 in Norwich back in September and last season they avoided defeat in both games against Bournemouth including a 2-1 win on the south coast.  Bournemouth were priced up at minus half a goal for this midweeks game at home to West Ham. The line is priced the same here when they host a far inferior opponent than the Hammers and that puzzles me. After that loss though to West Ham maybe this is a fairer priced line for two teams I just can’t trust. Chelsea v Everton Chelsea -0.75 and 2.5 goals Quiz time! Name me the scorer of the last winning goal in EPL action for Everton at Stamford Bridge? It was Paul Rideout and it was November 1994. Some strong Everton teams have travelled to the capital to take on Chelsea in the last twenty years and none have come away victorious. Nothing I’ve seen from this lightweight Everton team makes me think they will head north with all three points but can...