War of Attrition: Bayern Munich vs Chelsea

Posted May 19, 2012 By Todd and has no comments yet.

Contributed by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)

The finale of the Champions League takes place today when Bayern Munich plays Chelsea at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Both teams have battled adversity to reach this night with Bayern playing 14 games (as they had to pre-qualify) and Chelsea having 12 encounters along the way. Both teams were dogs in their respective semi finals as they faced the might of the Spanish giants, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Incredible performances saw each side triumph and earn their place in this prestigious showpiece event.

Chelsea snatched an amazing 3-2 aggregate win over Barcelona with a resolute defensive display showing true English spirit. Their 2-2 away result in the Nou Camp in Barcelona was achieved despite playing much of the game with just 10 men. They were reduced in numbers due to the idiotic actions of talismanic captain John Terry who kicked a Barcelona forward away from the action and was given a straight red card. This only appeared to galvanise Chelsea’s resolve and drove them to a level of performance that not many felt such an old team would be capable of against a power like Barca. Given the straight red, John Terry’s services won’t be available for today’s championship. In addition to Terry, Chelsea will be without defender Ivanovic and midfielders Meireles and Ramires. Of the four absentees I see the loss of Ramires as critical. Chelsea will miss the young Brazilians energy and ability to close the opposition down and regain possession for the Blues. Along with the suspension issues, Chelsea has injury concerns to defenders Cahill and Luiz. Coach Di Matteo will keep his selections as close to the vest as possible to not give any advantage to Munich. This will mean leaving his line-up to the last minute giving the injured defensive duo every chance to make the starting 11. However, Chelsea’s lack of continuity in the selection process actually gives Bayern a huge edge in my opinion.

Bayern overcame the might of Ronaldo and Real Madrid via the penalty kick lottery to get to the championship. In typical German fashion, Bayern employed a tremendous work rate and soccer efficiency to overcome a more technically gifted side. Over the years German teams, both club and national, have proved masterful in their tournament play. They tend to peak at just the right time and this year has proved no different. Bayern also has line-up headaches following suspensions to defensive players Alaba, Badstuber, and Gustavo. However, they look to be a more fluid attacking outfit with talented attacking players Gomez, Ribery, Robben, and Schweinsteiger sure to cause the restricted Chelsea defence big problems. The defensive options available to Bayern coach Jupp Heynckes also appear to be deeper than that of Chelsea.

By a strange quirk of fate, this game is to be played in Bayern Munich’s own stadium. This is not some strange form of European tradition that hands one team home advantage but rather this game is supposed to be played on a neutral field. Just like Superbowl locations are decided years in advance, so are Champions League Final venues so this is more an exception to the rule than the norm. This is the first time though that a team has competed for this great trophy in their own city. I have wrestled in my mind with the possible advantages and disadvantages of playing in your own backyard: You have no issues of travel, time away from home, and you are comfortable in your surroundings. Does the constant home media attention begin to drain the players and give them no escape from the pressure? The Chelsea players are in unfamiliar surroundings away from their family but will remain together as a group looking to escape from the limelight into their hotel. The ticket allocation remains normal for such a game. Both teams initially received the same amount of tickets but the geographical proximity for Munich fans should ensure they heavily outnumber the Chelsea supporters. This normally means any marginal officiating calls will go to the team with the more vociferous supporters. I suppose the answer to that question may only become apparent when Portugese referee Pedro Proenca blows his whistle to signal the end of the game.

Naturally I think it is fair to assume that a game of such magnitude will bring nervous tension that would materialise itself into a cautious approach. A cautious approach is normally associated with a low goals total yet such an assumption for this the biggest club game in the world would be incorrect. There have been at least two goals in the last eight finals and six of the last ten Champions League Finals have seen the over 2.5 ticket cash. With all the changes both teams are set to make defensively, I believe the over is the side you want to be with if betting into that market.

Very rarely do you find a such a strong short favourite in a Champions League Final as Bayern Munich is today. I cannot find a weakness though in the price as they seem to have everything going in their favour for this game. Home advantage, a better squad, and more favourable pre game luck in terms of injuries and suspensions should allow them to lift the cup late Saturday evening.

 

Categories: International Sports

Prominence at Pimlico

By Todd and has no comments yet.

Contributed by horse racing expert John Valter (follow him on twitter @kyderbyjay)

I’ve finally stopped celebrating my brilliant Kentucky Derby handicapping and sat down to the business of tackling the 2012 Preakness, the middle jewel of racing’s Triple Crown. It’s a bit of a different race than the Derby and requires a different handicapping mindset. While recent Derbys have produced some winners who completely disappeared after wearing the garland of roses (Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver), the Preakness has produced a number of champions who either failed in the Derby (Afleet Alex, Curlin, Lookin At Lucky) or didn’t race in Kentucky at all (Bernardini, Rachel Alexandra). Even last year’s Preakness winner, Shackleford, looks to be the superior horse to the last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom.

In terms of envisioning how the race will be won, it’s actually unlikely to be run that much different than the Derby, just with a smaller field. There is a common perception that speed horses tend to fare much better over the Pimlico oval but it’s not necessarily accurate. Shackleford did win last year after battling with Flashpoint for the early lead, however more often than not the winner tends to come from off the pace.

Here’s my look at the field (just 11 horses, smallest since 2008), dividing those horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby from those that didn’t:

The New Shooters: Pretension is the only horse with a win over the track, a minor stakes race on Derby Day. However, he was a well-beaten 9th in his race prior in the Illinois Derby against a much better field and looks hopelessly overmatched here…Zetterholm, trained by Richard Dutrow, has won three straight, albeit all against New York state-bred horses and does not appear to be fast enough…Dale Romans opted to save Derby 3rd-place finisher Dullahan for the Belmont, but comes to Maryland with Cozzetti, who most recently was seen finishing 4th in the Arkansas nearly ten lengths behind Bodemeister.  I see no sign that he’s ready to cut into that deficit here today…Teeth Of The Dog looks like he could be a pace challenger for Bodemeister, but that’s about it for the Michael Matz trainee…Of the new shooters, I am most intrigued by Tiger Walk. It’s not so much that I think he’s much of a threat for the win — (his lone wins are over suspect competition at Laurel) — as much as I think he’s a threat to hit the final pay table. He’s the only one of this group that has shown a consistent ability to pass horses down the stretch and that alone makes him a useful entry on the bottom part of your exotics. I don’t think that I’n going out on a limb when I say that the winner of the 2012 Preakness will be from among those that raced in the Kentucky Derby.

The Derby Boys: I described Optimizer as “overmatched” in my Derby preview, and I see no reason that anything is different two weeks later. His entry here reeks of D. Wayne Lukas wanting to be involved in the action, and nothing more…Daddy Nose Best was a horse that attracted a lot of attention in Louisville, and at 14-1, was actually a shorter price than I’ll Have Another (15-1): that won’t be happening in Baltimore. I wasn’t a big fan of his prospects in Kentucky, and I’m even less of a fan after his dull 10th place finish. In a race in which many had trip excuses, Daddy seemed to actually stay out of trouble but showed he’s a cut below the top 4…Went The Day Well was among those who I hyped two weeks ago and he ran a strong 4th at 30-1, beaten by only 2 ½ lengths passing both Bodemeister and Dullahan shortly after the wire. He made up 18 lengths in the final ¾ mile and appears to be among the most talented horse in his generation. With a good trip, he is certainly capable of winning here but I fear that much like the Derby, he will leave himself with too much work to do when it matters most…Creative Cause had to go 8-wide on the far turn in the Derby yet rallied for 3rd before being passed near the wire to eventually finish 5th. After repeated viewings of the Derby, I am convinced that no horse had a worse trip than he did and somehow he still finished just three lengths from the front. It was his first finish off-the-board, but it may be just as impressive a performance as any he has had. As the Santa Anita Derby demonstrated, not much separates he and I’ll Have Another. He’s a major win candidate…Bodemeister is the real wild card in this bunch. Yes, his Derby was impressive, but based on the respective hype and attention being paid he and the winner you’d think he was the one still alive for the Triple Crown. His strategy here is simple – gun for the lead, and don’t look back. It very nearly worked in the Derby and there sure seems to be a lot of people who think it will work here I’m just not one of them. I don’t think he is capable of pairing a similar effort two weeks later and I also don’t think he’s capable of setting a moderate pace. Even if he makes an easy lead, I still suspect that Mike Smith will push him along at a breakneck pace. If he wins here, he’s worth the hype but he’ll do it without my support…What can I say about I’ll Have Another that I didn’t say two weeks ago? The race unfolded exactly as I predicted, and the horse that benefitted was also the horse I predicted. This time around, I think that he will need to race closer to the lead but I see absolutely no reason that he’s not capable of doing so. He simply looks like the best of his generation, with a perfect running style for this race. No way will you get a price approaching the gift from the gods that was his 15-1 price in the Derby; 3-1 seems more likely. Still, jump on it because come Saturday night, there will be be a blanket of black-eyed susans on his back.

Categories: Horse Racing

There’s no place like home

Posted May 17, 2012 By Todd and has no comments yet.

Contributed by Steve Koerber (follow him on twitter @ajsplays)

Sometime in the near future a few of these 15 pitchers will figure out how to pitch on the road and will no longer make this list.  Let’s call it the “Wandy Rodriguez complex” since the now reliable Astros starter used to be an auto-play at home while a mandatory fade on the highway.  Zack Greinke is the closest arm to removing himself from this list after coming off his most impressive road start as a Brewer on Tuesday. Combine that with his strong finish on the road in 2011 and he might finally be showing the command expected of an ace away from Miller Park. James McDonald hasn’t been bad on the road to start the year but is still 2 runs worse when he leaves the confines of PNC. Justin Masterson looked like he turned the corner last year but has since reverted back into his old self through  the early portions of 2012. A great start by Jaime Garcia Wednesday night brought his 2012 road numbers down but I’d like to see him do it with some consistency in places other than San Francisco since AT&T park remains a haven for fly ball arms.

In my opinion, some of these pitchers are a lot better to factor into totals than sides. For example, Clayton Richard has been very good at Petco Park yet his offense is still terrible so betting on him can be difficult. The Padres have lost 13 of his last 16 home Starts while scoring 2 runs or less in 12 of those games so I prefer to look under the total every time he goes to the bump in southern California. Below are a list of arms with the most marked difference between home and road splits, a must have list for any true baseball handicapper.

Clayton Richard

2012
Home – 4 Starts – 2-2 – 2.31 ERA – 0.91 WHIP
Away – 4 Starts – 0-3 – 7.99 ERA – 1.77 WHIP

2011
Home – 08 Starts – 1-5 – 2.30 ERA – 1.11 WHIP
AWAY – 10 Starts – 4-4 – 5.30 ERA – 1.71 WHIP

2010
Home – 17 Starts – 6-6 – 3.15 ERA – 1.22 WHIP
AWAY – 16 Starts – 8-3 – 4.41 ERA – 1.61 WHIP

PETCO Park – 35 Starts – 13-13 – 2.67 ERA – 1.13 WHIP
Everywhere Else – 75 Games/58 Starts – 19-20 – 5.29 ERA – 1.63 WHIP

—–

Tommy Hunter

2012
Home – 4 Starts – 2-1 – 2.42 ERA – 1.04 WHIP
Away – 4 Starts – 0-1 – 7.43 ERA – 1.65 WHIP

2011
Home – 12 Games/6 Starts – 3-1 – 3.94 ERA – 1.27 WHIP
Away – 08 Games/5 Starts – 1-3 – 5.65 ERA – 1.47 WHIP

2010
Home – 12 Games/11 Starts – 7-0 – 3.06 ERA – 1.15 WHIP
AWAY – 11 Starts – 6-4 – 4.48 ERA – 1.34 WHIP

2009
Home – 10 Starts – 6-3 – 3.36 ERA – 1.22 WHIP
Away – 09 Starts – 3-3 – 5.01 ERA – 1.41 WHIP

2008
Home – 2 Starts – 0-1 – 10.61 ERA – 1.93 WHIP
Away – 1 Start – 0-1 – 48.60 ERA – 4.80 WHIP

Career
Home – 40 Games/33 Starts – 18-6 – 3.60 ERA – 1.22 WHIP
Away – 33 Games/30 Starts – 10-12 – 5.70 ERA – 1.47 WHIP

—–

Tim Hudson

2012
Home – 2 Stars – 2-0 – 3.00 ERA – 1.58 WHIP
Away – 2 Starts – 0-1 – 4.85 ERA – 1.08 WHIP

2011
Home – 19 Starts – 10-4 – 2.31 ERA – 1.01 WHIP
Away – 14 Starts – 6-6 – 4.57 ERA – 1.34 WHIP

2010
Home – 18 Starts – 11-5 – 2.48 ERA – 1.07 WHIP
Away – 16 Starts – 6-4 – 3.25 ERA – 1.24 WHIP

2009
Home – 4 Starts – 0-1 – 3.12 ERA – 1.19 WHIP
Away – 3 Starts – 2-0 – 4.41 ERA – 1.90 WHIP

2008
Home – 10 Starts – 8-1 – 2.57 ERA – 1.16 WHIP
Away – 13 Games/12 Starts – 3-6 – 3.75 ERA – 1.17 WHIP

—–

Matt Garza

2012
Home – 4 Starts – 1-0 – 1.91 ERA – 0.95 WHIP
Away – 3 Starts – 1-1 – 3.71 ERA – 1.18 WHIP

2011
Home – 17 Starts – 6-5 – 2.46 ERA – 1.12 WHIP
Away – 14 Starts – 4-5 – 4.56 ERA – 1.46 WHIP

2010
Home – 16 Games/15 Starts – 8-2 – 3.51 ERA – 1.18 WHIP
Away – 17 Starts – 7-8 – 4.27 ERA – 1.31 WHIP

2009
Home – 17 Starts – 5-5 – 3.24 ERA – 1.20 WHIP
Away – 15 Starts – 3-7 – 4.85 ERA – 1.34 WHIP

2008
Home – 15 Starts – 7-3 – 2.89 ERA – 1.18 WHIP
Away – 15 Starts – 4-6 – 4.53 ERA – 1.30 WHIP

—–

Paul Maholm

Career
Home – 100 Starts – 38-32 – 3.77 ERA – 1.30 whip
Away – 92 Starts – 19-43 – 5.06 ERA – 1.56 WHIP

—–

Justin Masterson

2012
Home – 4 Starts – 0-1 – 2.63 ERA – 1.17 WHIP
Away – 4 Starts – 1-2 – 9.00 ERA – 2.00 WHIP

2011
Home – 19 Games/18 Starts – 4-5 – 3.25 ERA – 1.28 WHIP
Away – 15 Starts – 8-5 – 3.15 ERA – 1.28 WHIP

2010
Home – 16 Games/13 Starts – 3-5 – 3.28 ERA – 1.21 WHIP
Away – 18 Games/16 Starts – 3-8 – 6.23 ERA – 1.81 WHIP

2009
Home – 22 Games/8 Starts – 4-5 – 3.34 ERA – 1.29 WHIP
Away – 20 Games/8 Starts – 0-5 – 5.81 ERA – 1.63 WHIP

Career
Home – 81 Games/48 Starts – 16-16 – 3.21 ERA – 1.25 WHIP
Away – 73 Games/47 Starts – 13-25 – 4.98 ERA – 1.54 WHIP

—–

Jered Weaver

2012
Home – 4 Starts – 4-0 – 0.83 ERA – 0.49 WHIP
Away – 4 Starts – 1-1 – 5.91 ERA – 1.64 WHIP

2011
Home – 15 Starts – 8-2 – 1.84 ERA – 1.00 WHIP
Away – 18 Starts – 10-6 – 2.93 ERA – 1.02 WHIP

2010
Home – 16 Starts – 6-4 – 1.86 ERA – 1.00 WHIP
Away – 18 Starts – 7-8 – 4.14 ERA – 1.15 WHIP

2009
Home – 17 Starts – 9-3 – 2.90 ERA – 1.06 WHIP
Away – 16 Starts – 7-5 – 4.78 ERA – 1.46 WHIP

2008
Home – 14 Starts – 6-5 – 3.71 ERA – 1.13 WHIP
Away – 16 Starts – 5-5 – 4.91 ERA – 1.43 WHIP

Career
Home – 88 Starts – 45-18 – 2.49 ERA – 1.07 WHIP
Away – 97 Starts – 42-30 – 3.97 ERA – 1.24 WHIP

—–

Yovani Gallardo

Career
Home – 63 Games/62 Starts – 31-16 – 3.28 ERA – 1.21 WHIP
Away – 63 Games/61 Starts – 24-22 – 4.17 ERA – 1.41 WHIP

—–

Zach Greinke

As a Brewer
Home – 19 Starts – 13-0 – 2.71 ERA – 1.05 WHIP
Away – 17 Starts – 7-7 – 4.74 ERA – 1.35 WHIP

—–

Nick Blackburn

Career
Home – 64 Games/60 Starts – 25-17 – 3.80 ERA – 1.34 WHIP
Away – 69 Games/65 Starts – 15-33 – 5.54 ERA – 1.57 WHIP

—–

Mike Pelfrey (DL)

2012
Home – 2 Starts – 0-0 – 2.63 ERA – 1.32 WHIP
Away – 1 Start – 0-0 – 1.50 ERA – 1.67 WHIP

2011
Home – 15 Starts – 3-5 – 3.94 ERA – 1.38 WHIP
Away – 19 Games/18 Starts – 4-8 – 5.49 ERA – 1.56 WHIP

2010
Home – 19 Starts – 10-3 – 2.83 ERA – 1.27 WHIP
Away – 15 Games/14 Starts – 5-6 – 4.95 ERA – 1.54 WHIP

2009
Home – 17 Starts – 6-5 – 3.72 ERA – 1.35 WHIP
Away – 14 Starts – 4-7 – 6.72 ERA – 1.73 WHIP

2008
Home – 18 Starts – 8-7 – 3.02 ERA – 1.16 WHIP
Away – 14 Starts – 5-4 – 4.76 ERA – 1.66 WHIP

Career
Home – 83 Games/81 Starts – 29-26 – 3.64 ERA – 1.34 WHIP
Away – 70 Games/68 Starts – 21-28 – 5.30 ERA – 1.61 WHIP

—–

James McDonald

Career
Home – 53 Games/29 Starts – 11-7 – 3.04 ERA – 1.31 WHIP
Away – 49 Games/25 Starts – 9-15 – 4.81 ERA – 1.51 WHIP

—–

Jason Vargas

Career
Home – 62 Games/53 Starts – 22-18 – 3.57 ERA – 1.20 WHIP
Away – 64 Games/53 Starts – 10-24 – 5.30 ERA – 1.45 WHIP

—–

Jaime Garcia

2012
Home – 3 Starts – 1-1 – 3.66 ERA – 1.58 WHIP
Away – 5 Starts – 2-1 – 3.70 ERA – 1.36 WHIP

2011
Home – 15 Starts – 9-4 – 2.55 ERA – 1.11 WHIP
Away – 17 Starts – 4-3 – 4.61 ERA – 1.54 WHIP

2010
Home – 14 Starts – 6-4 – 1.74 ERA – 1.15 WHIP
Away – 14 Starts – 7-4 – 3.82 ERA – 1.51 WHIP

Career
Home – 38 Games/33 Starts – 17-10 – 2.49 ERA – 1.19 WHIP
Away – 40 Games/36 Starts – 13-8 – 4.19 ERA – 1.48 WHIP

—–

Jeremy Hellickson

2012
Home – 5 Starts – 3-0 – 1.44 ERA – 1.11 WHIP
Away – 4 Starts – 1-0 – 5.19 ERA – 1.44 WHIP

2011
Home – 14 Starts – 6-5 – 2.54 ERA – 1.01 WHIP
Away – 15 Starts – 7-5 – 3.41 ERA _ 1.32 WHIP

2010
Home – 4 Games/2 Starts – 2-0 – 2.35 ERA – 0.85 WHIP
Away – 6 Games/2 Starts – 2-0 – 4.29 ERTA – 1.29 WHIP

Career
Home – 23 Games/21 Starts – 11-5 – 2.28 ERA – 1.01 WHIP
Away – 24 Games/20 Starts – 10-5 – 3.80 ERA – 1.33 WHIP

Categories: MLB

Prop-er way to bet the Semifinals

Posted May 16, 2012 By Todd and has no comments yet.

Contributed by Emile (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype)

Thanks to continued attrition and plainly apparent gulfs in class among the combatants, the trends that will govern the NBA’s conference semis have begun to reveal themselves. Following up on Part I of my look at NBA playoffs prop culture, a quick rundown of what to look for going forward as the final eight lock horns:

Matchups to Watch: Conference Semifinals, Part II

Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers

Got It Made: No one’s rockin’ the throwback look this spring quite like Kevin Garnett. In eight 2012 postseason contests, KG has been exceptional. Not “good for his age,” downright elite. In six games against the Hawks and one against Philly, he’s posted a 23.7 PER (in the 2004 postseason, during which he collected his MVP trophy, his PER was 25) and an awesome .241 Win Shares/ 48 minutes. During the regular season (admittedly a larger and more meaningful sample), only LeBron James (a silly .298) and Chris Paul (a batshit-but-sane-by-comparison .278) bettered this mark, with no one else topping .230.

There is a case to be made that Garnett’s recent dominance – 16+ points five times, including 28 and 29 in his last two games; 11+ rebounds six times; 27+ points + rebounds six times (thanks to that Game 2 buzzer beater!), including four games of 32+ – may be setting the stage for a fade opportunity, but with an all-timer in legitimate don’t mess with greatness mode, Philly’s difficulty in defending bigs ,  and KG’s P+R lines still in the 26/26.5 range, I’d hold off on betting on a correction coming anytime soon.

Look To Fade: Jrue Holiday proved the most productive (if not always efficient) point guard in the east outside of Massachusetts in Round 1. Despite failing to hit even 39% of his shots in four of six games against the Bulls, Holiday found a way to grind out 14+ points in each game (including 20+ twice) and handed out 6 assists on three occasions. His 22.8 points + assists per game in Round 1 drained much of the value in his lines, which started the playoffs at 18/18.5 but had crept past 21 by Games 5 and 6. It appeared possible that Saturday night’s 8-point (on 3-of-13), 4-assist dud may bring about a correction, but his 18 and 3 assists on Monday night likely put a cap on any value generated.

In 7 regular season games against the Celtics since the start of last season, Holiday has managed to shoot better than 42% from the field once and has topped 18 P+A twice. Combine this with the Celtics’ stellar defense against opposing lead guards (17.5 and 7.6 assists/48, 41.6% eFG and 11.6 PER) and precipitous declines in productivity with Avery Bradley on the floor, and the true value may lie in riding Jrue back into the teens.

Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers

Got It Made: As one can reasonably surmise, James Harden is playing some decent ball of late.  That Harden has only topped the 16.5/17 scoring mark at which the market currently sits twice in four postseason games (he had 15 in Game 2) is attributable largely to his 28-minute per game average. The Thunder are fresh off avenging last spring’s playoff demise with an opportunity to settle a 2010 playoff score with the Lakers and, y’know, it’d presumably be fun for Harden to hang a couple of 30s on the dude that rang his bell three weeks ago.

Despite logging just 24 (uncharacteristically inefficient) minutes in OKC’s Game 1 embarrassment of the Lakers, Harden was able to grind out the 17 needed to cash some tickets. With the season now firmly in its home stretch, look for these figures (in games still in question) to hit the mid-30s and 20+ a night… likely for the remainder of Harden’s career.

Look To Fade: For those unfamiliar with my allegiance, I am a lifelong Laker diehard. I am also, as often as my brain will allow, an optimist. One that, even when presented with considerable value, does NOT wager against my guys. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, absurdly gifted and intermittently dominant though they are, have come to consistently test my resolve  on visceral emotion alone. Often in these cases, a deep breath and a glance at the numbers reveals the error of being guided by one’s gut; this time, not so much.

The more consistent and productive of the Lakers’ twin towers, Bynum has – with some maddening exceptions – cranked out some of his best ball of season in recent weeks. In 18 games since April 4, only three times has he failed to tally more than 25 points + rebounds, eight times managing a 32+ mark. Under normal circumstances this type of production turns a guy into a veritable ATM machine.  Unfortunately, with his P+R lines residing permanently north of 31 and requiring little more than a single stellar outing to creep to 32, ‘Drew’s proven a value trap. Though he posted 20 and 14 in the Lakers’ Game 1 debacle, Bynum has topped the 30 P+R mark just once in six previous meetings with the Thunder, hitting just 5-of-15 shots twice this season against OKC.

Though I will not actively be taking positions in opposition of Andrew Bynum, I cannot in good conscience ignore the value in doing so. The story with Pau Gasol is a far simpler one: Were he to suit up for any other team in the playoff field, we’d have seen a serious correction in his P+R lines – which remain steadfast at 27/27.5 – if not out and out relegation from the ranks of the prop-worthy. After a late season stretch in which he posted 27+ P+R nine times in 12 games, Pau has managed the feat just eight times in his last 19 games, with only one such performance in 8 playoff outings.

Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers

Got It Made: No need to get cute here. It’s LeBron James.

While any money down on LeBron is live, a bit of value may be had in his rebounds + assists lines which at 15.5 may look a tad rich to some. In four meetings with the Pacers this season, LeBron posted no worse than 14 R+A – in line with his season average. With the stakes raised and Bosh’s status uncertain, look for Game 1’s 32- 15- 5 to become, if not the nightly norm, not terribly far off.

Look To Fade: Roy Hibbert has played some excellent ball the past month and a half, posting 22+ points + rebounds (the prevailing market all year has been 22/23) in six of his last 11 in the regular season. After falling short in two straight to start the playoffs (it’s worth nothing that he grabbed 13 rebounds in each game, but only scored a combined 12 points), he’s totaled 25+ P+R in three of his last five.

With that said, Roy looks to be the front line player in this series with the greatest potential for wild swings in performance. After a 17-game stretch in which he did not commit more than four fouls in a game (and he even committed four just twice), Hibbert’s committed at least four in five of 12 games, including three of his last six. Hibbert is certainly live on any given night, but it’s also more than conceivable that any game in which LeBron and Dwyane Wade are attacking the paint with particular vigor will be a minefield for him. Hibbert was tagged with five fouls in Game 1 and it’s reasonable to believe that he will spend much of the coming week wary of the whistle.

Categories: NBA

Western Conference Prop Culture

Posted May 15, 2012 By Todd and has 1 comment.

Contributed by Emile A (follow his prop advice on twitter @hardwoodhype)

The NBA playoff field has been halved, and thus far the only certainty is that at the final buzzer in June we will have a new champion. We’ve lost a prohibitive favorite, though relentless nips from the injury bug foreshadowed the death knell.

Neither the class of the NBA’s Western Conference nor the stars form South Beach endured great difficulty in punching their respective tickets for Round 2, while the aforementioned gale of heartache ripped through the Windy City. Both L.A. squads parlayed commanding 3-1 series leads into grind-it-out Game 7 victories and the Pacers disposed of (for now) SVG’s shorthanded-but-game Magic, while a Joe Johnson-led squad fared about as well as one would expect against the Celtics in May.

The first of two installments on the opening round that was, the second round that is and an update on NBA prop culture:

San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers

Got It Made: Don’t overthink this. Tony Parker is now, by some margin, not only a catalyst but also the primary offensive threat on the presumed favorite out West.

Look to ride: While Parker’s points + assists line has steadily climbed this season and now hovers around 28/28.5 after starting the new year in the vicinity of 22/23, it’s hardly inflated. Parker earned his MVP candidacy during the regular season and did little to tarnish it against the Utah Jazz in Round 1, with games of 27 and 28, along with an 18- 9 in Game 3. He’s fared no worse against the Clippers of late, notching 28+ P+A in three of five meetings the past two regular seasons (including a 30- 10 on February 18), with one of the shortfalls a 14-point, 9-assist performance in short minutes in a blowout win this past December.

On top of all that, Chris Paul or not, it’s tough to see any opposing lead guard whose mobility is even slightly limited – by, say, a sore groin – having much success keeping Parker out of the lane.

Look To Fade: In his young NBA career, Griffin has actually fared quite well against the Spurs, hanging a 31-13 on them in December 2010, along with a 22-20 and a 28-9 earlier this season, However, I don’t know that I’d make a habit of betting on Dwight Howard, Kevin Love or LeBron James to hang 30+ P+R on the Spurs in the postseason. There’s no way I’m doing it with Blake especially given his injuries and erratic playing time as we saw in the Clips series win over Memphis.

Round 1 had its fair share of players that surprised and disappointed heading into round 2. Here’s a list of the commodities we think will be over valued and under valued as we get deeper into May. (Note: Joe Johnson deserved serious recognition but after doing a lengthy write-up, figured post mortem analysis wouldn’t make us money in round 2)

Outperformers

Darren Collison – After an inauspicious (I’m feeling generous) last half of April (4 regular season games and Games 1 and 2 v. Orlando) in which he failed to top 8 points or 5 assists, Collison busted out as one of Round 1’s most efficient performers, needing just 26 shots to score 40 points in Games 3-5 against the Magic. He was similarly efficient (10 points on 3-of-6; 6 assists) as the Pacers pushed the Heat for three quarters to open the conference semis.

Though he’s not performed terribly well against the Heat the past two seasons (10.2 points, 4.2 assists per in five regular season games), Chris Bosh’s injury may open the door for increased productivity. With LeBron James now forced to commit more attention to bolstering Miami’s interior defense, there may be some value in Collison at 18/18.5 points + assists, though I’d be wary of venturing much higher.

Spencer Hawes – Given the eggs he laid in Games 1 and 2 (a combined 7 points and 7 rebounds), it would be difficult to assert that a healthy Hawes swings the balance of power against a fully-staffed Bulls team. It is worth noting, however, that the flows flanking the Sixers’ post-All Star ebb coincide with his presence in the lineup. Additionally, the Celtics defended the center position worse than any other during the regular season (17.6 and 14.7 per 48 minutes; 16.3 PER).

Neither terribly consistent nor extraordinarily productive to close out the regular season (10+ points in just 8 of his last 17 games; 7+ rebounds in 10 of 17), in the last 10 days Hawes has regained his double-double form of the season’s opening month, averaging 15 and 10, with no fewer than 8 rebounds in any game and a solid 15 and 8 in a near-theft of Game 1 in Boston. However, with Saturday night representing his first (and thus far only, as he had eight points and 10 rebounds in Game 2) career double-figure scoring game in Boston. By some margin, his best offensive games of the opening round came at home, so for those taking a wait-and-see approach, Game 3 may present some value on pro-Hawes plays, in the 22/22.5 points + rebounds range.

James Harden – Thanks to OKC’s ultra-efficient disposal of the Mavericks, it’s been a minute since we last saw Harden in action. In these situations, a transcendent performance – particularly one more evident through less-known advanced metrics than those with which we grew up – sometimes takes on a sepia tone.

James Harden’s opening round performance against Dallas was simply exquisite. He made 20 of his 40 shots, including half of his 12 3-pointers (for a ridiculous, postseason-best 68% True Shooting Percentage), achieved a PER of 28.3 despite “using” just 23.4% of the Thunder’s possessions (Harden’s is admittedly a small sample, but here is some historical perspective; link to “some historical perspective”), averaged 128.2 points/100 possessions (second only to Darren Collison’s 133.4) and generated .320 Win Shares/48, which has only been topped eight times (link to “only been topped eight times”) in a single postseason (one is LeBron this year, at .3478) in NBA history.

More to come on Mr. Harden in tomorrow’s installment…

Underperformers

“I thought I played well, especially with the kind of season it was. We had the best record again in basketball, won our division, had the top seed again, that’s all that matters, yo.”      -          Carlos Boozer, born champion

Blake Griffin – Simply put, Griffin carries an unearned superstar price tag. Seldom will one find a points + rebounds line for Griffin south of 30.5 (though 30/29.5 may be in play in San Antonio), despite the fact that in his last 33 games he’s posted a 30+ figure just 14 times. Just seven of these 14 outings came against playoff competition – two of them in seven actual playoff tries against the Memphis Grizzlies.

 

Categories: NBA

Take it to the Limit

Posted May 12, 2012 By Todd and has no comments yet.

Every pointspread is not created equally. A bookmaker’s confidence level varies by sport since he has to be willing to take the biggest bets in markets believed to be most efficient for long term profitability. However, efficiency doesn’t imply the numbers are air tight but rather indicates there is enough money being wagered on a game to limit overall liability. No one believes (nor will any bookmaker tell you) that the same amount of time is spent setting nightly NBA props as goes into establishing weekly NFL lines because the market cap isn’t close to the same size. Sharp bettors know they won’t be able to bet enough on props to make it their primary source of revenue so they don’t invest their time in a market that can’t sustain them. Given the 100x increase in volume a sportsbook sees on Browns vs Seahawks compared to O/U Kevin Durant made FG’s, we’d be crazy not to allocate our focus primarily to the NFL game in this example. Like any successful business, the majority of time is dedicated towards the most profitable pursuits, allowing us to create tighter markets where comfort levels increase with larger bet size.

To understand the relative strength of a betting line from a bookmaker’s perspective, bettors need to look no further than the limits being offered to them on a particular event. Among the 4 major sports, pro football provides gamblers the greatest opportunity for large wagers because the market size for a single game is far superior to any other sport. As a result of more money being wagered on a sporting event (think Superbowl), it means each big bet that enters the pool creates a smaller ripple than a 10k bet would on a WNBA side when handle for the entire game might be 11k.

When it comes to the business of big bets, it doesn’t make fiscal sense for books to offer huge limits on events that allow the player to gain an overwhelming edge. Arena football is a prime example of a market that has a niche among professionals but quite honestly doesn’t warrant a ton of time being committed to it by bookmakers. There is limited public money wagered there to stabilize the pools so prices fluctuate wildly from the open based on sharp action alone. Even after limit bets flood in and adjustments are made, there’s a good chance the market still remains highly inefficient and volatile.

Sure, I know what everyone is thinking that it sounds like I’m making excuses for my fellow colleagues and I when it comes to being conservative on certain sports. The reality is sportsbooks are a business like any other and the goal is to make money on every market we open weekly, seasonally, or annually. When a sport attracts attention from both the recreational bettor and the professional , it gives us the coveted balance and increased handle we need to offer larger limits. For the sharp gambler, winning means finding one line to exploit and capitalizing whereas the bookmaker striving to be competitive needs to offer prices on over 100 events each and every day.  Call us soft, scared, or a litany of other adjectives but know the 11/10 helps to build a bookmaker safeguard however it doesn’t deter the sharpest gamblers in the world from drawing us into a daily cat and mouse game composed of seeking inefficient markets and exploiting value.

Categories: Thinking like the pros

May 9 with 3HL the Zone – Nashville

Posted May 10, 2012 By Todd and has 1 comment.

Click here to listen

Breaking down the NHL and NBA playoff picture along with discussions of what the slow season for sports betting means to us in Vegas

Categories: Media

Art of Hedging

By Todd and has no comments yet.

Don't see it as foregoing profit,
view it as money you've already earned

 

Hedging Sports Wagers, The GambLou perspective (for more great sports info follow him on twitter @Gamblou )

As discussed plenty in earlier GambLou blogs, we hold a substantial future ticket on the Kings to win the West which has now left us multiple options for profit. We purchase future tickets not necessarily with the intentions of actually cashing them, but rather to give ourselves a chance to lock in a playoff profit in some way, shape, or form.

Let’s review our potential options if we’re sitting on a Kings ticket from the beginning of the postseason:

Scenario 1: We hold our longshot ticket at 11-1 and allow the Kings to finish their work, win the conference, and move to the Stanley Cup Finals. Pretty straight forward with dynamic profit potential but also full of risk given our initial wager amount.

Scenario 2: Hedge the future wager to insure bottom line profit and eliminate risk altogether. So (the standard $100.00 dollar example) we take the Yote’s in the series to win half of what our future ticket would pay risking $400 to win $600 . If the Yote’s win the series, we bottom line profit $500.00. If the Kings win at the original $100.00 wager for example, the gross win is $1,100.00 with a net profit of $700.00.

Uncle Louie’s single point of focus is “Profitable Sports Gaming” not ‘all or nothing wagering’!

While many would look at the Kings recent puck prowess and decide to ride the wager, we wouldn’t think of it nor should the seasoned sports investor. We have an opportunity to take a no risk profit of either 5 units or 7 units (we still profit more if the Kings win) in this particular scenario.

We are business people here and have discussed profit as our single point of emphasis and we live by that mantra. Uncle Louie is a grinder day in and day out, there’s no other way to look at things. We take profit whether nominal or substantial and move to the next opportunity that will inevitably present itself in sports. We preach making our gaming decisions like running a small business with the end goal having more good days than bad days. Our goal is to continue to compile small profitable outcomes rather than look for the lottery ticket score. Any smart business person would make the same choice and while this is our decision in this specific instance, there’s no reason to judge or criticize others who choose to approach the situation differently.

Our view of the Coyotes-Kings series:

In our opinion, the Kings have some questions to address for Ol’ Uncle Louie.

  1. How will they react to being the hunted for the first time this postseason instead of doing the hunting?
  2. How will they handle that most dangerous word in sports: expectation?
  3. How about the natural reaction (as the Predators did) to look at this Coyote Ugly team of no names (Doan, Whitney and Smith excluded) and avoid underestimating them?
  4. How will LA approach a red hot goalie in Mike Smith since this will be the first time they don’t have an overwhelming edge in net this postseason?

Bottom line for us is we made the price considerably lower on LA for the series than books chose to use so it begs the question, what are we missing?

  • LA walked through the number 1 seed, Canucks 4 games to 1, then swept a talented but outmatched number 2 seed in St Louis. Suddenly LA catches a team who has surpassed expectations thus far much like themselves and quite possibly true power numbers haven’t been adjusted the right way.
  • Cali is close to Las Vegas and there will be public action galore on the Kings so there may be some existing and continued bias. However, my belief is there may be some Kings liability in future books and using a price shaded to LA discourages more Kings money from coming into the market
  • The Yote’s style of play, ‘from the goal out,’ and their relative lack of big names make it easy for folks not deep into this puck platform to underestimate this group.

Our decision to Hedge our bet and take the money and run in this series is based as much on pocketing bottom line profit as it is on the fact that in our opinion the Yote’s will match up favorably with the Kings. These teams know each other; hatred will show up early and often with these two fast aggressive squads.

When opportunity for profit presents itself in sports investing eliminate risk and maximize results. In the end, the name of the game is cashing tickets, not looking for the big score.

Interested in reading more about playoff hedging and arbitrage? Check out the official Gamblou Blog

Categories: NHL, Thinking like the pros

MLB Weekly Watch

Posted May 8, 2012 By Todd and has 12 comments.

Contributed by JEFF WILLIAMS (follow him on twitter @SLIMrosco)

Even though the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS struggled heading into Arizona, I really like the way this team is playing.  Over the weekend they lost 2 of 3 to a suddenly hot Astros team but rebounded last night with a solid offensive showing posting a 9-6 win.  Chase Field is known for producing runs when the spring/summer temperatures rise, and one thing you will learn about me, I LOVE to play games ‘OVER’ the total (insert square jokes here).  As a result, this series appears to be right in my wheel house as an offense lover’s dream.  Entering last night, a couple Cardinal players were really stroking the ball over their past 6; Furcal .417 with 10 hits and 7 runs scored, Jay 9 hits and a .409 average, Holliday 6 runs batted in and a .391 average, and Beltran .353 with 2 home runs and 8 runs batted in.  Last night they didn’t disappoint as Furcal, Holliday, and Beltran all went yard and combined to go 5-13 with 4 RBI’s and 3 runs scored. The Diamondbacks started their recent road trip off hot, but lost 5 of their last 6 games.  Battling some injuries and players not playing up to their full potential, the D-Backs are being overvalued right now especially in their own building and I believe you’ll have opportunity to “buy” the Cards at a reasonable price all series.

OTHER TEAM ON MY RADAR:

L.A. ANGELS

Yes, we all know Pujols has finally hit his first home run on Sunday.  Big freakin deal.  What I think is the bigger story here, is that this team gets to head to Minnesota and play the Twins for three games for the 2nd time this year!  That could be just the boost they need assuming this trip goes better than their first one did where the team went 1-2.  After that, they head to Texas for a weekend series with the Rangers which is as important as a divisional series in May possibly can be for the Halos.  I expect the Angels to sweep the Twins and then head to Texas with some confidence.  This could be the start to a good little run by the Angels.

 

Categories: MLB

Reducing Risk by Parlaying for Payouts

Posted May 7, 2012 By Todd and has 14 comments.

Courtesy of Peej the Professor (follow him on twitter @Peej___)

Whether it’s totals or picking straight up winners, playing staggered parlays can allow you to eliminate heavy juice in any moneyline sport. For this time of year, a methodology like this can easily be applied to both the NHL and MLB to avoid those somewhat dangerous chalky favorites. Sunday provided a great example to illustrate such an opportunity even if the parlay didn’t actually hit. Since we’re in the business of information exchange and building a thought process, here’s how the day would have unfolded:

3:20 pm Los Angeles Kings/ St Louis Blues 5 under -165
7:35 pm New Jersey Devils / Philadelphia Flyers 5.5 under -150

If we like to play both games under 5 and our unit is $1000, we would be risking $3150 to win $2000.

If you’re a little more risk averse you could decide to play a two game parlay risking $1000 to win $1676.77.

Now because the Kings/Blues game would be completed well before the Devils/Flyers dropped the puck, we had several options. If the first game went over 5, we could then play the 2nd game straight up risking $1500 to win $1000. In the end, we are risking $2500 instead of $3150 and we could break even on our dime units whereas if we split playing each game straight, the juice would make us nearly a half unit loser for the day.

Here’s where things get interesting. If the first game comes in under the total, we have a decision to make before puck drops on the nightcap. We can of course leave the 2 team parlay and just risk the $1000 to win $1676.77.  However, for turning long term profit there will be plenty of gamblers making like Steve Miller “Take the Money and Run.” I personally would recommend playing the 2nd game over to guarantee ourselves a profit for the day because if we play the over at +130 (risking $1000 to win $1300), we could clear a 300 puck profit for the day. Ideally we’d be rooting against our straight hedge bet winning because we could net out 676.77 if the parlay hits.

I will add the caveat that this isn’t a fail proof method to winning consistently but it does provide an approach for limiting juice if you happen to take the collar and go 0-2. The real key is making sure the start times are staggered enough to keep your options open and find a sure fire way to end up in the black.

Categories: NHL, Thinking like the pros