Investment principles applied by savvy stock brokers mirror the same strategies employed by the sharpest sports bettors to insure long term success.  Every week bettors have opportunities to “buy” undervalued teams and “sell” those that are grossly overpriced.  Bruce Friedman provides his weekly take in market watch BUYS Kentucky (12-31 vs Louisville) a quick glance at UK’s recent schedule reveals a team that hasn’t covered a game in over a month and now plays host to a huge in state rival in Louisville; that same Cardinal side that was exposed against Georgetown on Wednesday.  Bettors looking to invest in UK at home always end up paying a premium (see UNC game) however this is a game they’ve had circled in Lexington and I expect max focus and effort in what amounts to a great spot backing the normally over valued and wallet breaking Wildcats. Duke (12-30 vs Pennsylvania, 1-4 @Temple): The last time Duke faced off against Penn it resulted in a 59 point victory.  Yes thats correct, 59 points.  I don’t expect anything near 59 points but this is a game where the Devils can name the number based on talent alone.  Meanwhile the next game following a projected drubbing of Penn is against another Philly 5 school in Temple that’s actually playing good ball. For my money I don’t see the Owls able to match-up with Duke’s shooters and this should be an easy week for Duke heading into conference play. Marquette (1-1 Villanova, 1-4 @Georgetown): Another team that’s been a covering nightmare (0-5-1 L6) and now jumps into the meat of their Big East schedule following a pathetic effort against Vandy where they were never competitive.  The Golden Eagles catch a scuffling Nova side at home who they should beat convincingly...

With conference play about to get started tonight, what better way to preview the nuts and bolts of college hoops than with power projections for the major conferences.  I’ll be adding a conference or two a night until we’ve covered all lined conferences.  Like always, comments and criticism welcomed and encouraged. 1.  North Carolina (14-2) in my opinion the most complete team in the league with the best assortment of athletes.  Problem for the Heels is they’re prone to losing games they shouldn’t but if the ACC gets a #1 seed come March, it will come from Chapel Hill. 2.  Duke (12-4) Duke has impressed me with some nice non-conference wins but what has me concerned is how they were outclassed in Columbus.  Coach K again lacks the athletes to make a push for the natl title but in a down year for the conference they should finish 2nd. 3.  Virginia (11-5) I’ve always been a huge Tony Bennet fan and even bigger one now that he has athletes to play his system.  Mike Scott deserves more natl attention than he garners and their defensive intensity makes for a tough out.  I worry about their inability to score for stretches however even with those question marks they’ll find their way into the big dance. 4. Florida St (10-6) It almost feels like a travesty that a team has to finish 4th behind the top three teams.  FSU is not the same without Singleton but they’re a group who plays lock down defense every single night.  Bigger question with the Noles is how many games they lose late because of Leonard Hamilton coaching blunders. 5. Miami (Fla) (9-7) Arguably one of the most talented starting 5’s in the league the Hurricanes lack depth and leadership. ...

Click here to listen David Bastl and I review all the marquee match-ups for NFL week 17 and discuss where the professionals are making the early moves

Click here to listen (segment 1) Clay, Brent, and I break down every bowl game involving an SEC team and make our picks the only way Vegas knows how to do it…ATS Click here to listen (segment 2) Bowl breakdown continued and Clay tries his hand as aspiring linemaker setting win totals for all 14 SEC schools in...

Monday, December 19 Closing line: Southern Miss -1.5  vs Arizona State Final : Southern Miss 64-61 ASU is quickly becoming the king of 2nd half meltdowns, the college hoops equivalent of Texas A&M football.  Leading 30-21 at the break, Sun Devil bettors felt pretty comfortable with their home underdog.  However fates quickly turned as USM erased the halftime deficit by the 12:14 mark of the second half tying the game at 34.  With 4:50 to go it was actually the Golden Eagles who built a 54-43 lead and seemed poised to run and hide themselves however ASU fought all the way back knotting the score at 61 with only 5 seconds left.  Southern Miss Forward Darrell Dodson (UK transfer) would have none of that talk though as he dashed the SunDevil’s cover draining a three at the buzzer squashing ASU’s improbable comeback.  The irony? Dodson wasn’t even supposed to play for USM and became the X-factor.   Tuesday, December 20 Closing line: NC State +1 vs St Bonaventure Final: Nc State 67-65 The game was back and forth the entire 40 minutes with neither team able to extend and take firm control. Tied at 65 with 3 seconds left, NC State’s CJ Leslie caught a full court baseball pass and in his own unique variation of the Christian Laettner play turned and hit a game winning jumper with .08 seconds left for a Wolfpack win.  Upon further review Leslie actually stepped out of bounds which would have negated the game winner and sent the game to OT. Officials didn’t review the play and Mark Gottfried’s team became the beneficiary of a fortuitous missed call.  Don’t believe me, here’s video evidence to prove it. Tuesday, December 20 Closing line: Utah St -5.5 vs UT-Arlington Final:...

Click here to listen (segment starts at 24 minute mark) Jody and I preview a few of the BCS bowls on tap along with a quick snapshot of the Pac12 hoops picture.  The real challenge? Trying to explain to him exactly what I do each and every day at the...

I asked the twitter community which holiday sports tradition was most enjoyable and some of the answers surprised me.  There were 4 listed responses for the survey with option 5 “other” open to respondent feedback.  Listed below the chart is a full breakdown of how people used the “other” categorization to make sure nothing slipped through the cracks. Sporting events included in OTHER in popularity of response: March Madness – St Patrick’s Day NHL Winter Classic – New Year’s Day US Open – Father’s Day Cricket, English Premier League, World Junior Championships – Boxing Day (thank you intl contingent) NCAA Lacrosse Championship – Memorial...

Joe Lunardi may be the most respected bracketologist out there but for my purposes here is how I would seed the top 48 teams in the land.  I’m ready for criticism to ensue so feel free to fire away especially given my irrationally high ranking of Vanderbilt amid early season struggles.  The Commodores are my premier blue chip stock and buy low candidate as we head into conference play.  With Xavier’s loss late last night to Hawaii the Musketeers have seen their stock tumble a bit with 3 straight losses but they should be able to right the ship in the coming weeks. #1: OSU, Syracuse, UK, UNC #2: Duke, Baylor, Florida, Uconn #3: KU, Mizzou, Wisconsin, Louisville #4: UNLV, Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown #5: St Louis, Michigan St, Indiana, Vandy #6: UVA, Michigan, Harvard, LBSU #7: Creighton, Wichita St, Mississippi St, Alabama #8: Kansas St, Pittsburgh, Florida St, WVU #9: Gonzaga, SDSU, Murray St, Iona #10: Ohio, St Mary’s, Belmont, Memphis #11: Stanford, UNM, BYU, Marshall #12: Detroit Mercy, Texas, Arizona, Texas...

There isn’t just one trait or magical formula that makes someone a successful gambler.  In a week long series I’ll dissect some of the attributes, skills, and lessons the best gamblers in the world have learned to make them consistent winners while the rest of us just dream about 53 percent. A small win is better than a big loss (Part 5) Who doesn’t want the big score when betting sports?  Whether it’s a huge dog moneyline, 7 team parlay, or a longshot in the futures market the reality is opportunities to bet small and cash large are few and far between.  Seeing value isn’t anticipating tickets with astronomical payouts cashing but rather giving yourself a positive expectation every time you place a wager.  By betting a 100-1 shot to win the NCAA title (see Xavier preseason odds) the methodology is the Musketeers only need to secure a sweet 16 birth to insure a return on investment.  Wiseguys don’t look to win big all the time instead they strive to find angles for winning consistently.  There are points where the sharpest gamblers take a position early in the week laying -2.5 on an NFL favorite knowing the price will hit 3 and allow them to “side” the game with zero risk.  What I mean by siding a game is you end up risking 2.2 units in total with full understanding the max risk is .1 units with potential upside of winning a full unit if the game falls 3.  Ideally the dream scenario is to lay the favorite -2.5 and grab the dog +3.5 in the pros since 15.8% of games fall exactly on a field goal (courtesy @wagerminds) and you’d only need to hit 1 out 20 to make this arbitrage approach profitable. ...

Looking for that final piece of information for handicapping the weekend card?  Former Las Vegas Sports Consultants owner Kenny White and I attack the biggest NFL games of the weekend along with the Hawaii, Champs Sports, and Alamo bowl including a heavy favorite that we put on upset...

Click here to listen Mark and I rehash last week’s results and stare the Vegas Bowl right in the eye along with the major matchups in the NFL this weekend.  Much to Mr Rodgers’ disappointment, no celebrity sitings at the...

Click here to listen The guys and I talk about major bowl line moves, marquee action in pro football, and how the pro basketball future markets are beginning to take shape after free agency