Masters Preview: Figuring out the Futures
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Masters Preview: Taking Stock of the Futures Market
Azaleas, instrumental music, a revival of the term “patrons” and the hushed tones of Jim Nantz. Yes, Masters Week is upon us and golf’s first major is officially up for grabs. This week brings golf bettors of all shapes and sizes out of the woodwork, eager to predict the man to don the coveted green jacket Sunday night. This tournament is particularly attractive to bettors for its (relative) lack of variables – it is the only major championship contested at the same venue each year, lending credence to historical results/data, and it has the smallest field of any major. While the U.S. and British Opens routinely have 140+ participants, this year’s Masters field of 97 is actually higher than usual. Factoring out amateurs and older past champions unlikely to contend, you are left with one of the smallest fields of “realistic contenders” of any tournament played this year.
Finding an Edge
As with most sports in the internet age, golf handicappers have no shortage of information at their fingertips. The key is deciphering which facts give you an edge and which are already priced into the line. In researching this event, one of the first tidbits you will come across is that no one has won The Masters in their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Fade the 14 first-timers in the field, right? It’s never that easy. Sadly, you are not the only one to come across this information, and the books have already factored this information into the price they are offering for Masters rookies like Keegan Bradley and Webb Simpson. So the key becomes finding an edge that the books may not be as aware of – take for instance K.J. Choi. A seasoned veteran with multiple top-10 finishes at Augusta to his name, his 2012 season has gotten off to a slow start, and his odds this week are longer than usual. Choi is currently dealing with some wrist tendinitis, though, which has largely contributed to his struggles this year. As Augusta National features minimal rough, the tendinitis is likely to affect him less than it did at courses like Doral and Bay Hill where he had to dig the ball out of 4″ grass. This nuance is likely not priced into Choi’s line and may offer value for those choosing to back him this week.
Understanding the Price
Similarly, it is important to examine carefully a line that may seem out of place. Relatively long odds on Martin Kaymer – currently 6th in the world rankings – may seem tempting. After all, the German was No. 1 in the world about a year ago, and has already won a major. The key to that price, though, is ball flight. Kaymer plays a consistent fade, and to date has not been able to effectively add the draw to his arsenal, which is necessary to attack holes like #2, #10 and #13 at Augusta National. As a result, he is still seeking his first made cut in his fifth Masters appearance, and suddenly his price makes a bit more sense.
Making the Weekend
In narrowing down potential futures bets, the goal is always to find the proverbial needle in the haystack – Charl Schwartzel, for example, was definitely a “long shot” before the tournament last year. So while answering the question of “who will win” is ideal, finding an answer to “who will contend on Sunday” is more likely to result in profit. Depending on the price acquired and the position on the leaderboard, a single well-placed futures ticket can offer a myriad of hedging opportunities over the weekend. A player like Johnson Wagner – who has finished in the top 30 in 8 of 10 events on Tour this year including a win in Hawaii, and who finished T-36 in his lone prior Masters appearance – could offer value and hedging opportunities at long pre-tournament odds even if he doesn’t win outright on Sunday.
As with any futures market, this week will be about developing a game plan, garnering information and shopping for the best price. Scoring in all three of those areas will likely help make your Sunday TV viewing both exciting and profitable.
For those more interested in the quick hit, tomorrow we will tackle finding value in head-to-head matchups. Until then, it’s pimento & cheese sandwiches for all.
