The Gambler’s Foursome Apr04

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The Gambler’s Foursome

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Masters Preview Part II: Finding Value in Matchups

Yesterday we examined the pre-tournament futures market, where the big score can be as tantalizing as it is elusive. In head-to-head matchups, though, cashing a ticket is far more attainable. Here are some keys to breaking down the H2H matchup market for The Masters this week:

Develop a Gameplan

It is easy to become overwhelmed upon perusing a full slate of golf betting options – first round, tournament matchups, top senior, top Australian, top player named after an animal, etc. The key is to put into place some guidelines and develop a plan that will help isolate lines with the most potential value. One rule that I tend to follow is to avoid single-round matchups early in the event, instead focusing on full tournament matchups. Much like betting a single NBA playoff game versus backing a team for a seven-game series, the prevailing thought is that the better golfer will rise to the top more consistently over the course of four rounds than across a single day. One-round matchups tend to have higher variance as a single shot or hole can decide a winner, and a variable outside of the bettor’s control – i.e. weather delays – can have a much more profound impact. Once play gets to the weekend, and golfers are in twosomes playing with someone at or near their same cumulative score, single-round matchup wagers can become more viable. Similarly, I avoid backing some of the juicier favorites in H2H matchups, especially in a smaller field event like The Masters. Unlike a Saints-Colts SNF game, the talent gap between these golfers is razor thin. A matchup line of -150 implies that the favored golfer wins 60% of the time to break even, and probably closer to 67% of the time if there is a large enough edge to compel a wager. Personally, I have a hard time believing anyone in this week’s field can beat another player head-to-head 2 out of 3 times with any consistency, so I tend to gravitate more toward lines that are closer to a toss up.

Year Winner Driving Rank Greens in Regulation Rank Putts per Round Rank
2011 Charl Schwartzel 44 18 2
2010 Phil Mickelson 2 3 13
2009 Angel Cabrera 11 14 12
2008 Trevor Immelman 4 2 4
2007 Zach Johnson 57 4 10
2006 Phil Mickelson 1 4 16
2005 Tiger Woods 4 2 10
2004 Phil Mickelson 9 1 23
2003 Mike Weir 39 37 4
2002 Tiger Woods 6 1 21
2001 Tiger Woods 1 1 37
2000 Vijay Singh 12 1 45

Understanding the Price

As with any wager in sports, H2H matchups are about price – as much understanding the price as getting the best available. Specifically with golf, linesmakers love a known entity. Consistent players like Matt Kuchar are highly attractive because more often than not, they know what they’re going to get; though rarely contending on Sunday, Kuchar has finished in the top 27 in seven of the last eight majors – impressive consistency across some of the toughest events each year. As a result, he will often emerge as one of the heaviest favorites in H2H betting, as bettors are forced to pay a premium to back what the books consider a player with minimal variance. On the opposite end of the spectrum you have a player like Angel Cabrera. Two major titles to his name, Cabrera rarely seems motivated outside of the game’s biggest stages. In the majors, though, the Argentine tends to excel – he has five top-10 finishes at Augusta and played in the final group on Sunday just last year. For the most part, books have a tough time pricing Cabrera in matchups as they can’t be certain how he’ll be perceived – either as a player in poor current form, or as one who historically plays well at Augusta. These are the lines that can sometimes offer players an edge if they can stomach backing a player without many top finishes in recent weeks.

Two Sides to Every Matchup

Another key to matchup wagering is not falling in love with a golfer for the entire week. If you have someone that you think is drastically undervalued or is due to play well, your best bet may in fact be a tournament future that we discussed earlier. Just because you think Bo Van Pelt is in for a big week, for instance, does not mean you should bet him in every available matchup. Instead, take a moment to look to the other side of the matchup options – which opponent appears most vulnerable? Which price is off by a few cents? Backing a golfer across multiple tournament matchups can often spread your bankroll too thin, when a single larger bet on the best matchup available might yield better results long-term. Note, though, that the opposite is not necessarily true; there can be value in playing against a single player in multiple matchups. Based on information on injury, course setup or conditions, I am much more inclined to fade a single player across 3-4 matchups than to back a single player in that same situation.

Utilizing Public Perception

Astute bettors can turn nearly any piece of information into an edge – as long as it creates a consistent result. In a sport filled with variables, one of the more consistent assets available is public perception. For example, the recency bias is in full effect for Hunter Mahan this week. Not only did he win a PGA Tour event only a few days ago, but every talking head now addresses him as “the only winner of multiple events this year on Tour.” Recreational bettors will flock to this week’s event, and will often bet according to what they most recently witnessed. Would Mahan have been a significant favorite over Keegan Bradley if the matchups were set a week ago? I’m not so sure. Speaking of Bradley, as discussed yesterday many lines will be slightly skewed against him as an Augusta “rookie.” He may be a player to back in spite of this, though, for several reasons. First, he is playing about as well as anyone on Tour in 2012. Second, the unseasonably warm temperatures this winter meant he was able to get in several practice rounds at Augusta when in years past the course would have been unplayable. Third, he has a mentor of sorts in Phil Mickelson who has helped him in practice rounds here. These are the types of factors that can help identify line value in a H2H matchup, sometimes causing you to go against public perception of the line, and I would not be shy about backing Bradley this week simply because it is his first Masters.

Good luck on any wagers you place, and enjoy what is arguably the best week in golf.