Written by @JustinZovas “Team A has got to take care of the football this week,” words every NFL fan will hear 1,047,683 times during the 2012 season. Turnover margin, the net difference between turnovers gained and turnovers lost , is a crucial factor in determining the outcome of a football game. Reasoning behind this is simple;  in order to score (for most teams), you need the ball and turnovers lead to a change of possesion.  End result? Turnover margins serve as a good reflection of a team’s success not only in terms of wins and losses but also how many games they’ll cover. For example, the Green Bay Packer’s turnover margin last season was +24 and the Packers ended the regular season 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS. Conversely, the Washington Redskins struggled to hang onto the ball finishing 5-11 SU and 6-9-1 ATS because of a -14 turnover margin (aka the Rex Grossman effect). Empirical data confirms the theory that turnover margins fluctuate from year to year and a team’s average turnover margin over the course of multiple seasons should end up close to zero. However, just like any other long term trend, there are random variances from year to year. Extremely high or low TO margins one season are typically followed by a massive regression to the mean the following year. As a byproduct of abnormally high (or low) turnover margins, significant changes from one year to the next create unrealistic expectations for teams. A team that experiences a dramatic improvement in turnover margin will their point spread inflate, reflecting an over valued side. After a season where a team benefits from fortuitous bounces, there will be a correction so we welcome the 2011 San Francisco 49ers into our 2012 equation. You’ll notice during the 9...

by Adam Chemerinksy (follow him on twitter @gamblingkings) The second grand slam is finally here. For novice tennis bettors, the easiest way to bet on a tournament is to simply pick the winner of the match: sounds easy enough right? Forget set betting and betting the tennis spread but rather just stick to money line wagering and remember that the Grand Slam lasts two weeks, so it is a marathon– not a sprint– with your bankroll.  Here are a few tips to help get you through the tournament… Betting individual matches The early rounds, like all single elimination tournaments, feature tons of matches and an opportunity to find a few softer prices for the well trained eye.  With a beginner’s mentality in mind, my recommendation is to focus on the following methods and pin point a few matches you feel strongly about rather than peppering the board with action. The following 4 steps are what I employ before considering a trip to the window and placing a bet. 1) Make sure you know how your player has performed on clay over the last two years It sounds simple enough since it’s the only Slam played on this surface. There are only a few tour events played on clay each year but many novice bettors won’t change their betting style based on this essential determinant. Flat out; surface matters because some players thrive on the dirt, while others never figure it out (Andy Roddick I’m looking right at you!!!). David Ferrer and Nicholas Almagro have the most clay court wins so far this year and always bear watching at the French. In fact, for years, both players have been known as “dirtballers” (players who rack up significant wins during the Clay court season). The clay typically favors...

Click here to listen The 3HL crew and I break down the NBA playoff pictures and the process for setting NFL win totals. The prop on O/U MPH for Clay’s first speeding ticket on the pilgrimage to the SEC meetings?...

When inspiration strikes after I read something thought provoking from fellow members of the sports gambling industry, I get the itch to share my opinion.  This week’s trigger came from a piece written by Micah Roberts on Vegasinsider.com (read the article here) following I’ll Have Another’s win at Pimlico. The article intimated how a triple crown winner in horse racing might be exactly what the doctor ordered to create renewed interest in a dying end of our business.  As someone who approaches race and sports with his own developing perspective, I’ll readily admit horse racing is on life support in terms of relevance among my generation.  Firing on the ponies doesn’t appeal to us the same way as the traditional sports where we know the players, teams, and coaches because 24/7 media coverage gives us full time access. Let’s avoid naivete, betting on the ponies isn’t nearly as appealing as wagering on the NFL to the 21-45 year old demographic. To have continued success in horse racing, it takes years of studying and due diligence to understand lineage, jockeys, and track biases.  No one can debate that combing through the daily racing form is a more cumbersome and daunting task than reviewing box scores and stat packages. In order to make horse racing viable as a gambling past time again, the sport needs to be more accessible for the masses and that doesn’t mean simply focusing on just the triple crown races and Breeders Cup. Speaking from the vantage point of someone who would love to see the industry rebound, I offer 3 suggestions that could be effective in stirring a slow revival for our grandfather’s game. 1) Make the Daily Racing Form easier to understand Every time I pick up the publication I’m intimidated. I’ve had industry...

Written by Andrew Choe (follow him on twitter @choe20) Many of us have fallen victim of going through forums and locating threads on “systems” that are guaranteed to turn a substantial profit without any work involved. The majority (if not all of them) of them never work and if they do their success is fleeting, creating short-term profit that eventually subsides. However, I have always found systems intriguing as a betting concept, not because I’m a lazy gambler and looking to make a quick buck, but rather because I enjoy the different perspectives, angles, and patterns that go into creating a system. This article has no intentions of trying to persuade you to give in to testing this system or bet it with your own bankroll instead it’s written to better illustrate and explain how a system can work as a guideline on top of handicapping and filtering to create long-term success. I stumbled on a system for MLB in a posting forum called “The RPI Chase”, created by user ‘bettor2win’. The premise is simple in that you bet a team to avoid a sweep in a series based on the outcome of the RPI (Relative Power Index). Because the goal is to get just one win, you keep chasing the losses on top of what you wagered originally to turn a unit profit. RPI (relative power index) is a mathematical formula derived from Bill James’ Pythagorean theorem of baseball. The formula was designed to relate a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to its win-loss record. The RPI Chase System: 1. If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase....

Written by Jay Kellegrew (follow him on twitter @hellonewman39) When some people step off the plane at McCarran airport, they see nothing but bright lights and hope. They head to the sportsbook and check out the slate of NBA and NHL playoff matchups while also pretending to have a firm grasp of who every starter is in each baseball game. However, they completely ignore the other half of the sportsbook where people speak a foreign language about trifectas, maidens, and mudders. My goal here isn’t to make you a handicapping wizard but rather help provide a basic guide to pari-mutuel betting, the kind employed through all Vegas casinos and most of your local off track betting facilities. First, let’s talk about the types of wagers that can be made. The wagers are split into two categories; straight wagers and exotic wagers. Straight wagers Win – picking which horse will win the race Place – picking a horse that will come in 1st or 2nd Show – picking a horse that will come in the top 3 Exotic wagers Exacta – predicting the first 2 horses in exact order Trifecta – predicting the first 3 horses in exact order Superfecta – predicting the first 4 horses in exact order Win and Place pools explained Unlike the other side of the sportsbook where lines are fixed as soon as the ticket is in your hand, pari-mutuel odds change right up until the start of the race because final prices aren’t determined until the final pool is calculated . You are competing against your fellow gamblers; the house merely takes a cut of all money that is bet. For example, let’s say a total of 1 million dollars (after the house cut) was bet on all the...

Contributed by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The finale of the Champions League takes place today when Bayern Munich plays Chelsea at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Both teams have battled adversity to reach this night with Bayern playing 14 games (as they had to pre-qualify) and Chelsea having 12 encounters along the way. Both teams were dogs in their respective semi finals as they faced the might of the Spanish giants, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Incredible performances saw each side triumph and earn their place in this prestigious showpiece event. Chelsea snatched an amazing 3-2 aggregate win over Barcelona with a resolute defensive display showing true English spirit. Their 2-2 away result in the Nou Camp in Barcelona was achieved despite playing much of the game with just 10 men. They were reduced in numbers due to the idiotic actions of talismanic captain John Terry who kicked a Barcelona forward away from the action and was given a straight red card. This only appeared to galvanise Chelsea’s resolve and drove them to a level of performance that not many felt such an old team would be capable of against a power like Barca. Given the straight red, John Terry’s services won’t be available for today’s championship. In addition to Terry, Chelsea will be without defender Ivanovic and midfielders Meireles and Ramires. Of the four absentees I see the loss of Ramires as critical. Chelsea will miss the young Brazilians energy and ability to close the opposition down and regain possession for the Blues. Along with the suspension issues, Chelsea has injury concerns to defenders Cahill and Luiz. Coach Di Matteo will keep his selections as close to the vest as possible to not give any advantage to Munich. This will mean...

Contributed by horse racing expert John Valter (follow him on twitter @kyderbyjay) I’ve finally stopped celebrating my brilliant Kentucky Derby handicapping and sat down to the business of tackling the 2012 Preakness, the middle jewel of racing’s Triple Crown. It’s a bit of a different race than the Derby and requires a different handicapping mindset. While recent Derbys have produced some winners who completely disappeared after wearing the garland of roses (Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver), the Preakness has produced a number of champions who either failed in the Derby (Afleet Alex, Curlin, Lookin At Lucky) or didn’t race in Kentucky at all (Bernardini, Rachel Alexandra). Even last year’s Preakness winner, Shackleford, looks to be the superior horse to the last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. In terms of envisioning how the race will be won, it’s actually unlikely to be run that much different than the Derby, just with a smaller field. There is a common perception that speed horses tend to fare much better over the Pimlico oval but it’s not necessarily accurate. Shackleford did win last year after battling with Flashpoint for the early lead, however more often than not the winner tends to come from off the pace. Here’s my look at the field (just 11 horses, smallest since 2008), dividing those horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby from those that didn’t: The New Shooters: Pretension is the only horse with a win over the track, a minor stakes race on Derby Day. However, he was a well-beaten 9th in his race prior in the Illinois Derby against a much better field and looks hopelessly overmatched here…Zetterholm, trained by Richard Dutrow, has won three straight, albeit all against New York state-bred horses and does not appear to...

Contributed by Steve Koerber (follow him on twitter @ajsplays) Sometime in the near future a few of these 15 pitchers will figure out how to pitch on the road and will no longer make this list.  Let’s call it the “Wandy Rodriguez complex” since the now reliable Astros starter used to be an auto-play at home while a mandatory fade on the highway.  Zack Greinke is the closest arm to removing himself from this list after coming off his most impressive road start as a Brewer on Tuesday. Combine that with his strong finish on the road in 2011 and he might finally be showing the command expected of an ace away from Miller Park. James McDonald hasn’t been bad on the road to start the year but is still 2 runs worse when he leaves the confines of PNC. Justin Masterson looked like he turned the corner last year but has since reverted back into his old self through  the early portions of 2012. A great start by Jaime Garcia Wednesday night brought his 2012 road numbers down but I’d like to see him do it with some consistency in places other than San Francisco since AT&T park remains a haven for fly ball arms. In my opinion, some of these pitchers are a lot better to factor into totals than sides. For example, Clayton Richard has been very good at Petco Park yet his offense is still terrible so betting on him can be difficult. The Padres have lost 13 of his last 16 home Starts while scoring 2 runs or less in 12 of those games so I prefer to look under the total every time he goes to the bump in southern California. Below are a list of arms with...

Contributed by Emile (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) Thanks to continued attrition and plainly apparent gulfs in class among the combatants, the trends that will govern the NBA’s conference semis have begun to reveal themselves. Following up on Part I of my look at NBA playoffs prop culture, a quick rundown of what to look for going forward as the final eight lock horns: Matchups to Watch: Conference Semifinals, Part II Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers Got It Made: No one’s rockin’ the throwback look this spring quite like Kevin Garnett. In eight 2012 postseason contests, KG has been exceptional. Not “good for his age,” downright elite. In six games against the Hawks and one against Philly, he’s posted a 23.7 PER (in the 2004 postseason, during which he collected his MVP trophy, his PER was 25) and an awesome .241 Win Shares/ 48 minutes. During the regular season (admittedly a larger and more meaningful sample), only LeBron James (a silly .298) and Chris Paul (a batshit-but-sane-by-comparison .278) bettered this mark, with no one else topping .230. There is a case to be made that Garnett’s recent dominance – 16+ points five times, including 28 and 29 in his last two games; 11+ rebounds six times; 27+ points + rebounds six times (thanks to that Game 2 buzzer beater!), including four games of 32+ – may be setting the stage for a fade opportunity, but with an all-timer in legitimate don’t mess with greatness mode, Philly’s difficulty in defending bigs ,  and KG’s P+R lines still in the 26/26.5 range, I’d hold off on betting on a correction coming anytime soon. Look To Fade: Jrue Holiday proved the most productive (if not always efficient) point guard in the east outside of Massachusetts in Round 1....

Contributed by Emile A (follow his prop advice on twitter @hardwoodhype) The NBA playoff field has been halved, and thus far the only certainty is that at the final buzzer in June we will have a new champion. We’ve lost a prohibitive favorite, though relentless nips from the injury bug foreshadowed the death knell. Neither the class of the NBA’s Western Conference nor the stars form South Beach endured great difficulty in punching their respective tickets for Round 2, while the aforementioned gale of heartache ripped through the Windy City. Both L.A. squads parlayed commanding 3-1 series leads into grind-it-out Game 7 victories and the Pacers disposed of (for now) SVG’s shorthanded-but-game Magic, while a Joe Johnson-led squad fared about as well as one would expect against the Celtics in May. The first of two installments on the opening round that was, the second round that is and an update on NBA prop culture: San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers Got It Made: Don’t overthink this. Tony Parker is now, by some margin, not only a catalyst but also the primary offensive threat on the presumed favorite out West. Look to ride: While Parker’s points + assists line has steadily climbed this season and now hovers around 28/28.5 after starting the new year in the vicinity of 22/23, it’s hardly inflated. Parker earned his MVP candidacy during the regular season and did little to tarnish it against the Utah Jazz in Round 1, with games of 27 and 28, along with an 18- 9 in Game 3. He’s fared no worse against the Clippers of late, notching 28+ P+A in three of five meetings the past two regular seasons (including a 30- 10 on February 18), with one of the shortfalls a 14-point, 9-assist...

Every pointspread is not created equally. A bookmaker’s confidence level varies by sport since he has to be willing to take the biggest bets in markets believed to be most efficient for long term profitability. However, efficiency doesn’t imply the numbers are air tight but rather indicates there is enough money being wagered on a game to limit overall liability. No one believes (nor will any bookmaker tell you) that the same amount of time is spent setting nightly NBA props as goes into establishing weekly NFL lines because the market cap isn’t close to the same size. Sharp bettors know they won’t be able to bet enough on props to make it their primary source of revenue so they don’t invest their time in a market that can’t sustain them. Given the 100x increase in volume a sportsbook sees on Browns vs Seahawks compared to O/U Kevin Durant made FG’s, we’d be crazy not to allocate our focus primarily to the NFL game in this example. Like any successful business, the majority of time is dedicated towards the most profitable pursuits, allowing us to create tighter markets where comfort levels increase with larger bet size. To understand the relative strength of a betting line from a bookmaker’s perspective, bettors need to look no further than the limits being offered to them on a particular event. Among the 4 major sports, pro football provides gamblers the greatest opportunity for large wagers because the market size for a single game is far superior to any other sport. As a result of more money being wagered on a sporting event (think Superbowl), it means each big bet that enters the pool creates a smaller ripple than a 10k bet would on a WNBA side when handle...