Prop Positioning – In series adjustments May05

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Prop Positioning – In series adjustments

Contributed by NBA Prop Wizard Emile A (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype)

At playoff time, increased emphasis is placed on the ability to recognize strategic shortcomings and adjust decisively, without the luxury of protracted deliberation (aka s**t or get off the pot for those scoring at home). Tweaks are made from one game to the next, either in the interest of exploiting a newfound mismatch, offsetting an opponent’s advantage, or simply shaking up the status quo. A coach, unable to allow a trend to fully develop must use whatever information he deems most valuable – be it from the team’s most recent outing, the regular season, or a particular head-to-head matchup through the years and shift on the fly.

This predicament in which NBA coaches find themselves this time of year mirrors the cat and mouse game between bettors and bookmakers. In the time one might require to identify, research, and confirm an emerging trend during the regular season, said trend has often come and gone. This phenomenon extends, in terms of velocity and magnitude, to the shifts made by bookmakers on wagering lines, particularly (thanks to the market’s relative illiquidity) player props. As we have seen from the outset, in the sportsbooks’ quest to simultaneously maintain an accurate market in a “new season” without straying too far from equilibrium, prop lines in the postseason are prone to considerable volatility.

No in-depth discussion on the subject of sports wagering can go very far without touching on the subject of line volatility, or “getting the best of the number.” Whether on this site, others similar to it, podcasts (a frequent topic on Chad Millman’s Behind The Bets pod) or in conversation, much is made of understanding the significance of seemingly minor moves in not only a betting line but in the price attached to that number as well. Five days and a minimum of two games per team  into NBA playoff action, this volatility is evident in line shifts from one game to the next.

In terms of small-scale moves, we have Danny Granger’s scoring line which ticked lower from a pre-Game 2 level right around 20 to a pre-Game 3 19.5, with a fleeting 19 even popping up at times. This line will likely revert to post-Game 2 levels in light of Granger’s 26 on Wednesday night, though given his chronic inconsistency and struggles with efficiency, it’s unlikely that a great wagering opportunity will emerge.

More significant is the movement surrounding David West whose scoring line was as low as 14 (even) prior to Game 1, but jumped to 15.5 for Games 2 and 3 after his outings of 19 and 18 points. There is a chance that Wednesday’s 4-point dud results in a value-creating market correction. David West is a damn good player and a veteran leader so if you have an opportunity to cash in on West scoring 15 points under these circumstances (no Dwight or Hedo checking him all series), I’d suggest you look into it for a great bounceback opportunity.

Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the Clippers’ absurd Game 1 comeback, Chris Paul’s “Points + Assists” lines ticked down from 29.5/30 – I also saw scoring and assists broken out separately, at ~20.5 and 9/9.5, respectively – to 28.5, since everyone’s favorite “Point God” managed just 14 and 11 assists (7 in the last 7 minutes – thanks Nick Young!) in the Game 1 thriller. With some oscillation between 27.5 and 29.5, this was the prevailing number for Paul for much of the regular season. Look for his 29 & 5 in Game 2, along with a return to Staples Center to result in an uptick, but probably not so much of one that all value is drained. With players of Paul’s pedigree, home playoff openers tend to be excellent situational plays.

While we’re here, there are a couple of bigs in Clips-Grizz worth mentioning. Blake Griffin entered Game 1 sporting a P+R line of 32 (with some juice on the under), and saw that figure fall to 30.5 after his 17 & 7 in Game 1. Like Paul, Blake had a stronger statistical outing in Game 2 (22 and 9 rebounds) which, combined with a return home should trigger a move back to the more optimistic expectation of Game 1, if not higher.

On the other side, we’ve got Grizzlies center Marc Gasol. As much as any player, Gasol, a ~15-9 guy in the regular season, was fully priced to start the playoffs, with a Game 1 P+R line of 25/25.5. After 14 points and 4 rebounds in 36 minutes, this number dipped to a more reasonable, but still full-retail 24 for Game 2. Anyone looking here for value on Wednesday night was hugely disappointed, as Gasol, in 38 minutes, managed just 8 points and 7 rebounds. This sets the stage for a “reverse Griffin” in Game 3, in which lines for a struggling Gasol on the road will likely tick lower again, presumably to the 22.5/23 range. This will create value for this afternoon’s Game 3. Even if this was who Marc Gasol is – just an 11 and 6 guy –he’s  too good for three straight duds especially with the Grizz seeking to regain home court.

Moving across the hallway in downtown L.A., a couple of thoughts on a few lead guards. Heading into his playoff debut, Ramon Sessions was met with P+A lines of 16/16.5. In Game 1, he not only looked butterfly-free, he slid beautifully into the role of facilitator and second-tier scorer, hitting six of his 11 shots (including a pair of triples) for 14 points and handing out 5 assists. In Game 2, despite a lackluster start and inefficient shooting (6-of-16), Sessions – clearly an integral part of the Laker attack now – managed to post an admirable 14 points and 4 assists. Unfortunately, however, Game 1 optimism led to a bad Game 2 beat. In response to his strong Game 1 showing, lines had been ratcheted up, to 18/18.5. As the series shifted to Denver, the trend went with it, and another 15 and 6 from Sessions in the Lakers’ Game 3 defeat only served to cement the number at these levels.

Meanwhile, Ty Lawson – the Nuggets’ leader in minutes (34.8), points (16.4) and assists (6.6) per game – entered the series as the team’s presumptive star (at least as far as the books were concerned), with a P+A line of 25.5, well above his season average. After a wholly ineffectual opener (3-of-11, 7 points, 2 assists) Lawson was the biggest downside adjustment (that I saw), with a Game 2 line of just 22. He easily eclipsed that mark with 25 and 7 assists. As the series, moved to Denver, I’d have looked to go against Lawson, who was statistically inferior at home (14.7 and 6.9; 17.9 and 6.3 on the road) during the regular season, and managed more than 21 P+A just once in four meetings with the Lakers. In Game ,3 I’d have been dead WRONG, as Lawson cranked out another 25 and 7 in downing the Lakers, though coming back for Game 4 (and with the lines presumably moving upward) I’d look for the longer term trend to hold, though perhaps as an observer rather than a bettor.

Thursday night’s slate featured a pair of high-profile contests, both featuring teams trailing 0-2 and heading home in hopes that familiarity breeds victory. In the opener, the Knicks returned to Manhattan looking to avoid not only a 3-0 deficit, but an NBA-record 13th consecutive playoff defeat. Most of the lines for what proved to be a rather grueling watch (save for LeBron’s superb fourth quarter) were where one would expect, with the notable exception of Carmelo Anthony’s. Back home and now at the “4” after a fire extinguisher did STAT dirty, Carmelo’s P+R was bumped up aggressively to a Dwight Howard/Kevin Love-esque 36 (from 31.5/32.5), with money actually seeming to favor to the over. This one was always going to be live in what looked to be the most ‘Melo game ever, scoring 30+ (that’s what it was going to take) on LeBron James with one fewer offensive threat on the floor beside him was always sketchy at best.

In the nightcap, the Oklahoma City Thunder took their 2-0 series lead to Dallas, where the Mavericks would presumably be ready to fight tooth and nail (as they had in Games 1 & 2) to prolong their title defense. In the midst of all of this, Dirk Nowitzki’s scoring lines had crept from 24/24.5 to a solid 25 in the first two games. With games of 25 and 31 in the books and the series on his turf, expectations ratcheted up, to 26/26.5 points. Individually, Dirk appeared to be peaking, but fell flat with 6-of-15 performance and 17-points in a blowout loss. As the Mavs look to delay the now-inevitable, shots will not be in short supply for Dirk. Look for him to go down swinging though I’d continue to be skeptical about any prop in which 26 from Dirk will cost me money.

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