by Steve Caruso (follow him on twitter @RusoCaruso) When it comes to betting baseball, I think a lot of guys (including seasoned veterans) who bet other sports find it overwhelming at times. Baseball is such a numbers driven sport it’s easy to get bogged down and hung up on misleading stats that don’t correlate to handicapping success. You also need to factor in the translation from point spread to run line to moneyline and you have a headache waiting to happen for a lot of people. Personally, I think baseball can provide gifts throughout the year when bookmakers shift focus away from the diamond to other more heavily bet sports. Now, the way MLB lines are set up is with a heavy emphasis on who’s starting (pitching) for each team. We know everyone has their own method on what metrics are key in handicapping, but usually what you’ll find is everyone does things a little bit differently. In my opinion if you’re looking for something concrete, something often objective in a subjective sport to factor into your handicapping research then look no further than Umpire Strike %’s. Before you dispute my thesis think of a time when your favorite team (or any other team) you had money on lost a game because of an umpire, and no Buccos fans I’m not talking about the infamous Jerry Meals incident at Turner Field. Now that I’ve made your blood start to boil thinking about umpires lets think why we get so heated: Say it with me now, “they’re masked men with power to influence every game.” Officials are very instrumental to any sporting event and I’m not trying to bash them for making mistakes but the reality is we need every edge we can find as handicappers. I...

Click here to Listen 3HL Crew and I discuss the economic impact to Vegas of the newly minted 4 team playoff along with how Euro Cup is received in sportsbooks across the city

by Adam Chemerinsky (follow him on twitter for great tennis advice @gamblingkings) The old saying says the grass is always greener on the other side could not be truer than when you talk about betting tennis. Fortunately for those that struggled at the French Open, its time to kick the dirt off and get ready for the ultimate fortnight in tennis. Wimbledon features a unique betting opportunity because there are only a handful of tournaments each year played on grass and the surface caters to a very select kind of player. You have certain members of the tour who will play Wimbledon as their lone grass court tournament of the entire year and as a result, there is money to be made with extreme value in the early rounds before the books catch up to players current form. Just like the betting strategy we employed for the French Open, I suggest playing the early rounds for a very small bet size and waiting until the third and fourth rounds to gradually increase bet size. Wimbledon features plenty of opportunities and I suggest a high volume of plays at smaller units early before the caliber of tennis increases. I encourage everyone to stay away from betting on players outside the top 20 entirely for the first week unless you can find them at + money. There are the rare players who prefer grass to hard and clay courts that typically enter hot like Tommy Haas and Andy Roddick (who both enter Wimbledon coming off grass court titles).  Past performances on grass can create a gross over valuation of certain players regardless of their current form. Those that fall into this mix right now include Feliciano Lopez, Xavier Malisse and Ivo Karlovic. There are also unique...

Power ratings are just one of many tools that bookmakers use to determine point spreads. Let me repeat that; they’re just GUIDES bookmakers use to determine point spreads and should never be confused with the actual point spreads themselves. Everyone in the business has his (or her) own opinion and more often than not we don’t value every team across all sports the exact same way.  To quote Shakespeare if he were a bookmaker, therein lies the rub…when it comes to establishing openers. Books don’t operate in a vacuum in the age of the internet and too much deviation from the market price as a linemaker creates arbitrage for sharper bettors.  Suffice to say it explains why no matter how different a line may be when it first hits the market, it will eventually gravitate towards the same price point whether the shop is located in London, Las Vegas, or Reno.  However, the true skill displayed by the sharpest bookmakers is understanding how to utilize the variance between what the market says a line should be and true power number to steer the action to a position of strength. For example, if power numbers indicate a line should be 3 points different than the market, you can’t ignore everyone else and hang a 6 when the world’s at a 3. Instead, the objective is to shade the price just enough (say 3, -125 in football) realizing that any sharp bettor who shares the same power numbers or thought process on a game as you will be discouraged from betting the “correct side” at your shop.  The reality is if you hang a vastly different number, you stop being a bookmaker and become a gambler. By remaining stubborn and putting your stake in the ground and ignoring...

Written by @sportscheetah One of the most intriguing arguments in sports right now, (whether it be on ESPN between paid analysts or between the every-day fan on Twitter), is discussing Lebron James and his inability to show-up and compete late in big games. Many people often ask: Why do great athletes sometimes fail to show up in important situations? More specifically, I’d like to ask why did Lebron James, so dominant in fourth quarters leading up to the NBA Finals last season, start making rookie mistakes when it mattered most? Confronting this question from a sport psychologist’s point of view helps people understand that Lebron’s issues are real but that they can in fact be overcome. With the NBA Finals already under way and Miami facing a series deficit, I’m more curious to see how LBJ responds to his third crack at a title than I’ve ever been for another athlete. Jumping back in time to the 1989 Stanley Cup Finals, we can learn a few things from one psychologist named Hap Davis. The story says that one of the Calgary Flames players came back to the dressing room right before the opening face-off in Game 1, turned to the team’s sport psychologist and made an honest confession: “I’m scared.” Hap Davis has spent more than a generation examining why athletes succumb to pressure. He thinks he’s found an answer that explains both LeBron James’ poor play in the NBA Finals last year and why Dirk Nowitzki’s emotional response to winning paint a completely different picture. To bore you guys a bit, here is your psychology lesson for the day: In moments of fear, the human body produces cortisol, which helps its fight-or-flight mechanism. When you hear the story about the boy who was able...

Click here to listen Us Open, NBA Finals, College baseball, and inevitable SEC football chatter as we break down the odds

Written by @Fullmarx12 The golf world focuses its attention on San Francisco this week where the U.S. Open will be contested at the Olympic Club. This course has both variety and character – few if any courses will feature both a sub-300 yard par-4 (the 7th hole comes in at 288 yards) and a plus-600 yard par-5 (the 16th will be stretched this week to 670 yards, the longest hole in major championship history). With no water hazards and only a single fairway bunker, Olympic’s difficulty lies in its small targets, uneven fairways, and heavily-guarded greens. The USGA, somewhat embarrassed by Rory McIlroy’s rout of Congressional last year, will look to return the event to what we all have come to know and love: a limited number of birdies, an emphasis on par and an abundance of frustration. Make the first shot count Marked by narrow fairways and tiny greens, Olympic will reward the more accurate players in the field both off the tee and into the green. The last time the U.S. Open was held here in 1998, Lee Janzen was T-3 for the week in fairways hit and led the field in greens in regulation en route to victory. With its trademark reverse camber fairways, accuracy off the tee is especially important. On six different occasions, the design of the hole goes one way (i.e. right-to-left) while the slope of the fairway runs in the opposite direction (i.e. left-to-right). This phenomenon – which can appear to defy physics from the tee box – means that even a slight error will result in a missed fairway. As a result, I will look to back players who are not only accurate off the tee but can also shape the ball both ways since tee...

Written by Emile A (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) You wanna know why we put up with the months of public jousting over BRI, “flex cap” and a repeater tax? This is why. Some playoff matchups are so comprehensively soaked in narrative that their ticket to NBA lore is virtually ensured, irrespective of quality of play. Others earn a place in the pantheon through monumental performances and moments; sometimes the stars simply align on both fronts. On the a heels of a wildly entertaining conference finals, one that treated NBA fans to all but one of 14 possible games, the sporting gods have bestowed upon us a Finals matchup filled to the brim with star power, awe-inspiring talent, and Sweeps-worthy storylines: Fresh-faced newcomers vs. the sport’s most reviled crew Dynasty-in a-Box vs. Draft-and-Develop. Young vs. well, Slightly Less Young. Derek Fisher’s pursuit of Michael Jordan. Flash and The Beard in a flop-off for the ages. One of the NBA’s best scoring outfits led by the league’s most devastating attacker, fresh off a stellar performance against a star-studded opponent whose veteran savvy looked as though it might be a deciding factor. By his one side an obscenely gifted, if occasionally maddening, perimeter running mate for whom a defined role is not easily defined and by the other, a versatile star – without whom the season might have ended prematurely – whose incredible talent, while recognized, often does not receive top billing. And the Oklahoma City Thunder will be there too. As always, matchups will be key, as will in-/inter-game adjustments by Erik Spoelstra and Scott Brooks in response to mismatches that emerge. From a prop perspective, this matchup features as star-studded and public a cast as the league can offer outside of All-Star Weekend. Thus,...

Click here to listen Greg, Eli, and I discuss the aftermath of #PacBradley and what it means to the future of boxing. Apparently there’s also a big NBA series coming up that people want to...

Click here to listen Brandon, Eric, and I talk about the best way for approaching the NBA finals from a betting perspective. Never a trip to the Bay without talking 49ers & Raiders for a bit and their prospects for the 2012...

Click Here The Fantasy Freaks and I talk about the Pacman fall out from last night with a proposed solution for boxing transparency. Quick discussion of the opening line for the NBA Finals along with the 2 tv shows I’d resurrect from the dead if it was up to me...

Written by @kyderbyjay This was supposed to be an entirely different article. This was supposed to be about the coronation of a champion, the end of a jinx. However, fate intervened in the form of tendonitis in the leg of the great I’ll Have Another, and that article has been scrapped. Yes, they will still run the Belmont Stakes in New York on Saturday, at the always-challenging distance of a mile and a half. This is as far as any of these horses have ever run, and it’s likely the farthest they will ever run. The Belmont is a race that can pretty much be won with any style. A speed horse can walk to a victory if the fractions are generous, and a closer can come charging down that long stretch with the right pace to run at — there isn’t a magical winning formula. So, as always, picking the winner is as much about figuring out how the race will be run, as it is about figuring out the right horse. If there’s any bright spot in I’ll Have Another’s defection, it’s that the race suddenly looks much more interesting and betable. Here’s my look at what’s left of the 2012 Belmont field: Still Have No Shot Five Sixteen is bred to run long, but he may the slowest horse I’ve seen entered in a Triple Crown race in quite some time…Guyana Star Dweeji will be a huge price, and deservedly so. Just has no business being entered in a graded stakes, much less an elite race like the Belmont…Ravalo’s Boy looks incapable of competing with the top choices, even on his best day…Unstoppable U figures to be a pace factor early but the only way he has a shot is iff...