Inside the Numbers
We talk all the time about numbers and value as it pertains to sports betting. For a few fleeting minutes Sunday morning, I decided to step outside the realm of the industry and explore the correlation between major league baseball payrolls and wins from 2002 to 2011. Some of the results you’ll find a bit shocking yet there are obvious examples (like the Yankees) where spending money has led to a direct correlation in franchise success. Conversely there are teams like the Mariners who have won 217 less games over that span so they’re avg cost per win places them in the top 5 and clearly doesn’t yield great return on investment. The 2 most impressive teams on this list? The Miami Marlins (2003) and St Louis Cardinals (2011) who won World Series championships within the 10 year window without eclipsing the $1M threshold in payroll cost per win.
Between 2002 and 2011, there were 80 possible postseason births. Of those 80, 48 of them (60%) were gobbled up by teams who paid greater than $1M in player’s salary per win. It’s not shocking that the best “value” play during this time is the Minnesota Twins who have made the postseason 6 out of a possible 10 times despite only paying $778k for each of their 865 regular season wins.
What’s the takeaway from this as a sports gambler you ask? The truth is value comes in all shapes and sizes so figuring out what your goals and objectives are upon entering a season makes setting realistic expectations easier. Treat your bankroll like a major league franchise with the understanding there are very few Yankee type bettors who can cover up mistakes by throwing money at a problem. Most bettors operate like small market teams meaning they need to make shrewd investments to stay in the game all season long. Do your homework, spend time scouting/researching, and make the right investments and you too can be successful. Remember, a small market franchise isn’t built over night so by being patient and staying the course opportunities will abound for those that are willing to stay the course.
| Team | Payroll Cost per Win | Total Wins | Total Payroll (2002-2011) |
| New York Yankees | $1,923,112.28 | 975 | $1,875,034,471 |
| New York Mets | $1,467,334.66 | 795 | $1,166,531,053 |
| Boston Red Sox | $1,396,553.72 | 932 | $1,301,588,065 |
| Chicago Cubs | $1,315,072.62 | 800 | $1,052,058,092 |
| Seattle Mariners | $1,214,429.97 | 758 | $920,537,917 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | $1,176,192.99 | 852 | $1,002,116,428 |
| Detroit Tigers | $1,156,932.55 | 760 | $879,268,735 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | $1,137,367.92 | 898 | $1,021,356,396 |
| Los Angeles Angels | $1,118,702.22 | 910 | $1,018,019,021 |
| Chicago White Sox | $1,076,185.18 | 846 | $910,452,665 |
| San Francisco Giants | $1,052,135.65 | 846 | $890,106,759 |
| Baltimore Orioles | $1,044,918.81 | 696 | $727,263,493 |
| Atlanta Braves | $1,039,729.75 | 889 | $924,319,752 |
| Houston Astros | $1,028,724.97 | 799 | $821,951,248 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | $998,987.88 | 901 | $900,088,082 |
| Texas Rangers | $904,774.42 | 818 | $740,105,475 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | $867,110.63 | 787 | $682,416,064 |
| Colorado Rockies | $843,531.75 | 770 | $649,519,448 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | $842,650.54 | 808 | $680,861,633 |
| Cincinnati Reds | $828,718.52 | 770 | $638,113,260 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | $795,159.91 | 773 | $614,658,611 |
| Kansas City Royals | $782,891.53 | 668 | $522,971,543 |
| Minnesota Twins | $777,878.27 | 865 | $672,864,704 |
| Cleveland Indians | $754,095.05 | 785 | $591,964,614 |
| Washington Nationals | $719,219.90 | 725 | $521,434,428 |
| San Diego Padres | $690,436.86 | 774 | $534,398,131 |
| Oakland Athletics | $675,111.47 | 852 | $575,194,975 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | $633,468.81 | 679 | $430,125,323 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | $523,863.83 | 750 | $392,897,874 |
| Miami Marlins | $509,166.48 | 808 | $411,406,512 |
All Salary data courtesy of USA Today database
