Manchester Derby
by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
This Sunday sees the two current giants of the EPL meeting head to head at The Etihad Stadium in Manchester. Host Manchester City trails their fierce rival Manchester United by three points but this gives them the opportunity to draw level at the top of the table with the Red Devils.
Conversely this match offers United to chance to put the clear daylight of a full six points between them and the Blues. Six points would be a large gap for City to claw back, even at this stage of the season. Both teams suffered defeats in midweek action in the Champions League. Although United’s defeat at home to Cluj was arguably more surprising, the loss for City away against Borrussia Dortmund signalled the end to their embarrassing European campaign for the season. City’s tally of three points is the lowest by an English side in the group stage of the competition. Could such European humiliation lead to a big response from Roberto Mancini’s City players?
Maybe but I am not sure I can trust their apparent fractious dressing room to respond so positively. This season their play has been indifferent but credit to them as they continue to pick the points up. You know you will get a committed and honest performance from United under Sir Alex Ferguson. The current market prices have City as quite strong favourites but rather than oppose them outright I sense another market may offer better betting opportunities.
At first glance there has been an equal distribution of the over/under 2.5 goal line in recent meetings as 5 have hit the over with 7 going under that line. However, when you drill down a bit deeper into the statistics there are clear trends pointing to this being a tight low scoring affair. The last 6 meetings at the Etihad Stadium have all cashed an under 2.5 ticket and no game has even seen two goals! With only 2 of the last 11 total meetings being won by more than a single goal that suggest two closely matched teams will take the field this Sunday. Mancini reverts to the familiar Italian traits of defence first in such big games and Ferguson is sure to adopt a cautious mindset for this encounter. Most markets are hanging 2.5 but the calculated gambler should be able to find a 3 with juice or an asian handicap offering 2.5,3 for a game that should be devoid of fireworks.
