Arsenal vs Reading
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
There comes a time in every great sporting dynasty when the tide begins to turn and the continuation of the norm comes under scrutiny. That is the exact situation we see at Arsenal now with boss Arsene Wenger under the microscope once more as yet another trophy-less season beckons. Last week Arsenal faced arguably their greatest humiliation in the successful Wenger led era. A virtual full strength side crashed out of the Carling Cup quarter final away to League Two Bradford City. In previous seasons this would have been accepted because Arsenal historically fielded a weakened team in this competition. Such a strong side sent out by Arsenal suggested they saw this as their biggest chance to gain silverware. That defeat was a crushing blow and turned this game into a massive test of character for his side.
The Arsenal fan base can be clearly defined now between the AKB’s and the AKFA. AKB stands for ‘Arsene Knows Best’ and AKFA stands for ‘Arsene Knows F A‘. I can let your well educated minds work out what the FA stands for! This divide now is mainly due to the stubborness of Wenger and has split the fans right down the middle. Around half of which believe that Wenger has the determination, experience and strength of character to arrest the recent slide. The other camp, seemingly growing in number each week, feel it is time to move on and away from Wenger. Ironically, as split as the Arsenal fan base is the statistics for this game are also split right down the middle. All of these background factors makes this such an interesting Monday Night Football in the full glare of the nation live on Sky Sports.
This season newly promoted Reading are 1-4-2 at home whilst Arsenal have a 2-4-2 record on the road. Those 15 games have thrown up no less than 8 draws which is an amazing 53.3% strike rate, usually at odds of at least +350. I have been shopping around for prices for this game and have found several books that offer over +400 for the draw in this game. Interested? Well wait till you hear this next fact. Over the last three full seasons and the beginning of this season Arsenal have made ten trips to newly promoted sides into the EPL from the second tier Championship league. Those ten away days have yielded five wins, four draws and just a single defeat for the Gunners. Once again the stats from that sample size point to the draw being the best value bet in this fixture.
Most importantly though for this game we have the mindset of both sides as they approach this fixture. Despite the need for victory Arsenal need to avoid defeat here even more and their away games this season point to it being a low scoring game. The goal line is set at 3 for this fixture and for Arsenal this season on the road such a line would see 7 games going under, 1 push and just a solitary losing ticket if you flat bet unders. Reading has seen a lot of goals, 26 to be precise, in their seven home games but I believe they will sit back and try and absorb the Arsenal pressure. The teams met recently in the Capital One Cup and a ridiculous game ended up with a 4-4 draw in normal time with Arsenal winning 7-5 after overtime. That game has to be mentioned, despite Arsenal fielding a much changed team, as it is factored into this goal line being set at 3. However, from a statistical analysis point it is an ‘outlier’ we can ignore! I believe that if you asked both coach before the game would you accept a draw I think they would both say yes, even if Wenger couldn’t share that part publicly.
If you are an ‘AKB’ bettor then you will probably be attracted to the unders on the goal line. All you ‘AKFA’ then the price of the draw should lure you in towards the counter at attractive odds.
