Tiger Tour: 2013 Masters Preview
2013 Masters Preview: Tiger Takes on the World
Spring is in the air. The azaleas are in bloom. Jim Nantz is once again reminding you that his job is way, way better than yours. It’s time for golf’s first major of the year: The Masters.
Key Factors
There are 93 players in this week’s field, with about 40-45 guys possessing a realistic chance at winning. In choosing among the contenders, here are three factors that I think will play an especially pivotal role:
Greens in Regulation: Recent history indicates that if you want to win at Augusta, you have to hit greens in regulation early and often. Of the last 14 winners, 10 of them have finished T-4 of better for the week in GIR percentage. With rain potentially in the forecast for Thursday and Friday that is more likely to soften the course than suspend play, conditions should be ripe for scoring and players will need as many birdie opportunities as possible. Those that spend the least amount of their week trying to scramble for pars will have the best shot.
Par 5 Performance: Fans and players alike know that the place where Augusta is most vulnerable is on the par 5s and those hoping to win must take advantage. Six of the last seven winners have played the par 5s in 8 under or better for the week, essentially meaning players looking to contend will need to birdie every other par-5 throughout the week.
Three-Putt Avoidance: Around Augusta, the ability to two-putt from 60 feet across a giant tier is just as important as being able to fire an approach shot close the pin. Players will face at least a handful of long and treacherous putts at some point this week on some of the larger greens like the 14th or 16th, and those best equipped to keep pars from turning into bogeys will have a leg up on the field.
What About Tiger?
Woods is listed as a prohibitive favorite, and rightfully so. While I expect him to win, if you didn’t grab a piece of him when the price was right in December or January, you may want to wait until Thursday night. Consider this: in 18 previous Masters appearances, Woods has broken 70 in the first round just once (a 68 in 2010, when he went on to tie for fourth). In his four prior wins, he has opened with a 70 three times, rounds that put him in fourth place (1997), seventh (2002) and 15th (2001) after Thursday’s round. In his fourth title in 2005, he was 33rd after a Thursday 74 and still battled back to win. Point being, at Augusta Tiger tends to subscribe to the theory that you can’t win an event on Thursday, but you can lose it. A relatively conservative opening round could create a situation where you can buy a Woods future prior to Friday’s second round at an improved price compared to what’s currently being offered.
Contenders (current prices courtesy of LVH provided below)
While there is no shortage of reasons why Woods will likely win his fifth green jacket Sunday, there is also no shortage of players who have the talent and pedigree to beat him. Among the contenders I have circled are the following:
Phil Mickelson: With three Masters wins to his name, Mickelson has finished inside the top-five nine times in the last 12 years, an incredibly consistent record. His game is ideally suited for Augusta, with an emphasis placed on shaping shots and touch on and around the greens. He’s already won this year in Phoenix and also finished third behind Woods and Steve Stricker at Doral. I think he will have some extra motivation this week in trying to deny Woods a fifth green jacket, and in the process perhaps winning a fourth of his own.
Keegan Bradley: One of the hottest players around, the 2011 PGA champion has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last four events. After leading the Tour in the all-around ranking last year, Bradley is again high on the stat sheet this year: seventh in scoring average, eighth in total driving, 11th in scrambling. Though Masters rookies usually struggle, he tied for 27th in his first appearance last year and there is reason to think he’ll improve on that this week.
Justin Rose: Rose is another player that comes in hot, with three straight top 10s including a runner-up finish to Woods at Bay Hill in his last start. He’s been inside the top 20 in each of his last three Masters starts, including a tie for eighth last year. There are several top Europeans seeking their first major win this week – Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter among them – but I think Rose has the best shot among the group.
Sleepers
The top players have short odds for a reason, but there is nothing more satisfying than pulling a needle from the haystack and boasting a winning ticket with long odds on Sunday. Here are three players from the pack that may be worth consideration:
Bill Haas: The 2011 FedEx Cup champ has five top-10 finishes on Tour in 2013, tied for the most so far this season. He has been remarkably consistent over the first three months, and in a tournament that calls for high GIR percentage, he leads the Tour in the category entering the week. Curiously he has played rather poorly when equipped with the lead late in the tournament twice this year, but if he’s able to shake that tendency he certainly has the game to contend.
Rickie Fowler: Last year he watched one of his best friends, Bubba Watson, win the green jacket, and this week has been side by side with the defending champ. Though his past results in the Masters aren’t remarkable, Fowler has been playing well this year, with three top-10 finishes already this season – including a tie for third in his last start at Bay Hill when he matched Tiger shot-for-shot until the 16th hole Sunday. His game is rounding into form, and I genuinely think the intangibles stemming from his relationship with Watson will benefit him this week.
Hunter Mahan: After winning twice last year before the Masters, Mahan fell off the face of the earth during the latter half of the season and is under the radar this week as a result. He appears to have regained his form, though, with seven top-25 finishes in nine starts this year including a runner-up in defense of his WGC-Match Play title. With three top-12 finishes in the last four years at Augusta he clearly has a good track record in this event. However, I do have some hesitations about how his short game will perform amid the pressures of Sunday should he play his way back into contention.
Fade Material
While every player expects to play well, there are bound to be some clunkers this week. Here are a few players I’ll look to oppose in H2H matchups:
Thorbjorn Olesen: Perhaps not well known to American fans, the young Dane has some serious game and has been circled as a possible sleeper, having won last year on the European Tour. Two weeks ago, though, Olesen suffered whiplash from a car accident the day before teeing off at the Shell Houston Open. He struggled through an 82 in the first round before withdrawing, and hasn’t played since. At the time he wasn’t sure if he would be able to play this week, and his coach reportedly admitted that Olesen expects some rust from essentially not practicing at all for 10 days. Not ideal Masters prep.
Martin Kaymer: Augusta more so than many courses requires players to shape their shots, especially the right-to-left draw: a necessity at holes like 8, 10 and 13. The draw does not fit Kaymer’s eye, who has tried to add the shot to his arsenal in recent years with limited success. One report indicated that this year in order to stay fresh, Kaymer would not be playing any actual golf Tuesday or Wednesday this week – just hitting balls and putting because “it’s such a circus there.” Again, not exactly how I’d prepare for an event on such a nuanced course, and if anything it shows me that this event is in his head in a bad way.
Brandt Snedeker: He was among the pre-tournament favorites in February, following a win at Pebble Beach and a pair of runner-up finishes. After that though, Snedeker sat out a month with a rib injury, and in his two starts back from the DL he missed the cut both times. While he possesses the skillset to win and is arguably the best putter on Tour, I’m not convinced that he’s back to 100 percent from a health standpoint.
No matter who is left standing Sunday to don the green jacket, an eventful and dramatic tournament is sure to unfold this week. Here’s hoping you’re able to enjoy, and pick up a couple units along the way. To close, here’s a prop bet that has caught my eye:
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (Top Spaniard): Since I don’t expect two-time champ Jose Maria Olazabal to play the weekend (he hasn’t made a cut here since 2007), this essentially becomes a H2H between GFC and Sergio Garcia with a bit of a three-ball price. While Garcia tied for 12th last year, it was his only result of consequence here since 2004 and I’m not inclined to believe he’ll be able to repeat it. Though he’s played well this year, Garcia’s frame of mind in majors tends toward fatalistic, and GFC has put together enough top finishes this year (T-3 at Bay Hill) to make this worth a stab.
Full list of futures courtesy of the LVH
THE MASTERS
AUGUSTA NATIONAL GOLF CLUB – AUGUSTA, GEORGIA
