EPL Round-Up
Written by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)
I have been warning for the last two weeks that this is the time when stakes on EPL games should be reduced. Although form lines are clearly drawn in the sand it is hard to assess how games will pan out. This is from both a motivational standpoint; how teams will perform under pressure, both at the top and the bottom of the table. So be careful and keep stakes to a minimum and see below for the key thoughts to this Saturday and Sunday match ups.
Fulham v Reading – Both sides have nothing to play for here bar pride. I sense this being an open game as over 2.5 goals has been seen in 11 of 17 home games for Fulham and 10 in 17 road games for Reading. If you want a bet on the outright market the trends point just one way as Fulham are 5-2-1 at home to sides in the bottom half of the EPL table.
Norwich v Aston Villa – Villa boosted their survival bid with a 6-1 win over Sunderland last Monday Night Football so will be very confident going into this game. However, Norwich are 4-4-0 on home soil to fellow lower half strugglers. There has been no away win in the 3 EPL meetings between sides but all have featured at least 2 goals.
Swansea v Man City – City won the meeting 1-0 in Manchester back in October but last season the Swans won this fixture 1-0. Since their Carling Cup win the home side have appeared more than lackluster and have not won in 3 dates at home. The value in the betting market here is squarely on the away win.
Tottenham v Southampton – Spurs are pressing for that elusive Champions League place and on paper have an easy looking home game. However, the pressure is all on the home side with the Saints comfortably placed mid table. Tottenham have struggled at home to sides in the lower half of the table this season. Their record of 4-2-2 is only the 14th best placed home record in the EPL against sides who reside in the lower half of the table. Any line you can get with Southampton +1.5 should represent some value and at least give you a good run for your money.
West Ham v Newcastle – The away side have yet again been dragged into the relegation battle and will be nervously looking over their shoulders the next few weeks. West Ham are safe from such troubles and have a 5-3-0 record at home to sides in the lower half. When you contrast that to Newcastle’s 1-3-4 away record to sides in the bottom half it shows what a job the ‘Toon Army’ will have in getting any form of result in the capital. The Hammers won 1-0 in Newcastle in November but before that the last 7 games saw an over 2.5 goal ticket cash. Home win and goal markets look appealing in this one.
QPR v Arsenal – The home side are truly dreadful and most of the current crop of players will be shipped out this summer. Their motivation can be questioned whereas the away side are gunning for a Champions League spot. Take Arsenal to win the game and more than likely easily cash a -1.5 handicap ticket.
Liverpool v Everton – Despite lying a place above their city rivals the away side will be nervous going into this game. They have not won in the EPL at Anfield since September 1999 and their form has been inconsistent in recent weeks. The 6 goal demolition of Newcastle by Liverpool without star striker Luis Suarez will give them belief they are more than a one man team. At around even money I am not sure you can go against such a long trend, value with the home win.
Man Utd v Chelsea – The champions host Chelsea in a meeting that in recent years has always seen goals. The last 6 EPL meetings have gone over 2.5 goals and the last 3 have all seen an over 3.5 goals ticket cash. With the last 6 meetings at Old Trafford all seeing at least 2 goals hit the back of the net, I would want to side with goals a plenty in Manchester.
If you have any EPL related questions I am always here to answer you, truthfully and honestly!
