Financially Prudent
Maximizing profitability from series betting is one of the most underutilized options for the casual gambler. We broke down hedging in a post earlier this week but as we sit on the cusp of the NBA Finals, I wanted to break down a common mistake I see bettors make.
At the beginning of every playoff series, no matter the sport, we all have opinions as bettors who will advance. However from a wagering standpoint your decision to bet (or not bet) should be driven by one thing and one thing only; PRICE.
Let’s use the Heat vs Spurs series to illustrate my point (hopefully everything will make a lot more sense by the time you’re done reading this). If I believed the Spurs were going to beat the Heat, betting the series before it starts at the current market price isn’t the best investment. Most shops are sitting anywhere from +170 to +175 as I write this article so for argument’s sake lets use the higher price of +175 to explain why.
If I were to bet the Spurs at +175, the math is simple: risk 1 unit to win 1.75 and let the best of 7 play out. However, why would I bet the Spurs at +175 if I could get them on the moneyline for Game 1 at +190. The next question that’s inevitably asked is why would I bet that because if the Spurs lose Game 1, my investment is dead and there’s no chance of recovery. This is where knowing your bankroll and betting expectations comes into play because maximizing potential profit also carries slightly more risk.
If the Spurs drop game 1, the series price will drop to +250 and that’s where the value shift occurs. You can now grab a better price, putting yourself in a position of strength. Obviously if you believed the Spurs needed a split in Miami to win the series anyways you’re now betting into a better number and should include your ML loss from Game 1 into your second investment.
While this is only one example, it highlights a thought process every bettor should be considering before walking to the window. If you can consistently get a better moneyline number on a road dog in games 1 or 2, look to spread your units out and take advantage of the situation. In the case of the Pacers in the Eastern Conference semifinals, +700 for the series was a much better price than grabbing +300 on the moneyline in Games 1 or 2. When the series went to Game 7, bettors sitting on a series ticket beat the market value for a one game setting and had plenty of options to profit from.
Shrewd bettors are always looking for an angle and price above all else need to be the driver in all wagering decisions.
