Confed Cup: Group A
The 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup is finally upon us, with host nation Brazil ready to show the world that everything is good to go for the summer of 2014. Though this competition is mainly used as a rehearsal for host countries to prepare for the much larger and more prominent World Cup, it also provides the tournament participants to gain some invaluable experience against quality opposition. This year is no different, as the likes of Brazil, Spain, Italy, Mexico, and Uruguay are all vying for the trophy. Also competing are Japan, Nigeria, and Tahiti, with each hoping to pull their best United States impression and make a surprise appearance in the final. While the 2009 final between Brazil and the United States was a memorable one, no one can argue that the world wants to see the host nation meet Spain in this year’s final. The talent on the field for that match would be absolutely insane, and the current soccer kings would be taking on the team they took the crown from. A lot of matches must be played before that can happen, so let’s begin our preview by analyzing the teams in each group.
Group A
Brazil
Odds To Win Group: 8/13
Odds To Win Tournament: 3/2
Matches: 6/15 vs. Japan @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Italy @ 3:00 PM
The pressure is on for coach Luiz Felipe Scolari and the Selecao to get their act together after a string of uninspiring performances. Since taking over command of the squad in late November of 2012, Scolari’s squad has only managed one win in their preparations for 2014, a 4-0 thrashing of lowly Bolivia. Other than that, Brazil has drawn four times and lost a game to England. Perhaps this lack of the wins is a result of less pressure being on the players, as the team is automatically qualified for the 2014 World Cup as the host nation and does not have to go through the rigors of CONEMBOL qualifying. While that specific pressure to qualify is not present, the pressure to impress the fans at home will always be present, regardless of who is playing or coaching. Soccer is life in Brazil, and merely making it to the final would not be enough to satisfy Brazilians considering the tournament is being played on their home turf.
Though the pressure of an entire nation is on their shoulders, there is plenty of talent to spread it around to. Scolari’s team for the tournament includes world-class talents in Dani Alves, David Luiz, Oscar, and Fred to name just a few. Even with such a stacked squad, all eyes will be on Neymar, the wonderkid who just signed a five-year deal with Barcelona. Because he resisted the temptation to ply his trade in Europe for so long, much of the world has only seen him play as a member of the national team. That will all change this summer, as Neymar’s every move will be watched by the world from here on out. While I do have some reservations about how he will handle the pressure with his new club, I think the comfort of playing in his home country will allow Neymar to have a great tournament.
Despite the immense talent on the roster, some fans of the game may think that Brazil’s most recent results show that the team is more vulnerable than ever before. While the lack of wins may carry some weight, history carries more in my opinion. The fact is that Brazil has never finished worse than second in a major tournament it has hosted (World Cups and Copa Americas). If you want to go one step further, the Selecao has never finished worse than third in any World Cup played on South American soil. This team has always thrived when playing in front of its home fans, and this tournament should be no different.
Group Prediction: 1st
Mexico
Odds To Win Group: 6/1
Odds To Win Tournament: 9/1
Matches: 6/16 vs. Italy @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Japan @ 3:00 PM
Like Brazil, El Tri has struggled mightily in 2013,and just got their first win of the year in a qualifier at Jamaica. Mexico has had such a tough go of it lately that they haven’t even scored in qualifiers at Estadio Azteca, their home fortress. The win in Kingston might have been just what Mexico needed but the pathetic effort vs Costa Rica on Tuesday probably zapped any momentum.
Mexico has been on a tear in recent international tournaments, and coach Jose Manuel de Torre needs El Tri to continue that in Brazil to keep his job secure. A look back at their recent tournament performances reveals that Mexico may be in the middle of their “Golden Age” of soccer. They won the 2011 Gold Cup to qualify for this tournament, finished first in the 2011 U-17 World Cup and third in the 2011 U-20 World Cup, and capped it off by winning gold in London at the 2012 Olympics. Yet more draws or losses in qualifying, and a bad showing in Brazil could mean the end for El Tri’s current manager. The talent is there for Mexico to get out of its group though, and the team’s form and chemistry should only get better as June wears on with how many games and practice sessions they are getting in. El Tri’s strength is in its width, and will want to get the ball outside to Andres Guardado and Pablo Barrera to start their attacks. When it comes to finishing, Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez is lethal any time he gets his foot on a ball in the box, and is a nightmare for defenders due to how well he moves off the ball. Simply put, the man has a sixth sense for being in the right spot at the right time, and makes the most of the opportunities that come his way. After all, he did score 10 goals in 22 appearances for Manchester United this year. Mexico does need its central defenders to be at its best though against Italy and Brazil, and needs Aldo de Nigris to score a few goals to take some of the load off Chicharito’s back. It would be even better for El Tri if Giovani dos Santos could get back into the starting eleven now that Mexico’s dispute with his club team has ended.
The tournament schedule sets up well for Mexico, despite them being in the tougher of the two groups. They open with their two toughest games against Italy and Brazil, before playing their final group game against Japan. Brazil at home is daunting, so Mexico’s best chances at points will be in its first and third games. It’s well documented that Italy is a slow-starter in international tournaments, and they haven’t won their opening game in a Euro Cup or World Cup since 2006. The Asian champions won’t be sacrificial lambs by any means, but any team would much rather face them than Brazil for a trip to the semifinals. This setup is extremely similar to that of the 2009 version of the Confederations Cup, where the United States defeated Egypt 3-0 and Italy lost Brazil by an identical margin to send Sam’s Army into the semis. El Tri’s recent form is concerning, but you can’t ignore how this team plays in a tournament format. In addition to the tournament successes in the last few years, Mexico has advanced out of its group in every World Cup that it has qualified for since 1980. This team knows how to get out of its group, and a favorable schedule has me backing them to advance to the semifinals.
Group Prediction: 2nd
Italy
Odds To Win Group: 5/2
Odds To Win Tournament: 13/2
Matches: 6/16 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Japan @ 6:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM
Italy is coming off an impressive showing in the 2012 Euro Cup, finishing as runner-up to the number one team in the world Spain. The team didn’t lose a game until the final and the mercurial Mario Balotelli wowed spectators around the world with his attacking prowess. Since then, the Italians have climbed to the top of their World Cup qualifying group with four wins and one draw. Throw in two friendly draws against Brazil and the Netherlands, and you have a team who hasn’t lost a game against quality opposition since late 2012.
Coach Cesare Prandelli is relying on many of the same players who took Italy to the brink of glory last summer. Familiar names like Montolivo, Chielleni, De Rossi, and Marchisio will all be making appearances in Brazil. Once again though, Italy will depend heavily on team captain Gianluigi Buffon, Andrea Pirlo, and Mario Balotelli. Buffon has been Italy’s goalkeeper since the 2002 World Cup qualifiers, and is one of the best shot-stoppers of our generation. Then you have Pirlo, who is an absolute joy to watch. He is by no means flashy, and is nowhere near being the best athlete on the field. He dictates the pace of the game and orchestrates Italy’s attack so well by creating for others that you barely notice the class he is exhibiting. Pirlo poses a threat on set pieces as well; if he hits a spot kick the way he wants to odds are that the keeper isn’t getting to it. Enjoy watching Andrea Pirlo while you can, as the 2014 World Cup will most likely be the last time he plays for the Azzurri and could be his soccer swan song. Finally, you have the imposing Mario Balotelli. When he wants to be the best player on the pitch, he often is. Other times, you can get a lackadaisical, uninspired performance. You might even see him sent off the pitch, like in his most recent game against the Czech Republic. He could single-handedly fire Italy to the finals or be might be part of the reason his team doesn’t get out of their group so it always bears watching.
Considering that all the key parts from the 2012 Euro Cup run are back for this tournament, you think they would be a lock to get out of their group yet Italy is a different beast when they leave their continent. They played very poorly in the 2002 World Cup, and failed to get out of their group in both tournaments played in South Africa. Italy only managed two wins in all three competitions combined, and lost two games per tournament. The pressure to perform may also be lacking, given how well they performed last summer. Don’t be surprised if we see a repeat of the 2009 Confederations Cup where Italy loses to Brazil in their final group game and are eliminated on tie-breaker.
Group Prediction: Third
Japan
Odds To Win Group: 10/1
Odds To Win Tournament: 33/1
Matches: 6/15 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM EST, 6/19 vs. Italy @ 6:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM
Japan recently became the first team to qualify (not including host-nation Brazil) for the 2014 World Cup after tying Australia at home. No longer having to worry about qualification, Japan is free to focus solely on getting out of their Confederations Cup group. Opening up the tournament against Brazil is an unenviable task, especially when you consider that Brazil thrashed Japan 4-0 when they last met in late 2012. Japan has pulled an upset on the road recently though, as they beat France in Saint-Denis just a few days before they were buried by Brazil last fall. They will be an underdog in every game they play in the tournament, so getting out of the group alone would be a huge success.
The Samurai Blue are led into Brazil by coach Alberto Zaccheroni, having qualified for this summer’s tournament by winning the 2011 AFC Asian Cup. Zaccheroni’s squad is comprised mostly of players who play their club ball in Europe, but there also some talents from the J-League. Four players stand out though after examining the 23-man roster which was released earlier this week. First you have Keisuke Honda, the central attacking midfielder for CSKA Moscow who Arsene Wenger named as the best player of the 2010 World Cup. Then you have Shinji Kagawa, the Manchester United man who will pair in the attack with Honda. Behind those two is Gamba Osaka’s Yasuhito Endo, a central midfielder who is the most capped player in Japan’s history. Finally, Inter defender Yuto Nagatomo is a rock in Japan’s back four, and is great in the overlap game. If Japan wants to pull some upsets and earn a place in the semifinals, it’s going to need these four players to all have fantastic tournaments.
When I look at the schedule, I chalk up the opening match against Brazil as a loss, especially when you take into account what happened the last time the two teams played. That leaves Japan needing to muster at least four points in their last two games against Italy and Mexico to have a chance at advancing. Italy has more talent on paper, but Zaccheroni should have Japan in the right positions tactically given his Italian background. Mexico is certainly beatable, but Japan will have to play very well to take down an extremely motivated El Tri in the final group game. Advancing out of the group isn’t outside of the realm of possibilities, but the odds are just stacked against Japan to accomplish that task this summer.
Group Prediction: 4th
Editor’s Picks: Japan/Brazil U3 (-120), Mexico/Italy U2.5/U2 (-125), Japan (only as dogs vs Italy), & Mexico/Brazil under (if total is listed at 3)
