Examining Value
Value is the NOW buzz word in sports betting. Its prevalent usage throughout social media reminds me of when people started saying dope, legit, and stupid (synonym for good if anyone’s lost touch). Those words all crept into the common vernacular but unbeknownst to all of us at the time they were here to stay. Value as a piece of sports betting terminology is over used; having even become a crutch bettors some bettors use to insulate themselves from their poor investments.
Depending on the skill level of the bettor, value takes on a number of different meanings. Normally it’s used to describe making a bet that has an implied expectation of success based purely on the current number. Value shouldn’t be viewed as interchangeable with the term positive expectation unless you want to make yourself sound like a dunce when surrounded by an educated gambling public. By grabbing a futures price at 75-1 before the market plummets to 25 or gobbling up the opening college football line at -20 knowing the price will close at -28 is value; betting the Charlotte Bobcats to win the NBA championship just because you have a price of 9000-1 is not. Number grabbing in this fashion won’t automatically guarantee long term success without a plan of action but rather gives you an edge to maximize profits if you play your cards right.
Given the futures example of beating the market, there’s no shame in diversifying your portfolio with a plethora of other futures knowing you already have an ace up your sleeve. By grabbing the best prices, you’ll have options to bet a variety of other teams in the mix that still allow you to turn a profit. Essentially you’re looking to invest in any commodity (team) that has a chance to yield a profit by season’s end. It won’t take a rocket scientist to explain why hedging a 75-1 is that much easier than doing it at 25-1.
Wondering how to calculate expected value? Read this great article from Pinnacle Sports
In the instance of beating the market on a line and being 100% certain the price won’t move against you, double up your initial bet knowing you can come back the other way when the market reaches the peak to risk 1.2 positions for a potential 3 position windfall. Last I checked turning a 110 into a potential 3-1 scenario is anything but bad business. To simplify it in stock market terms it’s the equivalent of buying 100 shares at $10 and 100 shares at $20. The end result is a net position of 200 shares valued at $15 a piece.
The other misconception about value betting in sports is that it can only be found when picking underdogs This couldn’t be further from the truth and is absolutely 100% incorrect. If you believe a favorite should be -14 yet opens at -7, that’s a 7 point discrepancy from the market and constitutes more than just a little bit of opportunity. Don’t be one to get caught in the trap of thinking only +230 compared to +115 is value when exact same thought process applies to -220 when the real price needs to be -550 (Floyd fight anyone?).
All that’s been shared is well and good but it shouldn’t take away from the name of the game in this business; cashing tickets. Unless you understand how to take advantage of grabbing value at every turn just be careful over extending yourself on positions (either outrights or futures) that don’t really have a chance to win. Anyone who has listened to my advice over the years will hear me say all the time beating the market is the best indicator someone is a pro more, even more so than an astronomical winning percentage over the short term. As a former bookmaker you’re trained to look for guys that get the best of the number, not those that lay -7 on a game that opened -3.5 who just happen to win. Do your homework, find your edge, and capitalize…just don’t be “that guy” who says every bet has value just to make yourself sound cool.
