Romo Conundrum
The value of perfect information to a sports bettor should never be understated. We saw bettors taking the points last night with the Eagles last night continuing to lay the price up to -2.5, even 3 in some spots before Romo’s herniated disc was made public.
As it often does, mis-information in the sports betting world predominates even when delivered through respected channels. Tony Romo was officially downgraded to “expected to miss” for this weekend’s pivotal game against Philadelphia. Of course upon this announcement, every sportsbook operator pulled the price of Eagles -2.5/-3 (depending on the shop) knowing an adjustment was required based on the QB’s absence. Lost in the shuffle is that you could have faded the Cowboys yesterday at the top of the market when Dallas was listed as a favorite at a handful of books.
On the overnight a prominent offshore book made Philly -2.5 after seeing money continue to flow in on the Eagles at the short opening number given their dominance against the Bears. When lines move all the time, why is this important you ask? Well in a situation like this, someone HAD TO KNOW Romo’s health. In age of real time information keeping news of this magnitude completely under wraps is damn near impossible. I’m not saying a lot of people knew he’d need surgery but rest assured there was someone outside of Tony Romo’s inner circle who understood there was more than just a slight possibility he would be on the shelf this weekend.
I know people have argued that according to the line move Romo is only worth 4 to 4.5 pts given the shift in the market once the injury was announced. However the actual move is closer to 7 (or more) when you factor in the synergistic effect recency bias has combined with the injury. How much is Tony Romo actually worth? According to the industry’s leading oddsmaker Kenny White, he told me Romo is worth about 7 pts to the Cowboys. For all those clamoring for Kyle Orton and his 39 pass attempts since the start of last season, be careful what you wish for with so much on the line this weekend. Actually, this injury could help the Cowboys for one simple reason: it may force them to run the ball, a method of play calling they’ve seemed to abandon at every other key juncture this season.
