Chasing History
The big day has finally arrived — California Chrome will attempt to be the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed accomplished racing’s greatest feat in 1978. The general consensus is that he is a big favorite to win, and rightfully so. Still, many others have come to New York in the same situation, with the same expectations — and failed. What makes Chrome any different?
I labored long and hard over whether to attend the race in person. I have witnessed four prior attempts at a Triple Crown, and none were successful. Belmont Park after a horse loses the shot at a Triple Crown is a very sad place; indeed, I have never seen any more disappointed crowd at ANY sporting event than the folks at Belmont after Smarty Jones was run down by Birdstone 10 years ago. Ultimately, I decided that a) I’m a bad luck charm and b) as much I want to see a Triple Crown won, I don’t want to see one lost even more.
Here’s my opinion of the horses that will be chasing Chrome (listed in order of preference, worst to first):
Matterhorn – I have no clue why this Todd Pletcher-trained colt is entered here, other than that Danza & Intense Holiday are unable to go, so Pletcher feels the need to be multiply-represented here. He’s 0 for 3 in 2014, beaten a combined 34 lengths. Would need to take a huge leap forward to even hit the board.
General a Rod – Wasn’t a fan of this guy in the Derby, and he proved me right. Was less of a fan in the Preakness, and he ran credibly, missing 3rd by a head. Improving? I doubt it, and is more likely to be extremely taxed after 4 hard races in the last 3 months. Will probably be more a pace factor today with Rosie in the irons, but I think he be fading when the real racing begins.
Matuszak – Bill Mott doesn’t usually enter horses in spots where they are overmatched, but I still can’t find anything to recommend this guy. 1 for 8 lifetime, and beaten badly in his graded stakes attempts…he does indeed look overmatched here.
Commanding Curve – I had some good things to say about this colt before the Derby, and he lit up the exacta with a 2nd place finish. He’s been laying in wait ever since, and there seem to be an awful lot of people very high on his chances to pull off the upset. Do not count me among those. I have discussed it before, but there is a myth that deep closers benefit from the extra distance of the Belmont. In fact, deep closing one-trick ponies like this guy rarely win this race — Jazil in 2006 was the most recent. It’s not impossible, of course, but I’m not sure he’s really as talented as his Derby performance would have you believe. Plus, multiple handicapping sources I use indicate he is due for a regressive bounce here. Taking a major stand against his chances.
Commissioner – Certainly has the breeding, sired by 1992 Belmont winner A.P. Indy and out of a mare by 1997 Belmont winner Touch Gold, he should be able to get the distance without any difficulty. Problem is, he just looks too slow. He’s 0 for 4 in his graded stakes attempts, beaten by an average of 8 lengths. Because he can probably stay the trip, he could be an exotics candidate, but I give him little to no shot at a victory.
Tonalist – This begins the section of horses who I actually think are capable of producing the upset. However, in Tonalist’s case, I still find it unlikely. After his huge performance in the Peter Pan, he’s become something of a wise-guy horse, and could easily go off as the 2nd choice to Chrome. He earned a huge 107 Beyer figure for that win, but he beat a lousy field. He only has win over a fast track in his career. As I have talked about before, it’s not uncommon for a three-year-old to pair two huge numbers together, and he may well be sitting on that 2nd huge number. But he looks like very much of an underlay to me. If the price goes up, I might be interested, but there are other contenders I prefer.
Samraat – Very intriguing prospect. This feisty New York-bred has never run a clunker, and seems to give an honest effort every time. His 5th place Derby performance was probably even better than it looks on paper. He’s among a number of horses who’ve been waiting since the Derby for their revenge on Chrome. My problem with this guy is that I’m not sure he’s going to relish the added distance. The key factor for him is the race; if they are walking down the backstretch, I certainly think that favors Chrome, but I also think it brings Samraat in the mix. The price is likely going to be nice, and I think he’s in good shape to have a shot at a trifecta finish. An upset win seems unlikelier.
Medal Count – Another of those that have been resting since the Derby. He finished 8th in that one, with an incredibly troubled trip. I love the breeding on this one, and he’s been working sharply for astute trained Dale Romans in the time being. Needs to stay a bit more engaged early in this one, but I love his chances to run a big race at a big price. Leave out of exotics at your own peril.
Ride On Curlin – Ran a very nice Preakness, giving California Chrome something to think about down the stretch. I’ve gone back and forth about his chances here. On the plus side, he looks to be getting better and better every start, and the son of Dynaformer is bred to run all day. That said, he’s still never won a race at a distance beyond six furlongs, and he’s on a five-race losing streak. Finally, there’s yet another jockey switch, this time to John Velazquez. That’s not really a negative, but just something else to overcome. His daddy Curlin was edged out in this race by Rags To Riches in 2007. Can the son get revenge? I’m inclined to think he will hit the board, but ultimately suffer the same fate as Papa.
Wicked Strong – I’m not going to beat around the bush — I think this colt represents the biggest threat to California Chrome winning the Triple Crown. Indeed, I think he will prevent California Chrome from winning the Triple Crown. Overcame an awful trip in the Derby to finish 4th (albeit some of that can be attributed to a particularly reckless ride by Rajiv Muragh, who stays on in the irons today.) Has fantastic breeding for this spot, and comes in off a brilliant 5-furlong work last weekend. I may sound contradictory here, based on my earlier statement about deep closers, which Wicked Strong could possibly be characterized as here. Perhaps, but this colt strikes me as a much more versatile type, and not the proverbial one-trick pony that Commanding Curve seems to be. I think he’s going to be in a nice stalking position today, and if he gets a good trip, will be in perfect position to pounce in the lane. I envision a strong stretch battle between Wicked Strong & California Chrome, with shades of Real Quiet/Victory Gallop in 1998. If Chrome prevails, the entire racing community, myself included, will be overjoyed. But if it’s Wicked Strong that crosses the wire first, don’t say I didn’t tell you so.
Some head-to-head matchups I like:
Ride On Curlin -105 over Commanding Curve
Wicked Strong -175 over Tonalist
Samraat -140 over General a Rod
