Undervalued
The NFL truly is a what have you done for me lately league when it comes to gambling. Public perception plays a huge role in how oddsmakers adjust numbers after just a single performance. Identifying over valued or under valued sides becomes paramount if you plan to stay one step ahead of the market. Last week we saw a perennial NFL bottom feeder in Jacksonville get obliterated on the road by the Redskins and backup QB Kirk Cousins. Anyone who watched that systematic destruction would be hard pressed to walk to the window this week backing the Jags with confidence. However historical trends indicate that this might not be as crazy an idea as it would appear on the surface. Thanks to friends of the program at Spreadapedia we uncovered a few fascinating numbers.
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Home underdogs the week following a loss by 30 pts or more have produced a record of 84-53-5 ATS, good enough for a 61% success rate (database goes back to 1978)
If we dig deeper into the figures to adjust for more recent league trends that win percentage ticks up even further…
Since 2000: 41-23-5 ATS (64%)
Since 2009: 12-7-1 ATS (63%)
Now, if we go deeper applying it to teams that have lost by 30+ AND are listed as home dogs of +6.5 or higher the win percentage goes through the roof…
All Time: 41-20-1 ATS (67%)
Since 2000: 27-10-1 ATS (72%)
Since 2009: 9-3 ATS (75%)
One of the first things that jumps out is how infrequently this opportunity actually presents itself. Is it a significant enough sample size to use for future reference? I think so and here’s why…
Trends often are built on a house of cards. I mean if you look far and wide enough you can find a ridiculous trend to support almost any scenario not only in football but every other sport as well. However, what I think makes this angle different is that there’s a very real reason why this situation is so profitable. Teams that are embarrassed typically come back the following week with a chip on their shoulder, especially in front of home fans. It also indicates the previous game is rock bottom and the resulting point spread reflects the worse case scenario. Not only does the home team’s opponent overlook them as well but oddsmakers know it’s going to be a challenge attracting dog money meaning they have to inflate the line. Personally I would have been much more inclined to back Jacksonville if Indianapolis hung on Monday against the Eagles than I am now with the Colts sitting at 0-2. Let’s just say history indicates there’s a lot worse situational bets you can make this weekend than backing the hapless Jaguars against fellow cellar dweller Indy.
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