Seeking value is what we’re always after as sports bettors. There’s a reason the professionals don’t care about the names on the front or back of jerseys and look to bet purely on what their numbers tell them. Isolating the right time to bet on, pass, or bet against certain teams is critical to long term success because oddsmakers can’t always quantify situational analysis in a betting number. I was taught a college basketball betting rule when I first started in this business and really believe it will always withstand the test of time.
Assuming a 30 game sample size for an average college basketball team; teams will play 5 games above their head (bet on), hold true to their actual power rating for 20 (pass those games), and below their capabilities for 5 (bet against). If you recognize these scheduling quirks when they present themselves throughout the season you give yourself a great opportunity to optimize value and gain an edge on the bookmaker’s numbers that may not incorporate valuable handicapping intangibles. There may only be a few short weeks left in the college basketball season but with so many teams vying for conference titles, conf tourney byes, and bolstered resumes for the committee use every angle possible to identify that hidden edge.