Fight Night 63
Welcome Enthusiasts to another UFC card. We would be remiss if we did not wish all Fight Enthusiasts a happy Holiday. Whether one celebrates Easter, Passover or no holiday at all we want to express our best wishes to all this special weekend. For Uncle Louie it’s all about Faith, Famiglia, Friends and ….Fights!
UFC 2015: 23-20 + 1,112.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We utilize $100 to easily disclose bottom line results as every GambLou.com suggestion is accounted for publicly each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display our gaming capability while providing our readers with 100% transparency).
-Let’s Fight-
Poirier -185 vs. Ferreira +165
Poirier is returning to the 155 weight limit after testing the 145’s. This return to us signifies a fighter struggling with fight identity after a decimating loss to the galling Gaelic Conor McGregor. In his return to 155 Poirier is facing a capable Brazilian off of two serious fights in which he lost to a top contender in Dariush and defeated a chap in Nijem that previously defeated Dariush! This capable Brazilian Black belt in Jiu-Jitsu is one dynamic fighter and we feel this is a tough spot for Poirier to say it simply. Ferreira opened +110 and now we can grab and extra half dollar!
Ferreira +165
(We’ll be monitoring this line for if the parlay playing public does the usual, this line may grow and we’re about value so be patient and try to squeeze another dime of gaming value out of this line if possible)
Chiesa -420 vs Clarke +340
If value is our goal let’s look no further than this fight. While Chiesa is the taller, longer man here we feel that Clarke is a dangerous opponent at +175 to +200 let alone +325!? Clarke (who fights out of the dynamic MMALab) will be able to press Chiesa into the late rounds and get this fight to the mat where he will have advantage in grappling and cardio. Chiesa’s angle we feel will be to keep this fight standing and we don’t believe his striking (though improved) is enough to make him -400 in this spot.
Clarke +340 (half)
(See note above as the PPP may provide increased value on Canadian canine)
Masvidal -110 vs Iaquinta -110
One would be foolish to ignore Jorge’s miss at the weigh-ins and one would be obtuse to make too much over a half pound that was made 40 minutes later. Masvidal did open a bit high at -190 as we had him a worthy -150 to -160 chalk in our own handicapping. Al is young and on a three fight stoppage run but he is giving up height and a large 4” reach advantage to a completely under appreciated fighter. Masvidal has been the Duke of decisions lately but he is a worthy counter-puncher and has great experience. Al could walk into a “10th avenue Freeze out in this one” for Jorge is very slick especially when one is charging in as we expect Al to do. Now the overreaction to weight offers us a chalk fighter at a pick-em price? ‘Swing it Easy’.
Masvidal -110
(We will wait here to see if we can catch a plus price but if we see the price move away we will jump Jorge anywhere near +100 to -115)
Mendes -440 vs Lamas +350
We are stunned at the disregard Ricardo Lamas is receiving in this bout from both sharps and squares. While we view Chad Mendes as a top three contender in this division the fact remains that he has had two unsuccessful shots at the champion Aldo. We view one of Mendes’ biggest obstacles in this fight as emotional. What will be the effects of his second title loss to Jose Aldo? We believe they will be great and that obstacle will display itself in this matchup. Ricardo Lamas sports a 2”advantage in height and a superior 5” reach advantage over Mendes which would be foolish for us to disregard in a fight we feel will take place on the feet. Lamas will use kicks and reach to keep Mendes from double leg diving in this fight. Our feel is that Mendes is also mentally fragile after his five round war with Aldo. At 32 years old Lamas fully understands that this is his best and most likely only chance to gain a position to fight for the title in a division steeped with competent contenders. Lamas last fight was against an almost mirror image of Mendes in the more than capable Dennis Bermudez. Bermudez prepared Lamas for this fight without question in our minds. Lamas will give us his best shot Saturday and it’s our understanding that at -450 Mendes is a bloated favorite in this bout. People are crediting Mendes for past accomplishments and not grasping the fragility of his mental condition. We discuss gaming ‘value’ often and our attempt to be on its side. Gaming value in this fight sides with Ricardo Lamas and we will position ourselves on the ‘value side’ of this fight.
Lamas +350 (half) Lamas (pts handicap +5.5) +175
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