Fight Night 68 Jun06

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Fight Night 68

UFC FN68 New Orleans: Tae Kwon Do, TKO’s and Zydeco

Welcome Enthusiasts. Today’s UFC card from the Crescent City features more dogs than the Westminster Kennel Club. We’ll prance right in!

Fight analysis provided by Gamblou

UFC 2015: 36-45 + $602.00

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We use $100 to easily track our results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display our profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Morales -170 vs. Quinonez +160

Morales arrived to weigh-ins 4lbs overweight which means distraction and lack of professionalism. Morales will want to stand and bang but Quinones will be able to get him to the mat for a maul where he will own advantage. Those following us on twitter know we jumped Jose Alberto as soon as Chimmy wallowed onto the scale.

Quinones +160 (half)

Abreu -175 vs. Collier +165

Abreu is dynamic on the floor with his Jiu-Jitsu but will he employ it as IQ has not been his strength. Collier arrives the much taller, younger longer fighter and owns distinct advantage on the feet. We feel Collier is the more desperate fighter after looking great for a round in his last fight before getting iced with a head kick. We believe the live dog is

Collier +165( half)

Rivera Jr. -130 vs. Caceres +120

Nothing will make a UFC fighter work his arse off more than the cut line where each of these fighters stand after two consecutive losses each. Rivera is a striker that has some power but he is shorter, older and giving up 3” of reach to Caceres. Caceres is the better-rounded fighter who has been working on his strength. A cardio monster we feel Caceres will do what it takes to get his arm raised here. We released this pick via Twitter the minute it opened up.

Caceres +120

Soto -180 vs. Birchak +170

Soto is getting love because of his showing against Dillashaw. That was such short notice we feel Soto’s fine showing was more Dillashaw unable to adjust in short time than Soto being a world beater. Fact is that Birchak is the bigger, longer guy with a reach advantage. He’s aggressive, well rounded and we feel is ready to step on Soto here.

Birchak +170

Tavares -165 vs. Ortega +155

Broken record. Ortega is the younger, bigger, taller man that holds reach advantage. While Tavares can be dominant over many on the feet we feel this fight is going to the mat for a technical display of prowess by both men. Tavares’ advantages on the feet do not equate to advantage on the floor against a wrestler/grappler like Ortega. For this reason as well the physical advantages Ortega possesses we’ll side with another mangy dog here.

Ortega +155

Mitrione -185 vs. Rothwell +175

We wanted to like Rothwell even though Mitrione is the more athletic guy. Physical numbers don’t come into play in our position for this match-up but what we saw at weigh-ins does. While Mitrione was eager to stare and glare Ben was tepid and actually looked down and away from Matt. Many take this as a show of weakness….we took it as Rothwell bringing full metal focus to this fight. Ben has experience and dynamite in his hands. He also owns a distinct advantage on the mat.

Rothwell +175

We did tweet agreement yesterday to a position on Dustin Poirier -170. Poirier is now -210 and climbing. He fights a guy that missed weight but made little attempt to cut the extra pounds which we feel is completely unprofessional and unfair. Fighters missing weight do have statistical disadvantage in the UFC which is why we made the position.