History at Stake Jun06

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History at Stake

Once again, we have at arrived at Belmont Saturday with a chance to see history, as American Pharoah attempts to become the first horse to win thoroughbred racing’s greatest prize, the Triple Crown, since Affirmed in 1978. He is heavily favored to do so, but so were almost all of the others who’ve been in his position in the intervening years, including the most recent failure, 2014’s California Chrome. Seven other colts stand in his way, but the daunting 1 ½ mile oval at Belmont may his biggest competitor; that and the Ghosts of Failed Attempts. Are American Pharoah and Victor Martinez up for the challenge? Let’s look at his challengers:

All analysis provided by Ky Derby Jay

Mubtaahij – Arrived at the Kentucky Derby off a nice score in Dubai with a bit of fanfare, and a fair share of supporters. I was not one of those, and he seemed a bit too slow for that crowd. He validated my concerns, with a dull 8th finish. He had of the best trips of the field, and had no valid excuse. That said, he still has one of the top trainers in the world in his corner, and could be eligible for an improvement off the extra five weeks of seasoning. He also figures to offer a bit of value. I would consider him for exotics, but I can’t see him winning the race.

Tale of Verve – Wellllll…I completely discounted this guy in the Preakness, and he lit up the exacta and trifecta prices with an improbable 2nd place finish. He basically picked up the pieces of a shattered race, and passed horses that had stopped. He did earn career best figures across all formats, but it wasn’t like he had big numbers to surpass. His Preakness performance does indicate that staying the 12F at Belmont is possible, but unless this race falls apart like Baltimore, I don’t see him back on the board.

Madefromlucky – A Pletcher charge, he comes off a nice little win in the Peter Pan that earned him some sparkling speed figures. That’s the good news. The bad news is that his previous two races were beatdowns at the hands of American Pharoah at Oaklawn. Did the Peter Pan signal that this well-bred colt has finally turned a corner? Perhaps, and the breeding suggests that 12F is doable. Still, this seems like a case of been there, done that with this guy, and I’m taking a stand against.

Frammento – Well, lookie here…a Nick Zito trained horse trying to spoil a Triple Crown bid. Zito has previously foiled the bids of Smarty Jones (with Birdstone) and Big Brown (with D’Tara). Birdstone was a very good horse; Frammento seems more like D’Tara…who wasn’t. It’s hard to completely discount Zito in this spot, but I’m not seeing much to like here.

Frosted – Will likely be the second choice to the favorite, and seemingly deservedly so. Trip handicappers have fallen in love with his 4th place Derby finish, which featured a trouble start that shuffled him farther off the pace than he would have preferred and forced him wide the entire way. He wound up covering more ground than any other horse in the race, and nearly passed Dortmund from 3rd. That came on the heels of a very nice score in the Wood Memorial. He should be racing closer to the pace today, which alone should put him in the mix. My main concern is that it will likely take a third-straight career effort to knock off AP (and the others), and that may be asking a bit much. I think he could win, but I like another’s upset chances better.

Keen Ice – Here is your “deep closer that made up a lot of ground in the Derby, so that will obviously translate to the Belmont.” It’s a common mistake that I see handicappers make over and over. Most years, the Belmont just doesn’t set up for a deep closer, and with American Pharoah & Materiality running on the front end in this one, I think that is the case here. Keen Ice is another one who had a troubled trip in the Derby, as he was making a pretty bold rally on the far turn before finding himself completely blocked. He will likely be running strong late, but the leaders may be far gone by then.

Materiality – Readers will remember that this guy was my Kentucky Derby selection. Am I going back to the well in the Belmont? Indeed I am. His Florida Derby triumph continues, in my opinion, to be the best race a 3YO has run this year. His Derby was deceptively nice as well; after being left at the gate, and shuffled far, far back, he found himself running way off the lead for the first time in his young career. Yet, he still rallied from 17th to 6th in the stretch, an indication of both his toughness and a new-found versatility. Will that experience help him take down AP? Perhaps. One thing is for certain, and that is that he likely is the major factor that will determine whether AP can be beat, regardless of whether he is the one to do it, as it is imperative that he keep the favorite honest early. If AP has opened up a 2 length lead after the first ½ mile, I think the race might be over. But I doubt that Materiality is going let that happen. If this horse is a good as I think he is, I think we are looking at a hell of a two-horse race down the stretch.

American Pharoah – Not much to add about this guy. People want to see a Triple Crown winner, and who am I to tell them otherwise. Oh, wait….

The picks: 1)Materiality, 2)American Pharoah, 3)Mubtaahij, 4)Frosted

Matchup plays: Materiality +110 vs Frosted, Keen Ice -125 vs Tale of Verve

Undercard Plays: Curalina (Race 7), Discreet Marq (Race 8), Big Blue Kitten (Race 10)