Fight Night 73
UFC FN73 Teixeira vs. St. Preux: Tennessee Tapout
All fight analysis provided by @Gamblou
Welcome fight Enthusiasts. The UFC fight card from Nashville seems steeped with shepherds so in keeping with our ‘Swing it Easy’ approach, we’ll dive deep with dirty dogs. Tonight we’ll be hunting for hounds marauding Music City like a mastiff in the trash at Jack’s BBQ. A real surprise eh?
UFC 2015: 57-70 + $1,217.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
-Let’s Fight-
Kakai -115 vs. Saenz +105
The opening fight on the Fox preliminary card features a wrestler/grappler in Saenz against a relatively one dimensional striker in Kakai. Kakai has been put on the mat in prior bouts so we feel this sets up well for Saenz. Frankie opened -130 and the traffic has come in on the Swede whose had to travel into the USA for this opportunity. We’ll grab some value and take the higher paced more well-rounded fighter in this one as we mentioned on MMA Meltdown Radio this week…..
Saenz +105
McMann -260 vs. Nunes +240
We chuckle at ‘expert’ fight prognosticators claiming the scale for McMann was wrong yet no other fighters from yesterday’s weigh-ins had issue with their announced weight. Sara McMann is a very capable fighter yet the distraction from missing weight coupled with the raw numbers that display disadvantage for doing so empowered us take a poke at Nunes +220 (half) post their weigh-in. Nunes is a fierce fighter who may own early advantage provided she can keep this fight standing. If McMann employs any IQ she’ll stick to wrestling and take this fight to the floor. We see this as two tough, capable, qualified Women’s bantam weight fighters dueling in a large octagon in a very close decision type result.
Nunes +240 (half) Over 2.5 -130* (half)
Hall -355 vs. Bamgbose +320
It’s Hall’s head that we doubt consistently and he steps in there with a guy trying to make a name for himself, a guy that is fighting to provide youth in Africa with gym’s to train in and a guy that has absolutely no fear of getting in there with Uriah. This position is as much based on what we saw at weigh-ins out of Bamgbose as our hesitations with Hall.
Bamgbose +320 (half)
Borg -425 vs. Herrera +380
Borg is as impervious an opponent as ‘the Borg’ in star Trek. He is a superior wrestler, fine striker, punches with power and improves with each fight thus far in his career. That said he entered weigh-ins yesterday looking ‘Torn and Frayed’*. Borg then punctuates our doubt about him by choosing not to lose the last ¾ pound and as a result now donates 20% of his purse to Herrera. Herrera is a well-rounded fighter that is taller and owns a reach advantage over Borg. Further he is as complete a fighter as his opponent albeit without the level of competition thus far. When one chases chum like we do it is mandatory to try to take advantage of any and all angles which is what we are trying to accomplish here. Hopefully readers caught out release yesterday at the scale when we grabbed….
Herrera +430 (half)
Brunson -380 vs. Alvey +340
Brunson has more ways to win this fight but he opened -210 and the parlay playing public have darn near doubled his price to -380. Clearly Brunson will want to take Smilin’ Sam to the mat and wipe that smirk off his face. Alvey is no dummy, he sports fight IQ and he’s aware of what’s coming. Alvey’s one strength is a lethal left and Brunson’s defense and chin are his only areas of concern. Alvey is being overlooked and under handicapped so we must view him as a value in a fight that could well be quite awkward as both of these luchador’s are lefties.
Alvey +340 (half)
St. Preux -110 vs. Teixeira +100
St. Preux is an ex-Volunteer fighting in front of his home fans; he’s a young, athletic, explosive fighter with power. He is also raw, a bit wide with his punches and off a couple wins against guys whose chins were famously fragile. Tonight’s opponent (to those with narrow perspective) appears to be on a decline but we beg to differ. Teixeira has had a couple of losses but his level of competition, his level of fight ability and the realization that he will be a nonfactor at Light Heavyweight if he loses this fight provide him with a desperate, singular focus. Teixeira knows this is the most important fight in his career tonight. He’ll enter this bout sporting a gritty, grinder’s mentality which we feel will be a true test in style for the younger less experienced St. Preux and Glover will want to maul St. Preux and not allow him distance of space. Another contributing factor in our position is the results each realized against Ryan Bader. So tonight we get an opportunity to take an experienced world class Jiu-Jitsu fighter with prolific power, ability in any situation and a granite chin at a price of -105 off an opening line of -140? We’re likely to add another unit to this position but will wait as we believe by the time this goes off we may be able to snag another dime or so on Teixeira here….
Teixeira +100
*Footnote to @Y2Casey as contributor because there is ‘the right way’ and every other way!
* Rolling Stones reference to song from one of their best albums of all time, “Exile on Main Street”.
