Belmont Stakes
There may not be a triple crown at stake in this year’s Belmont but that doesn’t mean there’s not an opportunity to pick up a few books at the race window. Kentucky Derby Jay provides his third and final installment of comprehensive race analysis for the third jewel.
Governor Malibu — Improving Christophe Clement-trained colt seems to be a very trendy pick. Rallied nicely to close for 2nd in the Peter Pan, generally considered a key prep for the Belmont. Likely to be overbet, and I’m not crazy about his ability to get the lengthy 1.5 mile trip. Will let this one beat me.
Destin — Wasn’t a huge fan of his chances in the Derby, but seems to be in a better spot here. Ran a decent Derby, making a nice middle move to get to 4th, before encountering a little traffic and dropping back to 6th. That same move today will put him in the mix. Key is how much Pletcher got this guy to improve in the five-week layoff. Contender, but probably just for bottom part of exotics.
Cherry Wine — Could probably just copy my Preakness notes for this guy. He passed a bunch of exhausted horses at Pimlico to rally for 2nd, and will now likely catch a lot of action today off that effort. Myth among many bettors is that closers fare very well at Belmont, but that isn’t really the case for deep closers like Cherry Wine. Can certainly be on the trifecta ticket with similar performance as Preakness, but doubt that gets him in the winner circle.
Suddenbreakingnews — Might as well just say “See Cherry Wine.” Made a late move to rally for 4th at Churchill Downs, and is another that is coming off a layoff since then. I liked his chances in Louisville, and I think he’s probably a slightly more talented colt than Cherry Wine, but I also think he’s likely just running for the back end of the trifecta.
Stradivari — He was the wiseguy horse in the Preakness, and I chose to discount him there, to my benenfit. However, he didn’t run badly, and running in grading stakes company for the first time was clearly a good learning opportunity. Pletcher showed absolutely no hesitation in running back in three weeks here, and that tells me he’s not here just for the experience this go-around. The Medaglia D’Oro colt is very dangerous here, and is eligible for a nice bounceback effort that makes him a viable win candidate.
Gettysburg — I find it hard to believe that Gettysburg is being used as anything but a rabbit for his trainer Steve Asmussen’s other entry, Creator, unless the colt’s owner (and noted publicity hound) Bobby Flay just wanted to have another horse in the race. That said, he’s going to gun for the lead, but I can’t envision a scenario where’s he anywhere close to the lead at the finish line.
Seeking The Soul & Forever d’Oro — Both are coming off a maiden wins just two weeks ago, so these guys would seem to be over his head. But owner Chuck Fipke and trainer Dallas Stewart are no strangers to getting long shots to hit the board in the Triple Crown races as of late (Golden Soul in 2013 Kentucky Derby and Tale of Verve in 2015 Preakness both finished 2nd at huge prices). Forever d’Oro boasts the kind of pedigree you’d want to see from a Belmont contender. He is out of Fipke’s Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) Lemons Forever, who is a son of Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. He’s trained well, and could very well spice up the payouts. Seeking The Soul seems less likely here, but given the connections, I wouldn’t entirely discount his chances here either.
Trojan Nation — Ran as a maiden in the Kentucky Derby, and I discounted his chances entirely. He’s still a maiden, and he’s still an easy toss.
Lani — Along with Exaggerator, they will be the only two colts to run in all three legs of Triple Crown. Certainly ran better in Baltimore than Louisville, but not quite sure what the connections expect to change in New York. Seems destined for a mid-pack finish, and I’m inclined to pass entirely on the Japanese-bred horse this time around.
Exaggerator — Preakness winner will be a deserving big favorite here. On paper, it seems unlikely that he loses this race. But the rigors of three Triple Crown races in five weeks often have a way of invalidating what’s on paper. And I won’t even mention the distractions surrounding jockey Kent Desormeaux. But rather than looking for reasons why he will fail, it’s probably just best to say that he is absolutely the one to beat.
Brody’s Cause — But just as I say that about Exaggerator, I come to this guy, and I love his chances. 7th place finish in Derby wasn’t spectacular by any means, but it wasn’t a bad effort, and the horse got a nightmare trip, and looked to be one of just a small few who were still doing their best running at the end of the race. Yes, I know I said to beware using deep closers, and he fits that bill somewhat, but he also strikes me as much more versatile. The workout tab has been fantastic, and suggests to me that he’s going to be running a lot closer to the front than previously. Beating Exaggerator is going to be a tough task, but he is worth taking a shot with at a nice price.
Creator — Arkansas Derby winner flopped in Louisville with a 13th place finish. He’s another on the deep closer list. I have little doubt that Asmussen will coax some improvement out of him here, and he’s high enough on him that he’s entering a rabbit to help his chances. That said, there are similarly-situated colts who I like better, and who will likely command a more generous price. Not going to be shocked if he hits the board, but I will likely play against.
My projected top 4:
1-Brody’s Cause
2-Exaggerator
3-Stradivari
4-Forever d’Oro
Recommended match plays:
Stradivari -120 vs Creator
Brody’s Cause +115 vs Cherry Wine
