Citywide Survey
Booking futures is free money for bookmakers willing to pay attention (barring the unforeseen ridiculous outcome like Leicester City winning the EPL). There’s no “right” or “wrong” way to establish a market however working under the business principle of stealing without a gun won’t get you a lot of repeat business.
I spent the last few days driving around town comparing prices using NFL futures as my litmus test for the apples to apples comparison. Some of the numbers contained in the full graphic below were nothing short of staggering. Marquee establishments showed minimal regard for offering customers a fair shake in a betting market already known for giving the house a substantial advantage. The numbers color coded in green are the best prices currently available in town. I realize the graphic is a little difficult to read but I wanted to show every major casino operator’s numbers listed side by side.
(Prices included were available from either the sheets in each casino or their mobile application at time of press)
Listed below each casino’s numbers is their overall hold percentage. Hold percentage is defined as the percentage of money won compared to total volume wagered. Despite what some casino operators try to tell you nobody in this business has ever paid their bills in hold percentage. Normally there are two different philosophies book managers utilize: higher volumes with lower hold or retain a bigger piece of a small pie with high hold and low volume.
The hold percentage numbers listed here are theoretical hold. With 32 teams (theoretically) having a chance to win the title each team’s championship prospects are ultimately worth a different value to the house. The lower the hold percentage the better a bet for the player. Each casino raises and lowers teams based on their own opinions meaning if one book is higher on the Steelers than the Seahawks they may offer Pittsburgh at 8-1 while others prefer to use 10. Regardless of how you price individual teams preserving a lower hold means every time a price is dropped there should be a corresponding uptick elsewhere in the market.
Here’s a list of the 9 casinos I surveyed and their corresponding hold
- CG Technology: 23%
- Westgate Superbook: 26%
- Wynn, Southpoint, William Hill: 31%
- Stations Casinos, Caesars: 39%
- MGM Mirage: 46%
- Coasts Casinos 51%
It’s always a shame to let a sucker keep his money but even a sucker knows when he’s not being given a fair fight.
