EPL Weekend Round-Up
IT’S TIME…for your weekly dose of Premier League intel from James Kempton. As always he’s here to share his thoughts on all of the week’s biggest matches (and some not so big ones) but with one thing in mind; making you money.
Manchester United v Bournemouth
Manchester United -1.75 and 3 goals
United won this fixture 3-1 last season and each of the three EPL meetings of the sides has seen a Yes on Both Teams To Score and overs wager cash. Those trends plus the recent decline in the fortunes of the Cherries suggest that the over 3 goals bet could offer some value. Set at United -1.75 the match market doesn’t appeal to me greatly especially given the way Bournemouth have shown they can generate chances even against the elite teams.
Leicester City v Hull City
Leicester -0.5 and 2.25 goals
Hull started the Leicester decline with that 2-1 win on EPL opening day this season. I’m not convinced though that this Foxes revival that started on MNF will continue but I’m not prepared to get in the way here at just -0.5 on the home win. A game to leave alone completely and if you want to here my full thoughts on the Leicester situation then listen to my weekly EPL podcast with @petenordsted where I pull no punches!
Stoke City v Middlesbrough
Stoke -0.5 and 2 goals
It was one apiece when the sides met in August at the Riverside and Middlesbrough will look to grind out a result. It’s unlikely that Mark Hughes will pick the same old workmanlike looking side that he did for their trip to White Hart Lane last Sunday where they were pummeled. I lean to the home team but would want to see a more youthful and flair driven home team selected before I wagered on them.
Swansea City v Burnley
Swansea -0.5 and 2.25 goals
The Swans won 1-0 at Turf Moor back in August and looking back with what we know now about Burnley’s home form that was a great result! In the 2014-15 season Swansea registered a 1-0 double when the sides met in EPL action. I like the Swans to get the job done here again. Although Burnley took a point from their trip to Hull last week they were anything but convincing. It seems almost inconceivable that Burnley score more than once in a game so I really like the home win here. Home win!
Watford v Southampton
Southampton -0.25 and 2.25 goals
It was 1-1 when the sides met at St Marys in August and last season both games went under 2.5 goals with this game finishing goalless. How impressive were Southampton last time out in their EFL Cup Final defeat at Wembley? They totally outplayed the Red Devil’s but finished empty handed. Watford have still lost only four times at home this season and bar their narrow defeat against Stoke each was against an elite opponent. Receiving a quarter of a goal I lean to the home side but with no real conviction.
West Bromwich Albion v Crystal Palace
West Brom -0.25 and 2.25 goals
The Baggies won this fixture 3-2 last season and in the previous two EPL campaigns they scored twice in both games they entertained the Eagles. Those were seasons where they did not even have any attacking threat! There have been at least two goals in seven of the eight total meetings of the sides since November 2013. Those trends make me lean to the over on the goal line but at this price the value in the game is all on the home win as the books are showing them zero respect for this game. West Brom score goals at home this season as it’s now seven games this season they’ve scored at least twice in a game. Home win.
Liverpool v Arsenal
Liverpool -0.5 and 2.75 goals
Over 2.5 goals is on a 5-1 run when the sides meet in EPL action and Liverpool have scored fifteen goals in the last six meetings of the two teams. I am also not convinced they themselves have much hope of keeping a clean sheet against this Arsenal team. Overs would be the call for me if Liverpool had not surrendered so weakly on MNF. I still lean that way but maybe Mr Klopp may think of employing some defensive tactics for this one. But then again………
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton
Tottenham -0.75 and 2.75 goals
Under 2.5 goals is on a 6-1 run when these sides meet and it was one apiece at Goodison Park back in mid-August. Spurs are unbeaten in the last eight meetings of the sides but have notched just three victories in that run. I sense this game may be a tight affair as the Toffees are in some good recent form so I like the away team and definitely the under with the recent meetings taken into consideration.
Sunderland v Manchester City
Manchester City -1.5 and 3.25 goals
City have won five straight EPL meetings of the sides but have won just two of their last seven trips to the Stadium of Light. Last season they won 1-0 and in December 2014 they won 4-1. Prior to that there had been four consecutive 1-0 home wins but can we really see City drawing a blank in this game? Laying a goal and a half away from home is not for the feint hearted and it’s not for me in this game. I’d care to suggest it’s a case of home team and under or away team and over. The decision is yours!
West Ham United v Chelsea
Chelsea -1 and 2.5 goals
West Ham won this fixture 2-1 last season but that was at Upton Park. Chelsea have scored three times in an EPL game against the Hammers just once in the last nine meetings of the teams. This is the kind of game that this big stadium needs to generate an atmosphere and some form of home advantage for the Hammers. Bilic’s men have picked up in recent weeks and on this line of Chelsea -1 it’s definitely home team or pass for me.