Race Day America

Memorial Day triggers a few constants for most of us; time with family, sunshine (for some of the country), unofficial start of pool season, BBQ’s, and most importantly remembering those that have served to protect our freedoms.  It’s also become one of the single greatest sports days for anyone that shares a love of motorsports.  While some of you read this for the first time the Monaco Grand Prix will be wrapping up (or completed) leaving two of the most iconic races on the domestic sports schedule still to go on this holiday weekend.  Grab a cold beverage or cooler’s worth if needed and buckle-up; we have 1,100 miles of racing and plenty of wagers to make. Indianapolis 500 Open wheel racing has become an after thought in this country.  That is except for the fourth Sunday in May where the entire racing world turns hopeful eyes to the 2.5 mile Brickyard, this year for the 100th running of the Indianapolis 500. Sunday’s race is extra special being tabbed by race organizers as a sell out.  While the track doesn’t divulge exact numbers for spectator capacity, the number of grandstand seats is roughly 250,000 with the track selling at least an additional 70,000 infield tickets.  Doesn’t take a math wizard to realize 320,00 tickets to a sporting event is quite the haul making it one of the greatest spectacle in all of sport. Here are the drivers worth watching and a few match-ups worth investing in for the race (Prices courtesy of the Westgate Superbook) Favorites: Scott Dixon 8-1 & Will Power 10-1 Values: Carlos Munoz 12-1 & Tony Kanaan 12-1 Longshots: Graham Rahal 20-1 & Alexander Rossi 25-1 Matchups: Carlos Munoz +100 vs Marco Andretti & Will Power -120 vs Simon Pagenaud Coca...

Indy 500

Memorial Day weekend marks the unofficial start of summer.  With it comes one of the greatest traditions in auto racing; the Indianapolis 500.  I’ll admit I’m not a fan of Indy Cars most weekends spending most of my hours covering the trio of top level NASCAR circuits but there’s just something about the history of open wheel racing at the Brickyard that captures even the casual fan. Drivers completed qualifying over the weekend (no thanks to the weather) meaning we saw oddsmakers forced to shuffle their odds a bit before the big race.  Despite a previous best finish here of 8th back in 2013, Simon Pagenaud moved to co-favorite at 9-2 after a strong week of practice highlighted by a good result on Sunday.  Pagenaud was widely available at 10-1 early last week.  The other driver listed at 9-2 along side the talented frenchman?  None other than 2008 Indy 500 winner Scott Dixon, who also happens the pole sitter for Sunday’s race.  Aside from shuffling at the top, long shot Justin Wilson’s odds to win the race dipped from 100-1 down to 30-1 now that he knows where he’ll be starting on the grid.  However the implied probability of his heading to victory lane with a milk jug only changed minimally from 1% to 3% What you should know about the starting lineup Here’s a complete look at the side by side comparison of current prices post qualifying compared to the opening lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook Driver Post Qualifying Openers Scott Dixon 9-2 6 Simon Pagenaud 9-2 10 Helio Castroneves 6 5 Juan Montoya 7 5 Will Power 5 7 Tony Kanaan 6 6 Marco Andretti 15 10 Ed Carpenter 18 10 Carlos Munoz 20 20 Ryan Hunter-Reay 25 12 Josef Newgarden...

Kobalt 400 Line Report...

March is a HUGE month in Vegas when it comes to sports.  Most fans know about the influx of tourists headed here for the NCAA tourney’s opening weekend but with the addition of 373 conference tournaments (or so it feels like) the hoops energy cranks up even sooner.  However, the real start of the March sports calendar gets into high gear this weekend when NASCAR invades Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Xfinity race on Saturday and the Cup race on Sunday.  The passionate fans arrival isn’t lost on bookmakers who usually try to throw up a few more betting options to accommodate the increased betting handle.  Influx of recreational bettors also creates opportunities for certain sports books to inflate their hold and capitalize on those less conscientious shoppers.  Here’s a look at the opening prices hung at MGM/Mirage compared to the numbers used at Westgate Superbook. Dale Jr fans will be the first to notice that shopping around this weekend will benefit them as much as anyone.  I would include Danica believers on this list because they’ll see massive price disparities but I can’t really condone betting the 10 as a worthwhile investment. Driver LVH MGM/Mirage Harvick 9-2 4 Johnson 6 7 Gordon 7 7 Earnhardt 8 9-2 Keselowski 8 6 Logano 8 6 Kenseth 8 10 Edwards 10 10 Kahne 12 15 Hamlin 15 12 Larson 25 12 Newman 30 30 McMurray 40 20 Stewart 40 20 Bowyer 40 30 Ragan 40 30 Truex 40 50 Vickers 60 75 Menard 60 50 Dillon 100 50 Biffle 100 30 Smith 100 50 Almendinger 200 100 Almirola 200 85 Patrick 300 50 Bayne 300 75 Stenhouse 300 75 Hornish 300 85 Mears 500 85 Field 300 30 Whitt N/A 150 Guaghan N/A 200 Hold...

Daytona 500

Sunday marks the start of the NASCAR season.  Sure we saw the Duels on Thursday and the Shootout last weekend but those are merely warm-ups for the great American race.  For those new to betting NASCAR super speedways (Daytona and Talladega) are damn near impossible to handicap given the plate racing we’ll see.  Typically bettors that thrive on the autos markets play conservatively as a result.  However for entertainment purposes it never hurts to have a few dogs in the fight and we previewed the race with the help of a valuable prop. Here are updated odds for the Daytona 500 courtesy of 5Dimes. It’s interesting to see the shift in prices on the 88, 48, and 20 given their “wins” to start the year. Dale Earnhardt Jr   +675 Jimmie Johnson   +850 Matt Kenseth   +900 Kevin Harvick   +1100 Jeff Gordon   +1100 Kyle Busch   +1350 Denny Hamlin   +1400 Brad Keselowski   +1600 Joey Logano   +1650 Carl Edwards   +1650 Tony Stewart   +1900 Jamie McMurray   +2300 Kurt Busch   +2600 Kyle Larson   +3000 Kasey Kahne   +3000 Clint Bowyer   +3200 Ryan Newman   +4400 Greg Biffle   +4400 Martin Truex Jr   +4400 Ricky Stenhouse   +5500 Aric Almirola   +5500 Ryan Blaney   +5500 Paul Menard   +5500 Trevor Bayne   +5500 Austin Dillon   +6600 Michael Waltrip   +6600 Danica Patrick   +6600 AJ Allmendinger   +8000 Sam Hornish Jr   +8500 David Ragan   +11500 Along with picking the outright winner, here are a few of the prop bets available (courtesy of Westgate Superbook) WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: 1-19              -140 20-98             +120 WINNING CAR NUMBER WILL BE: ODD               +250 EVEN              -300 TOTAL CAUTIONS: OVER         7.5  -110 UNDER        7.5  -110 **(At least 200 laps must be completed for action) WINNING MANUFACTURER: CHEVY             -140 FORD              +500...

Chase at Loudon

The chase heads to New Hampshire for the 2nd leg of the contender phase.  Brad K was absolutely dominant at this track back in July and his current form says we might be able to expect more of the same.  Of course oddsmakers aren’t dumb and there’s a reason he’s an overwhelming chalk at 7-2, creating value on every other driver in the field.  Who are those guys? Watch Let It Ride and find out who might be worth a wager this weekend Click here to watch Complete pre week odds courtesy of Westgate Hotel SYLVANIA 300 NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2014 JIMMIE JOHNSON 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 7-2 KEVIN HARVICK 6 JEFF GORDON 6 DALE EARNHARDT JR 12 JOEY LOGANO 8 KYLE BUSCH 6 MATT KENSETH 12 KASEY KAHNE 20 TONY STEWART 30 KURT BUSCH 25 DENNY HAMLIN 12 KYLE LARSON 25 CARL EDWARDS 40 CLINT BOWYER 25 JAMIE McMURRAY 40 BRIAN VICKERS 60 GREG BIFFLE 60 RYAN NEWMAN 40 PAUL MENARD 100 MARTIN TRUEX JR 200 AUSTIN DILLON 300 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300 ARIC ALMIROLA 200 MARCOS AMBROSE 300 AJ ALLMENDINGER 300 DANICA PATRICK 500 CASEY MEARS 500 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500 FIELD...

Race for the Chase

The regular season is over…the field of 16 is set for the inaugural elimination format in this year’s chase.  Jeff Gordon enters as a slight favorite over defending champion Jimmie Johnson.  Gordon’s odds are a fraction of what was available before the year when he was listed at 15-1 compared to the paltry 7-2 available right now.  In addition to Gordon’s quest to become champion again his closest competition will come from Johnson (4-1), Brad K (5-1), Kevin Harvick 5-1, and Joey Logano (8-1).  Despite being listed at 6-1, I refuse to believe Dale is a viable threat to win the title despite his 3 wins earlier this season (2 came at Pocono).  We covered all of this yesterday on Race Hub…stay tuned all fall as we look to break down each individual race while also seeking value in the new chase format. Click here to watch our brief preview Complete list of updated odds from the Westgate Superbook JIMMIE JOHNSON 4KYLE BUSCH 12MATT KENSETH 12DENNY HAMLIN 18BRAD KESELOWSKI 4KASEY KAHNE 20JEFF GORDON 7-2DALE EARNHARDT JR 7KEVIN HARVICK 5KURT BUSCH 25JOEY LOGANO 8CARL EDWARDS 100GREG BIFFLE 200RYAN NEWMAN 200FIELD 500  ...

Loudon Preview

It’s always a good feeling when you can put the super speedways home to restrictor plate racing in the rearview mirror.  I’m not too big a man to admit handicapping and Daytona or Talladega leaves me grasping for straws after the darts miss their mark. Little to say, getting back to basics at the Magic Mile is always a welcome change.  As we continue to get deeper into the heart of summer racing, a few prominent drivers are still on the prowl for that elusive first win.  Is this the week we see a NASCAR legend finally crack into victory lane? Find out as Danielle Trotta and I give you all the pertinent gambling information as we head to Loudon, New Hampshire. Video: Let It Ride: Loudon NASCAR Odds Complete list of pre-week outright prices courtesy of the LVH JIMMIE JOHNSON 5 KEVIN HARVICK 7 JEFF GORDON 7 BRAD KESELOWSKI 7 DALE EARNHARDT JR 8 JOEY LOGANO 12 KASEY KAHNE 12 KYLE BUSCH 10 MATT KENSETH 12 TONY STEWART 20 KURT BUSCH 25 DENNY HAMLIN 12 KYLE LARSON 30 CARL EDWARDS 30 CLINT BOWYER 15 JAMIE McMURRAY 30 BRIAN VICKERS 25 GREG BIFFLE 50 RYAN NEWMAN 40 PAUL MENARD 100 MARTIN TRUEX JR 60 AUSTIN DILLON 100 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300 ARIC ALMIROLA 200 MARCOS AMBROSE 300 AJ ALLMENDINGER 300 CASEY MEARS 500 DANICA PATRICK 500 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500 FIELD...

Kentucky

The Sprint Cup shifts their attention to the 1.5 mile track in Sparta for the Quaker State 400 this Saturday night.  Widely regarded as one of the roughest on the circuit,  Kentucky Speedway races much differently than the more traditional 1.5 milers in the series.  This will only be the 4th year at this venue meaning there isn’t a huge historical sample size to observe when handicapping the race.  Yet again no surprise as to what 2 drivers open as favorites however all the previous winners could be where the real value lies.  While JGR hasn’t quite figured out their 1.5 mile package this year, could this be the week they breakout?  You’ll have to watch Danielle Trotta and I break it all down. Complete list of odds pre-practice and qualifying courtesy of the LVH JIMMIE JOHNSON 4 KEVIN HARVICK 9-2 JEFF GORDON 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 8 DALE EARNHARDT JR 8 JOEY LOGANO 8 KASEY KAHNE 12 KYLE BUSCH 12 MATT KENSETH 12 TONY STEWART 20 KURT BUSCH 25 DENNY HAMLIN 25 KYLE LARSON 25 CARL EDWARDS 25 CLINT BOWYER 30 JAMIE McMURRAY 40 BRIAN VICKERS 40 GREG BIFFLE 50 RYAN NEWMAN 50 PAUL MENARD 50 MARTIN TRUEX JR 60 AUSTIN DILLON 100 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 300 ARIC ALMIROLA 300 MARCOS AMBROSE 300 AJ ALLMENDINGER 500 CASEY MEARS 500 DANICA PATRICK 300 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 500 FIELD...

Sonoma Preview

Road courses are a different animal when it comes to handicapping NASCAR.  Odds boards get flipped upside down with unfamiliar names  like Marcos Ambrose offering short prices while fan favorites like Dale Jr get listed at 50-1.  We previewed the race yesterday on Race Hub discussing favorites, value plays, and a long shot that could surprise with a trip to victory lane Video: Let It Ride: Sonoma NASCAR Odds Here’s the complete list of outright prices (before qualifying & practice) courtesy of the LVH MARCOS AMBROSE 5 JEFF GORDON 6 KEVIN HARVICK 7 JIMMIE JOHNSON 7 KURT BUSCH 7 TONY STEWART 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 12 JOEY LOGANO 12 KYLE BUSCH 12 KASEY KAHNE 18 CLINT BOWYER 18 JAMIE McMURRAY 30 CARL EDWARDS 35 MARTIN TRUEX JR 35 BRIAN VICKERS 35 AJ ALLMENDINGER 30 GREG BIFFLE 50 DALE EARNHARDT JR 60 DENNY HAMLIN 60 PAUL MENARD 60 RYAN NEWMAN 60 KYLE LARSON 75 MATT KENSETH 75 JUSTIN ALLGAIER 75 AUSTIN DILLON 100 BORIS SAID 100 ARIC ALMIROLA 300 CASEY MEARS 300 DANICA PATRICK 300 DAVID GILLILAND 500 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500 FIELD 100...

FEDEX 400 Opening Lines...

Opening odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook DOVER INT’L SPEEDWAY SUNDAY, JUNE 2, 2013  JIMMIE JOHNSON 5 KYLE BUSCH 5 MATT KENSETH 6 KASEY KAHNE 8 DENNY HAMLIN 8 BRAD KESELOWSKI 12 CARL EDWARDS 12 GREG BIFFLE 15 JEFF GORDON 15 DALE EARNHARDT JR 20 CLINT BOWYER 12 KEVIN HARVICK 15 MARTIN TRUEX JR 15 TONY STEWART 35 JOEY LOGANO 35 MARK MARTIN 50 RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100 KURT BUSCH 20 RYAN NEWMAN 75 JUAN MONTOYA 100 JAMIE McMURRAY 100 PAUL MENARD 100 MARCOS AMBROSE 100 ARIC ALMIROLA 100 JEFF BURTON 200 AUSTIN DILLON 500 DANICA PATRICK 1000 FIELD...

Daytona 500 Betting Primer...

by Pied Piers of NASCAR To bet on NASCAR you have to be a complete degenerate to (not really but my girlfriend believes that only betting the NFL is acceptable) however the Daytona 500 is kind of the exception.  Like the Kentucky Derby or the Super Bowl, the Daytona 500 is a fan favorite and everybody loves to get their ‘picks’ in.  Let this be your guide to help you navigate the world of betting on NASCAR’s greatest spectacle. Like betting any other sport, wise guys look for value. In non-restrictor plate races there are typically 10-15 guys that have the equipment, team, and setup to win at each particular track.  Daytona is a completely different animal since there are 25-30 guys (or girl) who could cross the line first, making it among the toughest races to handicap. How does this translate to gambling?  It means you can bet smaller amounts at higher odds because the racing is so unpredictable.  Instead of betting 3 or 4 guys I recommend playing 6-8 guys that have the ability to win.  This year we will see typical Daytona pack racing for the first 99 percent of the race and not the 2 car tandems that spoiled last year’s edition.  Changes to the car will prevent the 2 car draft for more than a lap without water spewing from radiators. The key in 2012 is to be in that lead pack when lap 198 hits because then its time to find a drafting partner for the last 2 laps.  However, getting into the lead cap requires one major ingredient: a good driver.  I fully expect to see the best of the restrictor plate racers out front and I’d be shocked if any of them are pushing the rookies...