Updated Futures Aug02

Updated Futures

The MLB trade deadline has come and gone with a few contenders making minor moves to bolster their World Series chances.  Surprisingly contenders like the Astros, Red Sox, and Cardinals didn’t do much while the Rangers, Giants, and Indians acquired the kind of personnel capable of putting them over the top.  Here’s what the updated futures look like for two of the major sportsbooks here in Vegas...

2016 World Series Oct26

2016 World Series

We’ve yet to crown a 2015 champion between the Royals and Mets but that didn’t stop the Westgate Superbook looking towards the future.  Unlike the past few years where a handful of teams were bunched in the 6-8 range baseball season appears a bit more wide open for finding some value.  Can you be the first to identify the 2016 longshot? 2016 WORLD SERIES DODGERS 8 METS 10 BLUE JAYS 10 CUBS 10 NATIONALS 10 CARDINALS 12 RANGERS 12 ASTROS 12 PIRATES 12 YANKEES 16 RED SOX 18 ROYALS 18 GIANTS 20 ANGELS 20 TIGERS 20 INDIANS 20 MARINERS 30 RAYS 40 ORIOLES 40 WHITE SOX 40 TWINS 40 REDS 60 A’S 60 PADRES 60 DIAMONDBACKS 60 BREWERS 60 MARLINS 60 BRAVES 100 ROCKIES 150 PHILLIES 300 2016 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT DODGERS 7-2 METS 9-2 CUBS 9-2 NATIONALS 9-2 CARDINALS 6 PIRATES 6 GIANTS 10 REDS 30 PADRES 30 DIAMONDBACKS 30 BREWERS 30 MARLINS 30 BRAVES 50 ROCKIES 75 PHILILES 150 2016 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT BLUE JAYS 9-2 RANGERS 6 ASTROS 6 YANKEES 8 RED SOX 9 ROYALS 9 ANGELS 10 TIGERS 10 INDIANS 10 MARINERS 15 RAYS 20 ORIOLES 20 WHITE SOX 20 TWINS 20 A’S...

Totals Diversion Jun24

Totals Diversion

Betting baseball totals is about lineups.  Betting baseball totals is about identifying favorable weather.  Betting baseball totals is about getting the best of the number and understanding why 7’s and 9’s are such key numbers.  Betting baseball totals is also about knowing who will be behind the dish calling balls and strikes.  Apparently the importance of umpires isn’t lost on major league baseball these days given a disturbing trend a few of my closest industry colleagues and I have noticed.  MLB.com is supposed to be a trusted source of information (theoretically), a website baseball fans can rely on for up to date ACCURATE information about all things major league baseball.  That hasn’t been the case lately given a slew of incorrect umpire listings on the site. Just yesterday there were 3 wrong initial listings.  One game was so egregious that an umpire known to be on an active crew in Game 2 of a series was somehow listed as the home plate umpire in the Giants/Padres series opener 3000 miles away.  Don’t get me wrong; mistakes happen but when you have one job to do this kind of crap would get an intern fired at any normal company unless it’s intentional. Whether these constant mistakes are the byproduct of lazy data clerks doing manual data entry or a bigger push from MLB, I find it hard to believe that it’s mere coincidence the problem persista.  As handicappers we all have routines and tools we come to rely on before making our investments; thankfully trusted sports information sources like Don Best and Sports Options are in the business of being accurate with this kind of information knowing what’s at stake for bettors. A picture is worth a thousands words so behold just one example of...

Futures Update May07

Futures Update

A lot can change in the first month of the major league baseball season…then again a lot can stay the same.  We’ve already witnessed prolonged winning streaks from much maligned franchises in the Mets and Astros while some preseason favorites have struggled to find mid season form.  This is nothing new to a sport more akin to a marathon than a sprint where simply being in the race late in the year is all that matters.  As a result oddsmakers can’t over react to slumping or surging starts but they also don’t want to create liability in their future books for teams that might not fizzle as the temperatures rise.  Here’s a complete look at the future board’s biggest movers from late March All Prices courtesy of Westgate Superbook 4-May Pre Season Change Dodgers 5 6 -1 Royals 7 25 -18 Nationals 7 5 2 Tigers 10 18 -8 Cardinals 10 10 0 Mets 14 30 -16 Padres 14 20 -6 Cubs 14 16 -2 Yankees 16 25 -9 Red Sox 16 12 4 Astros 18 60 -42 A’s 25 20 5 Pirates 25 20 5 Orioles 25 18 7 Mariners 25 14 11 Angels 25 12 13 Rays 30 50 -20 Blue Jays 30 30 0 Giants 30 20 10 Indians 30 20 10 Marlins 40 30 10 White Sox 60 20 40 Rockies 80 60 20 Braves 100 100 0 Twins 100 100 0 Reds 100 60 40 Brewers 200 60 140 Diamondbacks 300 100 200 Rangers 500 60 440 Phillies 1000 500...

Pitching Value Apr02

Pitching Value

Special thanks again to Gil Alexander for allowing us here to share his trio of MLB podcasts to get readers ready for the season.  Today’s final installment breaks down pitching value, something near and dear to any fantasy owner or sports bettor’s heart during April bases....

Win Totals Apr01

Win Totals

Another great podcast installment from Gil Alexander (follow him on twitter @beatingthebook) to get you ready for the major league baseball season.  His guest? Joe Peta of Trading Bases fame provides the cluster luck-based reasoning behind his favorite MLB season win totals picks for 2015.  Listen in, there are few better tandems breaking down value in the win totals market than these guys. Win Totals not your thing? Here’s an extensive list of player props from...

MLB Preview (1) Mar31

MLB Preview (1)

Special thanks to Gil Alexander of Beating the Book fame who has allowed us to circulate his MLB podcasts on these pages in anticipation of Opening Day.  Stay tuned over the next few days as we’ll redistribute some of his great content. This episode includes Jonah Keri, Grantland.com, on 2015 MLB Season Win Totals & Paul Sporer, FanGraphs, on Fantasy Baseball Overvalued/Undervalued Position Players Covering all things baseball for Grantland.com, Jonah Keri drops in on Host Gill Alexander for his annual March podcast appearance and offers up his thinking on his top four MLB season win total plays for 2015.  Then, Paul Sporer of FanGraphs and PaintTheBlack.com highlights the most overvalued and undervalued position players you should be aware of in your upcoming baseball fantasy draft Check out all these props for the regular...

Player Propalooza Mar31

Player Propalooza

The start of baseball is just a few short days away and Bovada wants to make sure you have an appropriate action fix.  Listed below are more than 500 player props (broken down by player and team) to whet the wagering whistle.  All of the bets have low counter limits but for the recreational bettor in all of us there’s no reason to scoff at the opportunity to grind out a few points on the batting average in late September to cash a ticket.  Keep in mind the stipulations on all of these state the player just needs to make the parent club out of camp meaning there’s a ton of value on unders, especially with injury prone talents.   Mike Trout – Total HR’s in the 2015 Regular Season      Over/Under                               32½   Mike Trout – Total Hits in the 2015 Regular Season       Over/Under                               180½   Mike Trout – Total Stolen Bases in the 2015 Regular Season    Over/Under                               25½   Mike Trout – Total RBI’s in the 2015 Regular Season     Over/Under                               101½   Mike Trout – Total Runs in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under                               115½   Mike Trout – BA in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under                               .309   Miguel Cabrera – BA in the 2015 Regular Season          Over/Under                               .315   Miguel Cabrera – Total HR’s in the 2015 Regular Season           Over/Under                               30½   Miguel Cabrera – Total RBI’s in the 2015 Regular Season          Over/Under                               110½   Miguel Cabrera – Total Runs in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under                               100½   Giancarlo Stanton – Total BA in the 2015 Regular Season         Over/Under                               .285   Giancarlo Stanton – Total HR’s in the 2015 Regular Season Over/Under                               37½   Giancarlo Stanton – Total Runs in the 2015 Regular Season     Over/Under                               95½   Giancarlo Stanton –...

MLB Win Totals Feb16

MLB Win Totals

We’re still weeks away from the first pitch of Major League Baseball 2015 but that doesn’t stop sports book operators from hanging regular season win totals before teams even get to camp.  Credit to Atlantis in Reno for being the first again this year to post their numbers before any other casino in Nevada. Westgate followed suit this weekend opening their numbers on Sunday afternoon.  Keep in mind when looking over win totals either for investment opportunities or merely as a casual fan understand they’re better indicators of oddsmaker’s true expectations than futures prices.  The Cubs provide one of the most compelling examples for this market trend given they’re as high as 6th in some future pools yet only predicted to finish right around .500.  Many know my thoughts on the north siders but I won’t go quite as far to say this season could be as underwhelming for them as 2 years ago proved to be for the Bluejays amid lofty expectations. Team LVH Bovada Diamondbacks 71.5 71.5 Braves 74.5 73.5 Orioles 81.5 82.5 Red Sox 84.5 86.5 Cubs 82.5 82.5 White Sox 82 81.5 Reds 78 77.5 Indians 84.5 83.5 Rockies 71.5 71.5 Tigers 83.5 84.5 Marlins 81.5 81.5 Astros 75.5 74.5 Royals 79.5 79.5 Angels 88.5 89.5 Dodgers 93.5 92.5 Brewers 78.5 78.5 Twins 72.5 70.5 Mets 82 81.5 Yankees 81.5 81.5 A’s 80.5 80.5 Phillies 68.5 68.5 Pirates 83.5 83.5 Padres 84.5 85.5 Giants 83.5 84.5 Mariners 87.5 86.5 Cardinals 88 88.5 Rays 80 78.5 Rangers 79.5 77.5 Blue Jays 82.5 82.5 Nationals 94...

Updated Odds Sep29

Updated Odds

…and then there were 10.  The field for the fall classic is set as 10 teams will begin their quest to take home the world series.  Pittsburgh and Kansas City have been pleasant surprises this year; Pirates proving last season was no fluke and KC finally getting into the mix after a lengthy hiatus.  Of course first things first for our 4 wild card teams; Kansas City will host Oakland with James Shields opposing Jon Lester ( KC -125, 6.5) while the pitching match-up we’ll see at PNC still remains a mystery.  Regardless, here’s your complete list of updated futures courtesy of the Westgate Superbook. 2014 WORLD SERIES DODGERS 9-2 TIGERS 9-2 NATIONALS 9-2 CARDINALS 8 ANGELS 5 A’S 12 GIANTS 14 PIRATES 14 ORIOLES 7 ROYALS 16 2014 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT DODGERS 9-5 NATIONALS 9-5 CARDINALS 7-2 GIANTS 7 PIRATES 7 2014 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT TIGERS 9-5 ANGELS 2 A’S 6 ORIOLES 13-4 ROYALS...

American Uncertainty Aug25

American Uncertainty

It happens every summer…teams the experts never gave a chance to win the World Series force their way into the fall classic discussion.  This season’s been even more unique with 2 franchises without devoid of recent post season success in firm control of their own post season destiny.  As of this morning Kansas City was actually listed as a slight favorite to win the AL Central at 5Dimes and ESPN’s playoff probability indicator gave Seattle nearly a 75% chance of getting into the postseason.  What the casual fan fails to realize with both of these clubs is the consistency of their respective pitching staff’s. The emergence of Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura to slot behind ace James Shields goes a very long way while Seattle has taken run prevention to historic lows behind their tandem of aces.  The other constant between the two teams? Bullpens that nail games down in the late innings.  Future odds indicate how improbable the crazy roller coaster ride for Seattle over the last month.  Little to say the Tigers misfortune has worked to their benefit.   Royals Mariners 21-Oct 30 60 6-Jan 30 25 24-Mar 30 50 12-May 40 40 23-Jun 20 40 14-Jul 40 25 4-Aug 40 50 11-Aug 20 30 18-Aug 12 18 25-Aug 10 18...

MLB Futures Jul07

MLB Futures

The trade deadline is still weeks away but that didn’t stop Oakland from making the first major move towards bolstering their roster this past weekend.  No, I won’t count the pitching swap between the Yankees and Dbacks as having major implications in the pennant chase.   There’s still a ton of value to be found on the big board as we inch closer to the allstar break. Maybe it comes in the form of the NL Central’s unheralded sides in Cincinnati or Pittsburgh or how about the Rays having something to say about who wins the quagmire that’s become the AL East mess…assuming they don’t deal David Price?  Here’s the list of full updated odds not only for the World Series but also the AL & NL pennant courtesy of the LVH as of this morning. 2014 WORLD SERIES DODGERS 9-2TIGERS 9-2NATIONALS 10CARDINALS 12RED SOX 50ANGELS 10REDS 30YANKEES 25RANGERS 200A’S 4BRAVES 12RAYS 50GIANTS 15INDIANS 50PIRATES 40PHILLIES 500ORIOLES 16ROYALS 40BLUE JAYS 35PADRES 500DIAMONDBACKS 1000BREWERS 12MARINERS 20ROCKIES 500CUBS 1000WHITE SOX 500METS 300MARLINS 200TWINS 1000ASTROS 50002014 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT DODGERS 9-5NATIONALS 7-2CARDINALS 5REDS 15BRAVES 5GIANTS 7PIRATES 20PHILLIES 250PADRES 250DIAMONDBACKS 500BREWERS 5ROCKIES 250CUBS 500METS 150MARLINS 1002014 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT TIGERS 9-4RED SOX 25ANGELS 5YANKEES 12RANGERS 100A’S 9-5RAYS 25INDIANS 25ORIOLES 8ROYALS 20BLUE JAYS 17MARINERS 10WHITE SOX 250TWINS 500ASTROS 2500...