MLB Futures Jul07

MLB Futures

The trade deadline is still weeks away but that didn’t stop Oakland from making the first major move towards bolstering their roster this past weekend.  No, I won’t count the pitching swap between the Yankees and Dbacks as having major implications in the pennant chase.   There’s still a ton of value to be found on the big board as we inch closer to the allstar break. Maybe it comes in the form of the NL Central’s unheralded sides in Cincinnati or Pittsburgh or how about the Rays having something to say about who wins the quagmire that’s become the AL East mess…assuming they don’t deal David Price?  Here’s the list of full updated odds not only for the World Series but also the AL & NL pennant courtesy of the LVH as of this morning. 2014 WORLD SERIES DODGERS 9-2TIGERS 9-2NATIONALS 10CARDINALS 12RED SOX 50ANGELS 10REDS 30YANKEES 25RANGERS 200A’S 4BRAVES 12RAYS 50GIANTS 15INDIANS 50PIRATES 40PHILLIES 500ORIOLES 16ROYALS 40BLUE JAYS 35PADRES 500DIAMONDBACKS 1000BREWERS 12MARINERS 20ROCKIES 500CUBS 1000WHITE SOX 500METS 300MARLINS 200TWINS 1000ASTROS 50002014 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT DODGERS 9-5NATIONALS 7-2CARDINALS 5REDS 15BRAVES 5GIANTS 7PIRATES 20PHILLIES 250PADRES 250DIAMONDBACKS 500BREWERS 5ROCKIES 250CUBS 500METS 150MARLINS 1002014 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT TIGERS 9-4RED SOX 25ANGELS 5YANKEES 12RANGERS 100A’S 9-5RAYS 25INDIANS 25ORIOLES 8ROYALS 20BLUE JAYS 17MARINERS 10WHITE SOX 250TWINS 500ASTROS 2500...

Firing Squad Apr01

Firing Squad

We’re all of 1 day into the regular season (or maybe 9 I’m not really sure) but you get the general gist.  There will obviously be skippers who don’t make it to the allstar break and what better way to speculate on that then with a few of your hard earned dollars.  Here’s Bovada’s odds on manager to be fired first in 2014 SPECIAL – Who will be the first Manager fired during the 2014 Regular Season?     John Gibbons                                       2/1 Kirk Gibson                                           5/2 Ned Yost                                              5/1 Terry Collins                                          5/1 Bo Porter                                              7/1 Mike Scioscia                                      ...

MLB Reg Season Wins Mar06

MLB Reg Season Wins

Baseball’s opening day is less than a month away and if you haven’t been studying win totals well it’s time to start.  Remember when handicapping these numbers books often inflate prices knowing the casual gambler gravitates towards the over.  Always important to keep in mind things have to go right for a team to exceed expectations while unders cash when the train slides off the tracks. Here are the updated prices courtesy of the LVH DIAMONDBACKS 80.5 BRAVES 88 ORIOLES 80 RED SOX 87.5 CUBS 68.5 WHITE SOX 75.5 REDS 84 INDIANS 80.5 ROCKIES 75.5 TIGERS 90 MARLINS 69.5 ASTROS 63 ROYALS 81.5 ANGELS 88 DODGERS 93.5 BREWERS 79.5 TWINS 70.5 METS 73.5 YANKEES 87 A’S 89 PHILLIES 76 PIRATES 84.5 PADRES 79 GIANTS 85.5 MARINERS 80.5 CARDINALS 91.5 RAYS 87.5 RANGERS 87 BLUE JAYS 79.5 NATIONALS 89 **TEAMS MUST PLAY AT LEAST 160 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION** **NO...

Betting the Bigs Feb19

Betting the Bigs

Baseball season is only a few short weeks away but that doesn’t mean props haven’t hit the shelves in sportsbooks.  Plenty of options exist for wagering on America”s past time including win totals, division odds, futures, and the more extensive offering contained here within via the LVH.  The most interesting angle with the individual player props is a big leaguer is only required to play 1 game for bets to have action.  While it sounds terrible to say my suggestion is attack this list with the eye on a guy who may be prone to DL stints or nursing a lingering injury before the season starts (see Chris Carpenter last year). MOST HOME RUNS BY: ANY PLAYER OVER       44.5  -110 UNDER      44.5  -110 MOST RBI’S BY: ANY PLAYER OVER      132.5  -110 UNDER     132.5  -110 MOST RUNS BY: ANY PLAYER OVER      123.5  -110 UNDER     123.5  -110 MOST HITS BY: ANY PLAYER OVER      209.5  -110 UNDER     209.5  -110 MOST STOLEN BASES BY: ANY PLAYER OVER       58.5  -110 UNDER      58.5  -110 MOST DOUBLES BY: ANY PLAYER OVER       51.5  -110 UNDER      51.5  -110 MOST TRIPLES BY: ANY PLAYER OVER       13.0  -110 UNDER      13.0  -110 MOST WINS BY: ANY PITCHER OVER       21.0  -130 UNDER      21.0  +110 MOST LOSSES BY: ANY PITCHER OVER       17.0  -110 UNDER      17.0  -110 MOST SAVES BY: ANY PITCHER OVER       49.5  -110 UNDER      49.5  -110 MOST STRIKEOUTS THROWN BY: ANY PITCHER OVER      249.5  -110 UNDER     249.5  -110 MOST COMPLETE GAMES BY: ANY PITCHER OVER        6.5  -110 UNDER       6.5  -110 TOTAL 2014 REGULAR SEASON HITS BY: MATT CARPENTER (STL) OVER      169.5  -110 UNDER     169.5  -110 TOTAL 2014 REGULAR SEASON HITS BY: MIKE TROUT (LAA) OVER      172.5  -110 UNDER     172.5  -110 TOTAL 2014 REGULAR SEASON HITS BY: ADAM JONES (BAL) OVER      164.5  -110 UNDER     164.5  -110 TOTAL 2014...

2014 World Series Odds Oct22

2014 World Series Odds...

All odds courtesy of the LVH 2014 WORLD SERIES DODGERS 5 TIGERS 8 NATIONALS 8 CARDINALS 10 RED SOX 12 ANGELS 14 REDS 14 YANKEES 16 RANGERS 14 A’S 14 BRAVES 16 RAYS 18 GIANTS 20 INDIANS 25 PIRATES 25 PHILLIES 40 ORIOLES 25 ROYALS 30 BLUE JAYS 40 PADRES 60 DIAMONDBACKS 40 BREWERS 60 MARINERS 60 ROCKIES 60 CUBS 50 WHITE SOX 40 METS 100 MARLINS 100 TWINS 100 ASTROS 200 2014 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT DODGERS 11-5 NATIONALS 7-2 CARDINALS 5 REDS 7 BRAVES 8 GIANTS 9 PIRATES 12 PHILLIES 20 PADRES 30 DIAMONDBACKS 20 BREWERS 30 ROCKIES 30 CUBS 25 METS 50 MARLINS 50 2014 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT TIGERS 7-2 RED SOX 11-2 ANGELS 13-2 YANKEES 8 RANGERS 13-2 A’S 13-2 RAYS 8 INDIANS 11 ORIOLES 11 ROYALS 14 BLUE JAYS 20 MARINERS 30 WHITE SOX 20 TWINS 50 ASTROS...

Race to the finish Jul25

Race to the finish

For many, spring is the peak of optimism. It seems that each MLB season there are a few teams set to light the MLB on fire but when the season gets rolling fail to meet these lofty expectations – much is the case for fans of teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants. On the flip side, there are always a few teams that coming roaring out of the gates and take the whole league by surprise – we’re looking at you Pirates fans. We decided to look at pre-season win totals from LVH Superbook to gauge how teams have so far faired against expectations and what they need to do over the remaining games to meet these expectations. Click here for full article Todd’s Take: This is an excellent piece to give perspective on which regular season wins ticket holders should be pressing the panic button or flying high right about now.  Win totals are an increasing part of business for sportsbooks across all sports with baseball remaining third on the food chain behind both football varieties.  I think every bettor needs to think of the opportunity cost associated with tying up their funds for better than 6 mos on an even money proposition (credit players, well you’re a different breed). They’re a great way for the casual fan to keep interest but for those looking to turn over their money faster, it’s a delicate balancing act.  Return on investment should always factor into the equation when it comes to making long term decisions and only you know what ends up being best for your...

Video: ASG Preview Jul16

Video: ASG Preview

There are no secrets for handicapping the All Star Game but that didn’t stop Kenny White and I from getting you prepared for it. My picks on the game? Strong leans to both the National League and the over if you’re betting the mid-summer...

World Series Futures Jun18

World Series Futures

Future Odds Courtesy of the LVH (current as of 6/17) 2013 WORLD SERIES ANGELS 30 NATIONALS 20 YANKEES 15 DODGERS 30 RANGERS 13 TIGERS 6 RAYS 20 BRAVES 7 PHILLIES 50 GIANTS 12 CARDINALS 7 REDS 10 A’S 8 WHITE SOX 100 BREWERS 200 DIAMONDBACKS 15 BLUE JAYS 100 ORIOLES 15 RED SOX 12 METS 300 PIRATES 25 ROYALS 50 CUBS 200 PADRES 40 MARLINS 5000 MARINERS 100 INDIANS 50 TWINS 100 ROCKIES 50 ASTROS 5000 2013 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT NATIONALS 10 DODGERS 15 BRAVES 3 PHILLIES 25 GIANTS 6 CARDINALS 3 REDS 9-2 BREWERS 90 DIAMONDBACKS 7 METS 125 PIRATES 12 CUBS 90 PADRES 20 MARLINS 2000 ROCKIES 25 2013 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT ANGELS 15 YANKEES 7 RANGERS 13-2 TIGERS 5-2 RAYS 10 A’S 4 WHITE SOX 50 BLUE JAYS 50 ORIOLES 7 RED SOX 5 ROYALS 25 MARINERS 50 INDIANS 25 TWINS 50 ASTROS...

Attacking the Runline Jun15

Attacking the Runline...

I won’t call the runline the most misunderstood bet in sports but it’s definitely a betting option that causes quite a bit of confusion among inexperienced baseball bettors. I’ll assume everyone reading this post already knows what I mean when I say runline however in the case that’s not true, the most concise definition is that the runline is baseball’s version of the point spread (-1.5/+1.5) with juice attached to both sides. When do people bet the line… The runline is most commonly bet -1.5 when a team enters the prohibitive favorite range north of -200.  Bettors see this as a cheap alternative to back the best pitchers in the game at a price that won’t completely obliterate their bankroll after one loss.  There’s one problem with this mentality for a casual bettor; the perceived “value” is actually derived from a mathematical formula connecting moneyline to total so while the price looks cheap, bettors aren’t stealing from books.  Oddsmakers know exactly what the price should be and there’s a reason to open the market at a certain price point every time for a -250 home favorite in a game with a posted total of 6.5.  However, it is up to the bettor to understand when opportunity exists to take advantage of this position and maximize a wagering opportunity based on his/her handicapping acumen. Math isn’t on the home favorite’s side… Let me be one of the first to tell you (if you haven’t heard it already) laying runs with the home team becomes a more dangerous proposition than backing the road team. As it stands, you already only get 9 at bats and if you’re expecting the home side to win by 2+ you will most likely only get 8 plate appearances (11% less)...

Martingale This Jun04

Martingale This

We hear about different shortcut approaches for betting baseball all the time. The one that gets mentioned frequently is the Martingale System. To employ this tactic the goal is simple; double up your bets for as long as it takes to make one unit.  This clearly seemed like a no brainer if you just faded the much maligned Astros most of this season because they’ve been incapable of stringing together wins.  Well, well, well let’s hope there aren’t bettors who chose to utilize this betting strategy the last 6 games because the results would not be pretty. I’m pretty sure a small business loan might not suffice to pay off the potential carnage. (data provided by @ClarkRowe)  Team Price Risk Win Loss Net @ LAA -270 $270 $100 ($270) ($270) @ LAA -260 $973 $370 ($973) ($1,243) @ LAA -270 $3,626 $1,343 ($3,626) ($4,869) @ LAA -265 $13,168 $4,969 ($13,168) ($18,037) @ Rockies -290 $52,597 $18,137 ($52,597) ($70,634) @ Rockies -190 $134,395 $70,734 ($134,395)...

Value on the Bump Jun01

Value on the Bump

It happens every summer; pitchers burst onto the scene and catch bookmakers by surprise. Unlike other sports where adjustments can be made overnight, the value created for baseball bettors from a no name starter can sustain value for extended stretches. However, a third of the way into the season there are very few unknowns meaning books are onto those hot arms (and the cold ones). The name of the game in every sport is knowing how long to ride a team right before the price becomes prohibitive and there’s no greater example than starting pitchers in MLB.  With the calendar hitting June, here are my guys to watch from an overvalued and undervalued standpoint from now into the Allstar break. OVERVALUED: Patrick Corbin: I hated putting him on this list because I’m a big believer in this mini-Kershaw’s raw talent. However when your team is 10-0 in your starts yielding over 1 unit per start on average for bettors, you’re bound to regress and start costing your backers money.  We saw some of that in his last start against the Padres where Corbin finally looked human. I don’t think you’ll get rich betting against him for the long term but for the next 5 weeks expect him to be grossly overvalued. Pirates Arms (Rodriguez, Locke, Gomez): This is as much a reaction to the team as a whole as it is to the three guys named here. The Pirates are typically undervalued by books every night and these three pitchers have benefited at least as far as bettors are concerned. None of this trio has true ace stuff like AJ Burnett and it’s kept their price down early in the year. Simple reality, what goes up must come down and these arms aren’t the...

Best postgame interview ever? May27

Best postgame interview ever?...

As far as I’m concerned, the pie in the face after MLB walkoff is getting old. However, this postgame interview with Munenori Kawasaki after his game winning base hit against the Orioles on Sunday takes things to a whole new...