By Matt L’Heureux Follow him on twitter @EL_Apostrophe We’ve all been there before: the dreaded sports loss decided by a half-point. Included in these gut wrenching losses are cases where an underdog misses the cover in overtime when a single point in regulation – one way or another – would have prevented the extra period. It’s brutal, but more importantly, it leaves a lasting memory ingrained in our gambling psyche. There is no league where a loss by the hook is more excruciating than professional basketball. It’s a sport where teams score approximately one point per possession and possess the ball nearly 100 times per game. Without breaking a sweat, you can recall a dozen shots that rattled out (or in), questionable foul calls, and a toe on the line negating a three point shot. The phrase “game of inches” comes to mind. By now you are nodding in agreement spouting out half-point NBA losses like they were bad beats at the poker table. (Translation: No one wants to hear about them) But how often does it really happen? Some argue that the NBA side market is too efficient to beat but I just think that the memories of losing basketball plays last longer and negatively alter our perception of reality. For example, there have been 467 games played in the 2011-2012 NBA season through February 19. When comparing the final score to the prevailing closing line, 14 were decided by exactly a half-point. In fact, the average discrepancy between final score and closing line is a whopping 9.35 points through nearly two months in this lockout shortened season. This is roughly in line with what we’ve seen over recent years in the NBA, and guess what, it will continue to be around this...

Rivalries are what makes college sports part of the fabric of American society.  With continued expansion and conference realignment, many of these longstanding traditions will be forever changed.  In last week’s twitter poll, college sports fans responded in droves and while there were a few historic matchups you won’t see included, know “other” exclusion was only because they represented less than 2% of the total.  As always, thanks to those who shared their vote....

By James Kempton Follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro Martin O’Neill has engineered an amazing turnaround at the Stadium of Light since he took over as manager of Sunderland in early December. For those not familiar with O’Neill, he is a master of maximizing the production out of his players. His managerial resume is extremely impressive as he has led his clubs to continually overachieve and I expect him to turn Sunderland into a consistent top half finisher in the coming years. Before O’Neill took the reigns, Sunderland had won 2 , drawn 5, and lost 7 of their Premier League games.  Upon him taking over I expected an immediate response from the players as that is what O’Neill demands and gets from his teams. The response has been incredible with the team winning seven, drawing one, and losing three of their EPL games following his appointment. The 3 losses were to Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham who all reside in the top 6 of the table. They have picked up 22 points under O’Neill compared to only 11 before he arrived or to put it another way, they average exactly 2 pts per game now compared to 0.78 pts per game earlier in the season. These stats alone could prove very valuable over the next month or so for us bettors as market prices should over adjust in certain games. I do not believe that Sunderland is either as bad as their performances at the beginning of the season nor as good as they have been under O’Neill. If pushed towards one or the other for true impression of the team I sense they are more aligned to the performance in their first 14 games though and that is why I sense there will be...

Click here to listen Linsanity, Murray State’s tournament prospects, and the dating life of a bookmaker all included in this week’s edition of behind the bets podcast hosted by Chad Millman

Click here to listen Handicapping the 5 day trip to Nashville, UT hoops, and way too early college football lines for big games in 2012

  For anyone not familiar with the Haka, you haven’t seen one the most intense pre-game traditions in all of...

Every sportsbook operates with a different philosophy all aimed at achieving one primary objective: turning a profit.  Whether it’s a square shop like Bovada marketed to the recreational gambler or a sharp operation like Pinnacle booking to the professionals, the key is understanding the appropriate product mix for your clientele and responding appropriately to their bets.  There are pros and cons for every bookmaking approach and it all hinges on management’s tolerance for liability, exposure, and limits.  Below is an interview with senior trader John T of Pinnacle who explains his operations’ strategy and why his shop is so successful booking limits to the world’s best...

Here are the statewide figures for the last 22 years of Superbowl data.  Each chart is sorted and filtered from high to low in regards to handle, win, and of course hold %.   Year Handle Win Hold 2006 94,534,372 8,828,432 9.34% 2012 93,899,840 5,064,470 5.39% 2007 93,067,358 12,930,175 13.89% 2008 92,055,833 -2,573,103 -2.80% 2005 90,759,236 15,430,138 17.00% 2011 87,491,098 724,176 0.83% 2010 82,726,367 6,857,101 8.29% 2009 81,514,748 6,678,044 8.19% 2004 81,242,191 12,440,698 15.31% 1998 77,253,246 472,033 0.61% 1999 75,986,520 2,906,601 3.83% 2003 71,693,032 5,264,963 7.34% 2002 71,513,304 2,331,607 3.26% 2000 71,046,751 4,237,978 5.97% 1996 70,907,801 7,126,145 10.05% 1997 70,853,211 2,265,701 3.20% 1995 69,591,818 -396,674 -0.57% 2001 67,661,425 11,002,636 16.26% 1993 56,811,405 7,174,869 12.63% 1994 54,483,221 7,481,541 13.73% 1992 50,334,277 301,280 0.60% 1991 40,080,409 3,512,241 8.76% Year Handle Win Hold 2005 90,759,236 15,430,138 17.00% 2007 93,067,358 12,930,175 13.89% 2004 81,242,191 12,440,698 15.31% 2001 67,661,425 11,002,636 16.26% 2006 94,534,372 8,828,432 9.34% 1994 54,483,221 7,481,541 13.73% 1993 56,811,405 7,174,869 12.63% 1996 70,907,801 7,126,145 10.05% 2010 82,726,367 6,857,101 8.29% 2009 81,514,748 6,678,044 8.19% 2003 71,693,032 5,264,963 7.34% 2012 93,899,840 5,064,470 5.39% 2000 71,046,751 4,237,978 5.97% 1991 40,080,409 3,512,241 8.76% 1999 75,986,520 2,906,601 3.83% 2002 71,513,304 2,331,607 3.26% 1997 70,853,211 2,265,701 3.20% 2011 87,491,098 724,176 0.83% 1998 77,253,246 472,033 0.61% 1992 50,334,277 301,280 0.60% 1995 69,591,818 -396,674 -0.57% 2008 92,055,833 -2,573,103 -2.80% Year Handle Win Hold 2005 90,759,236 15,430,138 17.00% 2001 67,661,425 11,002,636 16.26% 2004 81,242,191 12,440,698 15.31% 2007 93,067,358 12,930,175 13.89% 1994 54,483,221 7,481,541 13.73% 1993 56,811,405 7,174,869 12.63% 1996 70,907,801 7,126,145 10.05% 2006 94,534,372 8,828,432 9.34% 1991 40,080,409 3,512,241 8.76% 2010 82,726,367 6,857,101 8.29% 2009 81,514,748 6,678,044 8.19% 2003 71,693,032 5,264,963 7.34% 2000 71,046,751 4,237,978 5.97% 2012 93,899,840 5,064,470 5.39% 1999 75,986,520 2,906,601 3.83% 2002 71,513,304 2,331,607 3.26% 1997 70,853,211 2,265,701 3.20% 2011 87,491,098 724,176 0.83%...

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by Rob Perez (Follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob ) BUY BOSTON CELTICS 11-10 team record, 11-10-0 ATS Old, wrinkly, and well past their prime. Ladies and gentleman, your 2012 Boston Celtics. This team struggles to score points, seems to be on another planet at times, and barely mustered a split from the lowly Cavaliers this week. Mediocre ATS record, mediocre SU record but like any good investor I see opportunity … no better time to buy this veteran gang than right now … LOW. Why? Despite all of their flaws, Boston is one of three veteran teams (Boston, San Antonio, LA Lakers) you can trust to win when it matters. Even though we are only 21 games into their NBA campaign, this is a pivotal time for teams to separate from the rest of the pack. If you are able to create some breathing room in the conference standings now you get the luxury of resting before the playoffs. Of all teams, the Celtics know/need this most. Right around this time last year, the Celtics put together two modest winning streaks and rolled off 8 of 11. They built a nice little cushion and went into, “we’re ok with 3rd place in the East” mode, where all of their regular season value evaporated into thin air. IF they are able to string a winning streak together now, they know they can coast through the back end of the regular season into the playoffs. They are relatively healthy, sans Rondo’s wrist injury, and if you ever wanted to bet on the Celtics … NOW is the time. NOT when they win 8 of their next 10. LA CLIPPERS 13-7 team record, 11-8-1 ATS Despite their popularity amongst the public, great overall record, and being anointed...

by Bruce Friedman (follow him on twitter @notthefakebruce) BUY: Baylor (2-4 @Oklahoma State, 2-8 Kansas) Just the team Baylor needs to see at this point to right their ATS ship.  They absolutely destroyed the Pokes in their first meeting in Waco 106-65!!  Now, I don’t expect that kind of a drubbing in Stillwater but I do expect a road cover.  OSU has played pretty well lately while Baylor has burned their ATS backers yet this is a match-up they can exploit and could be undervalued.  After the OSU game,  Baylor has a home revenge date looming with KU who took the Bears to the woodshed in the first meeting.  Look for this game to be hotly contested but I feel Baylor will pull away behind the strength of their home crowd Missouri (2-4 Kansas, 2-6 @Oklahoma) I wont go as far as calling Missouri Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to home/road splits but they’re getting close.  Missouri needed every ounce of energy to dispose of Texas Monday while KU easily clipped OU for the 2nd time this year.  However, things are about to get a lot tougher for Bill Self’s crew this week as they get into the heart of their Big XII schedule.  Missouri knows they need to show the nation they are one of the top teams and that 75% of their body of work wasnt a fluke and I believe they’ll prove it with a comfortable win over Kansas.  The Tigers then head to Norman for a date with OU where they’ll be installed as road favs.  Look for the momentum from a win over KU to propel them through this game as Mizzou makes a push towards the Big XII title. SELL: Kentucky (2-4 @South Carolina, 2-7 Florida) Well...