Click here to listen Breaking down the NHL and NBA playoff picture along with discussions of what the slow season for sports betting means to us in Vegas

  Hedging Sports Wagers, The GambLou perspective (for more great sports info follow him on twitter @Gamblou ) As discussed plenty in earlier GambLou blogs, we hold a substantial future ticket on the Kings to win the West which has now left us multiple options for profit. We purchase future tickets not necessarily with the intentions of actually cashing them, but rather to give ourselves a chance to lock in a playoff profit in some way, shape, or form. Let’s review our potential options if we’re sitting on a Kings ticket from the beginning of the postseason: Scenario 1: We hold our longshot ticket at 11-1 and allow the Kings to finish their work, win the conference, and move to the Stanley Cup Finals. Pretty straight forward with dynamic profit potential but also full of risk given our initial wager amount. Scenario 2: Hedge the future wager to insure bottom line profit and eliminate risk altogether. So (the standard $100.00 dollar example) we take the Yote’s in the series to win half of what our future ticket would pay risking $400 to win $600 . If the Yote’s win the series, we bottom line profit $500.00. If the Kings win at the original $100.00 wager for example, the gross win is $1,100.00 with a net profit of $700.00. Uncle Louie’s single point of focus is “Profitable Sports Gaming” not ‘all or nothing wagering’! While many would look at the Kings recent puck prowess and decide to ride the wager, we wouldn’t think of it nor should the seasoned sports investor. We have an opportunity to take a no risk profit of either 5 units or 7 units (we still profit more if the Kings win) in this particular scenario. We are business people here and have...

Contributed by JEFF WILLIAMS (follow him on twitter @SLIMrosco) Even though the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS struggled heading into Arizona, I really like the way this team is playing.  Over the weekend they lost 2 of 3 to a suddenly hot Astros team but rebounded last night with a solid offensive showing posting a 9-6 win.  Chase Field is known for producing runs when the spring/summer temperatures rise, and one thing you will learn about me, I LOVE to play games ‘OVER’ the total (insert square jokes here).  As a result, this series appears to be right in my wheel house as an offense lover’s dream.  Entering last night, a couple Cardinal players were really stroking the ball over their past 6; Furcal .417 with 10 hits and 7 runs scored, Jay 9 hits and a .409 average, Holliday 6 runs batted in and a .391 average, and Beltran .353 with 2 home runs and 8 runs batted in.  Last night they didn’t disappoint as Furcal, Holliday, and Beltran all went yard and combined to go 5-13 with 4 RBI’s and 3 runs scored. The Diamondbacks started their recent road trip off hot, but lost 5 of their last 6 games.  Battling some injuries and players not playing up to their full potential, the D-Backs are being overvalued right now especially in their own building and I believe you’ll have opportunity to “buy” the Cards at a reasonable price all series. OTHER TEAM ON MY RADAR: L.A. ANGELS Yes, we all know Pujols has finally hit his first home run on Sunday.  Big freakin deal.  What I think is the bigger story here, is that this team gets to head to Minnesota and play the Twins for three games for the 2nd time this year!...

Courtesy of Peej the Professor (follow him on twitter @Peej___) Whether it’s totals or picking straight up winners, playing staggered parlays can allow you to eliminate heavy juice in any moneyline sport. For this time of year, a methodology like this can easily be applied to both the NHL and MLB to avoid those somewhat dangerous chalky favorites. Sunday provided a great example to illustrate such an opportunity even if the parlay didn’t actually hit. Since we’re in the business of information exchange and building a thought process, here’s how the day would have unfolded: 3:20 pm Los Angeles Kings/ St Louis Blues 5 under -165 7:35 pm New Jersey Devils / Philadelphia Flyers 5.5 under -150 If we like to play both games under 5 and our unit is $1000, we would be risking $3150 to win $2000. If you’re a little more risk averse you could decide to play a two game parlay risking $1000 to win $1676.77. Now because the Kings/Blues game would be completed well before the Devils/Flyers dropped the puck, we had several options. If the first game went over 5, we could then play the 2nd game straight up risking $1500 to win $1000. In the end, we are risking $2500 instead of $3150 and we could break even on our dime units whereas if we split playing each game straight, the juice would make us nearly a half unit loser for the day. Here’s where things get interesting. If the first game comes in under the total, we have a decision to make before puck drops on the nightcap. We can of course leave the 2 team parlay and just risk the $1000 to win $1676.77.  However, for turning long term profit there will be plenty of...

  By James Kempton The final whistle sounded at Etihad last Monday and the stadium, sans 2,500 Manchester United fans, erupted to a chorus of cheers. Manchester City’s 1-0 win over their city neighbours and chief rivals for the EPL title ensures they are in control of their own destiny headed into the final two games. I could not help but think though as the players were lapping up the praise and adulation that it may be a bit premature since the race to EPL glory often has late twists and turns. In midweek, the eyes of Manchester centred on West London as Newcastle travelled to Chelsea. Never has a fifth plays sixth game been watched with such intensity as by the fans of the two Manchester clubs. If, as expected, Chelsea overcame Newcastle then the chance of Champions League qualification would be vanquished. That would have made Manchester City’s trip to the North East this Sunday much easier. However, the +600 dog Geordies did not read the script and go quietly into the night instead grabbing an amazing 2-0 win with the global fan base for Manchester United squarely behind them. Both goals in that win were scored by the hugely talented Papiss Cisse and his second goal is a contender for the best goal in EPL history. Partnering along side Cisse is Demba Ba and despite him going cold on the goalscoring front of late they will be a formidable partnership for City to contain. Man City is 9-5-4 on the road so can you really trust them as heavy favorites given the fact they only win half of their road games? Couple that with Newcastle’s 11-2-5 record and you create an awfully compelling match-up. However, all of you thinking of wagering on Newcastle this...

Contributed by NBA Prop Wizard Emile A (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) At playoff time, increased emphasis is placed on the ability to recognize strategic shortcomings and adjust decisively, without the luxury of protracted deliberation (aka s**t or get off the pot for those scoring at home). Tweaks are made from one game to the next, either in the interest of exploiting a newfound mismatch, offsetting an opponent’s advantage, or simply shaking up the status quo. A coach, unable to allow a trend to fully develop must use whatever information he deems most valuable – be it from the team’s most recent outing, the regular season, or a particular head-to-head matchup through the years and shift on the fly. This predicament in which NBA coaches find themselves this time of year mirrors the cat and mouse game between bettors and bookmakers. In the time one might require to identify, research, and confirm an emerging trend during the regular season, said trend has often come and gone. This phenomenon extends, in terms of velocity and magnitude, to the shifts made by bookmakers on wagering lines, particularly (thanks to the market’s relative illiquidity) player props. As we have seen from the outset, in the sportsbooks’ quest to simultaneously maintain an accurate market in a “new season” without straying too far from equilibrium, prop lines in the postseason are prone to considerable volatility. No in-depth discussion on the subject of sports wagering can go very far without touching on the subject of line volatility, or “getting the best of the number.” Whether on this site, others similar to it, podcasts (a frequent topic on Chad Millman’s Behind The Bets pod) or in conversation, much is made of understanding the significance of seemingly minor moves in not only a betting...

Contributed by @kyderbyjay Follow him on twitter for great race day insight and analysis The 2012 Kentucky Derby is upon us, and it figures to be as wide open a renewal as ever. As such, the wagering opportunities are fantastic, and, with wise selections, the chance for a nice payday is good. What follows is my biased and only slightly educated look at the field, but first, a word about what I look for in a Derby contender. The important thing is to envision how the race will be run. The Derby is unique in that the field is extremely large; a twenty-horse field is unheard of in any other North American race. As such, the first 30 yards are a very important part of the race. The old adage is that the race can’t be won then, but it sure as hell can be lost. Because of all the traffic, positioning in the early part of the race is important, with the speed horses cruising to the front, the stalkers looking to get a good position and save some ground, and the deep closers content to set in the back of the pack, waiting for one long run at the end of the race. One key thing to keep in mind is that horses rarely win the Derby on the front end; too many speed horses usually leads to a tiring speed duel. Horses that look great on paper that may have gotten away with wire-to-wire jobs in the smaller fields aren’t going to be so fortunate in the Derby. As for deep closers, they don’t often win either, as the task of passing 17 or 18 horses is a lot tougher than passing 5 or 6. That’s why I usually lean towards stalkers...

Click here to listen Riley and I delve into what the month of April has told us about baseball so far this season and what we can expect heading towards the dog days of summer

Click here to listen The 3HL crew and I talk Predators Stanley Cup chances, NBA playoffs, and the Sarah J Phillips story that’s taking the sports world by storm

Contribution courtesy of @SportsCheetah Last night Jared Weaver took the mound for the 9-15 Los Angeles Angels against the Minnesota Twins. For those that had their heads buried in the sand (or glued to playoff NBA or NHL action), the end result was a no-hitter. Personally, I believe this no-no came at just the right time for a team rapidly falling out of contention in the AL West only 24 games into the young season. The Angles opened up their check books this off-season and inked starting pitcher C.J. Wilson to a 5-year, $77.5 million contract. As if that weren’t enough, they also signed one of the greatest hitters of all-time to the second biggest contract in sports history, snatching Albert Pujols up for a bargain basement price of $254 million over 10 years. Unfortunately for the Halos, this “throw money at the biggest free-agents” strategy has yet to pay dividends. In fact, Pujols is having the worst start to any season in his 12-year career and the stats say its not even close. One guy can’t really miss being that close to Anheuser Busch and the Arch that much can he? A little less than 20% into the season, in a month where historically he has been at his most efficient, here are Pujols’ YTD averages compared to his career: .208/.252/.287 BA/OBP/SLG in 2012, compared to .327/.418/.612 hitter. Not only is Pujols struggling to get hits, but he has hit 0 HR’s through 101 plate appearances and has only walked 6 times while striking out 14. Before this season, Pujols walked almost 1,000 times compared to just 700 strikeouts while hitting a HR every 14.17 at-bats. The $254 million dollar man isn’t the only one struggling in the OC however and the Angels...