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Written by Justin Zovas The Las Vegas Hilton NFL SuperContest has been expanding for years and 2012 contest boasts a record number of entries.  With the SuperContest’s growth in popularity, this year’s payouts are more lucrative than ever.  The standard for NFL handicapping excellence has been raised and if math is any indication, this year’s champion will need to push the envelope.  We hear all the time about the gold standard, a winning % it takes be successful as a professional bettor. For a contest where every contestant enters a level playing field, we used raw numbers to give us our projected magic number.  Before anyone gets started and says “you can’t use math for this!” we’re well aware anomalies happen and someone very well may put together a 17 week run for the ages. With this in mind, what would be more fun than to break down the contest using some math and statistics? Pick 5 games a week X 17 weeks = 85 total games n=85 50% chance to be correct, 50% to be incorrect (ignoring half point wins for pushes) p=.5 Binomial Distribution based on n=85 and p=.5 See graph below Expected Value=42.5 “wins” Normal distribution Mean, median, mode are all 42.5 Half of contests expected to finish below 42.5, half above 42.5 Variance= 21.25 Standard Deviation=4.61 Standard Deviations 68% of contestants will fall within one standard deviation of the mean 506.6 contestants will finished between 37.89 and 47.11 wins 95% of contestants will fall within two standard deviations of the mean 707.75 contestants will finished between 33.28 and 51.72 wins 99.7% of contestants will fall within three standard deviations of the mean 742.77 contestants will finished between 28.67 and 56.33 win It is impossible to calculate, the wins needed to...

Written by James Kempton   Manchester United entertain Arsenal this weekend for Saturdays early morning game, kick off 845am EST, in what should be a very intriguing encounter. This meeting should be a showcase of the might and power of these two EPL giants. However, nothing could be further from the truth as both show huge signs of weakness that the rest of the clubs in the league are beginning to understand and understand how to exploit them. My analysis of both teams is going to be harsh so fans of the two clubs may want to turn away now! Where better to start picking these two teams apart than with the home side in this contest. United are in defensive shambles with a complete inability to keep a clean sheet. Their defence is an aging unit lacking speed and their midfield seems incapable of giving them any protective barrier against opposition attacks. The last few seasons had seen Sir Alex Ferguson attempt to adopt a more cautious continental approach to their style of play. Defensive strength was at the forefront of their game playing as they looked to squeeze the offensive threat out of teams and to win the game in a low scoring encounter. Sir Alex is no fool though as you do not have the incredible success in football that he has achieved without knowing the game inside out. He has quickly realized that this season he doesn’t have the personnel to play this type of game. Their last 8 EPL games has seen the over 2.5 goals ticket cash, with 6 of those winning on an over 3.5 goal line. Every home game at Old Trafford this season has seen that 3.5 goal line hit with 20 goals in those...

Betting on college football is as American as apple pie and bagging on Gene Chizik. The only difference between this podcast and the Auburn football program right now is the pod actually churns out winners from time to time. The widget’s been acting up so for those using mobile devices and ipads, this link’s for you Click here to...