UFC 194
UFC 194 Aldo vs. McGregor: When Irish eyes are swollen
Fight analysis provided by Gamblou
There’s our hint for today’s fight card Enthusiasts. We love to side with ugly, mangy, stray, unwanted mongrels and have been prudent in our UFC releases in the past. Today we view this talent laden fight card as a major challenge insofar as we believe there is value to be obtained and it is our role to diagnose opportunity, obtain said value with the goal being to enhance our bottom line. Let’s see how today’s handicapping fares….
UFC 2015: 81-97-2 + $1,931.00
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).
-Let’s Fight-
Aldo -115 vs. McGregor -105
Jose Aldo is giving up some height, a bit of reach and a year to the loudmouthed, confident challenger in his title defense tonight. While we always acknowledge the advantages an understanding of the raw numbers in a fight of this magnitude (and almost all the fights on tonight’s slate) we also must employ our most trusted tool in handicapping fights and that is the 40 plus years of experience and basic ‘gut feel’ we’ve acquired. Here’s what our instinct tells us:
McGregor is a forward pressing, aggressive lethal striker. As a southpaw he sports tremendous power with his straight left hand which he utilizes kicks and footwork to employ. He also sports a confidence and cockiness found only in young athletes who’ve meteorically shot to the top of their profession in short time, then begin to trust and believe in what the entourage, the press and the public are all feeding them. It’s our belief that McGregor is shy on the necessary ground experience for this fight and his one dimensional strike from a distance approach will be fatally flawed tonight when the Champion is able to ‘fight the Irishman inside a phone booth’, stay ‘in the pocket’ and neutralize the one dimensional weaponry that has catapulted McGregor in a few short months to the pinnacle of the MMA world. McGregor displayed in his last fight with Mendes that there are ‘areas of improvement’ in his game. Aldo watched that bout like a scientist studying for a cure and with the passing of each second in that fight Jose and his fight camp became more encouraged and confident that Chad was helping them refine their plan of attack…..not make it, refine it
Jose Aldo is not a promoter, he’s not an entertainer and he’s not a hype machine which are all becoming desired traits in today’s young UFC Champions. Now that we know what Jose is not we can call him what he is, a Champion. In fact Aldo has defended his title for about a decade and is undefeated in seven title defenses against ALL of the most capable fighters in the division including the incredible Frankie Edgar. Aldo has not had to undergo the hype and crapola of a second world tour to promote this fight instead he’s surrounded himself with his camp, his people and has become singularly focused in preparation of this fight which will surely be his biggest test.
We see this fight as going to the man who is able to sustain a pressed pace. If Conor is allowed to move forward and back Jose up it could well be a long night for the Brazilian fighter. Aldo must ‘slow dance’ with Conor, smother him, grope him, grapple him to the mat while making him utilize some of his ‘juice’ early in the fight. Aldo must maintain his position in the middle of the Octagon and make the longer Irishman fend off takedown attempts and a mauling inside the pocket style of attack. We believe it is the Irishman whose cardio may well be tested by the championship rounds for this is not going to be a short one or two round fight in our judgement. Aldo has faced better competition, more competition, he holds a vast experience edge and is not as mentally fragile now as he appeared to be in June leading up to the first scheduled bout. No, this six months of extra time off has allowed Aldo to return to who he is, a World Class Championship MMA fighter and tonight we feel will be his shining moment.
Just a year ago when this line came out for the fight scheduled in July Aldo opened -190 (or within cents of that number). Today the line is basically a pick-em. We own Aldo +160 (disclosed on Twitter). We honestly believed that the price would actually grow which we were very wrong on as our plan was to gobble up more Aldo at a dog price. That said we love the market advantage we own in this affair but realize our Enthusiasts are looking at this fight via today’s numbers. We also ‘Tweeted’ out some days ago a position on the “Fight starts Round three” -140 for in or judgement this fight will not be decided inside of 15 minutes. So with a ‘Swing it Easy’ approach here’s our advice for this fight using current lines.
Aldo -115 (or better, we’ll be watching)
Fight starts Round 3 -165 (value also on Over 2.5 -125 for those with no access to props)
Weidman -140 vs. Rockhold +120
What an epic fight capable of being a main event on its own merit! We view this fight as one of the top match-ups for a Championship belt EVER to be held in the UFC. We credit Rockhold with a diverse striking attack, a 3” reach advantage with his legs (a major advantage for a striker/kicker of his ilk), and soaring confidence. Luke has prepared well for this fight as he’s addressed the wrestling advantage Weidman holds over him by competing every day in camp with the likes of Daniel Cormier and Cain Velasquez, two much larger heavier Champions that can stress wresting on Luke in practice as he prepared for this bout.
In Weidman’s case he is the Champion and this will be his fourth defense. Weidman we perceive to be much like Frankie Edgar, an east coast kid with guile, grit, work ethic, toughness but little talk. Weidman was not shy in his preparation for this fight either as he shipped in Alexander Gustaffson as well as previous workouts with Stevie ‘Wonder Boy’ Thompson in order to acclimate himself with Rockhold’s striking style and lengthy anatomy. At the end of the day we feel the one factor Luke and not improve upon is his chin as well we also believe Weidman to be the tougher minded fighter. This fight opened Weidman -150 and it’s dropped. We’ll be watching this line Oh so closely because we want every penny of value on
Weidman -140 (patience…lower price coming?)
Souza -135 vs. Romero +115
Romero is a fighting beast with World Class wrestling as a base and brutal knockout power as an exclamation. What Romero lacks is deep MMA experience and late round cardio which play into the hands of the vastly more seasoned Souza. Souza opened up -170 which seemed an accurate price given the two issues with Romero that we point out above. Yet, the ‘crowd’ who only study the last fight for their basis of betting have ‘bought in’ on Romero which provides us value in this fight. Our questions surrounding Romero’s cardio (Tim Kennedy fight) and his experience must be addressed before we can couple with the Cuban.
Souza -135
Maia -115 vs. Nelson -105
Another fight we hold market advantage on is Nelson +125 issued days ago also. We love Damian Maia but this appears to be a difficult spot for him as he is in with a man eleven years younger. It’s our feeling that if Nelson can weather the first round against Maia who is as fine a grappler as there is in the division then his youth, his cardio and stand up advantages will become apparent.
Nelson -105
Mutts, Mules, Mongrels, Hounds, Pups and Pooches
Half unit plays:
Medeiros +150, Lybarger +260, Saenz +505, Stephens +475
