The Gambler’s Foursome Apr04

The Gambler’s Foursome...

Hit him up on twitter with any golf questions @fullmarx12 Masters Preview Part II: Finding Value in Matchups Yesterday we examined the pre-tournament futures market, where the big score can be as tantalizing as it is elusive. In head-to-head matchups, though, cashing a ticket is far more attainable. Here are some keys to breaking down the H2H matchup market for The Masters this week: Develop a Gameplan It is easy to become overwhelmed upon perusing a full slate of golf betting options – first round, tournament matchups, top senior, top Australian, top player named after an animal, etc. The key is to put into place some guidelines and develop a plan that will help isolate lines with the most potential value. One rule that I tend to follow is to avoid single-round matchups early in the event, instead focusing on full tournament matchups. Much like betting a single NBA playoff game versus backing a team for a seven-game series, the prevailing thought is that the better golfer will rise to the top more consistently over the course of four rounds than across a single day. One-round matchups tend to have higher variance as a single shot or hole can decide a winner, and a variable outside of the bettor’s control – i.e. weather delays – can have a much more profound impact. Once play gets to the weekend, and golfers are in twosomes playing with someone at or near their same cumulative score, single-round matchup wagers can become more viable. Similarly, I avoid backing some of the juicier favorites in H2H matchups, especially in a smaller field event like The Masters. Unlike a Saints-Colts SNF game, the talent gap between these golfers is razor thin. A matchup line of -150 implies that the favored...

Masters Preview: Figuring out the Futures Apr03

Masters Preview: Figuring out the Futures...

Follow our golf expert on twitter @fullmarx12 Masters Preview: Taking Stock of the Futures Market Azaleas, instrumental music, a revival of the term “patrons” and the hushed tones of Jim Nantz. Yes, Masters Week is upon us and golf’s first major is officially up for grabs. This week brings golf bettors of all shapes and sizes out of the woodwork, eager to predict the man to don the coveted green jacket Sunday night. This tournament is particularly attractive to bettors for its (relative) lack of variables – it is the only major championship contested at the same venue each year, lending credence to historical results/data, and it has the smallest field of any major. While the U.S. and British Opens routinely have 140+ participants, this year’s Masters field of 97 is actually higher than usual. Factoring out amateurs and older past champions unlikely to contend, you are left with one of the smallest fields of “realistic contenders” of any tournament played this year. Finding an Edge As with most sports in the internet age, golf handicappers have no shortage of information at their fingertips. The key is deciphering which facts give you an edge and which are already priced into the line. In researching this event, one of the first tidbits you will come across is that no one has won The Masters in their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Fade the 14 first-timers in the field, right? It’s never that easy. Sadly, you are not the only one to come across this information, and the books have already factored this information into the price they are offering for Masters rookies like Keegan Bradley and Webb Simpson. So the key becomes finding an edge that the books may not be as aware...