Establishing balance in a futures market is essential for attracting action on all teams. Unlike a normal supply and demand curve where price rises as demand increases, the opposite is holds true when booking futures; while people are clamoring to bet a team to win the title amid a hot streak or after a major trade, odds drop.  When bettors are avoiding certain teams in the market like the plague, you guessed it, bookmakers raise the number until they can entice a bet.  The process isn’t nearly as simple as I’ve made it sound of course but it’s not difficult to maintain a highly competitive market when monitoring sports daily. Every bookmaker responsible for building a market also understands the theoretical hold his shop strives to keep. Theoretical hold is the percentage of every dollar wagered that goes to the house. In terms of futures, market average should range from 25% on the low side to 40% on the high for most major sports. The perfect market requires equal and opposite reactions on both sides of the equation to maintain equilibrium implying that every time a price is dropped, another needs to be raised (think physics that energy can neither be removed or produced without going somewhere). The primary goal for bookmakers is to achieve balance heading into the season so they can make daily adjustments as the balance of power changes. To visualize the process imagine a balance where you have a large weight on one side and 10 smaller weights on the other. As the standings change, the challenge is steering action towards different commodities (or both sides of the balance) so bettors are able to make a case for not only the prohibitive favorite at 5/2 but also the longshot...

Written by Oddsmaker Adam (follow him on twitter) Adam is a seasoned oddsmaker down in the islands managing shops both in the Caribbean and Dominican Republic. Each week he’ll fill us in on his findings as he tests an ongoing baseball experiment during the 2013 season. WagerMetrics is an experiment which is currently in its first year of public testing. WM’s is a way of betting on baseball that relies on the human element and not statistics. Each documented player is given an emotional profile and projections are made based on his body language and secondary emotional responses. Emotion levels are put into numbers which are then converted into prices. Each player is worth a specific amount to his team as a whole. His price fluctuates based on performance in relation to his emotional profile. These prices are added up to give a team a base value. Based on changing prices and projections, these prices change and are converted into betting lines. These lines display spots of value and suggest where wagers should be made. They say “People lie, numbers wont.” I disagree. ******************** Current Team Values: Los Angeles Dodgers – $470.72 (+4.72) San Francisco Giants $436.38 (+18.38) Arizona Diamondbacks $375.42 (+17.42) Colorado Rockies $344.43 (-0.57) San Diego Padres $268.20 (+4.20) Division Overview Going into the weekend four of the five teams have positive values, and are playing above their expectations. The entire division is currently worth $1895.15, its highest price to date. The Dodgers make up the most value at 24.85% while the Padres make up the least at 14.1%. While the division as a whole is up in value, the parity level has not increased. Win loss records may indicate a big gap in talent, the WagerMetrics do not. San Francisco Giants @ Chicago...

With the American League already complete, what would leaving a job half finished say about me if I neglected the NL?  In the interest of being concise and precise we’ll get right to the point while assessing the senior circuit and the playoff prospects for some unlikely contenders. 16) Houston Astros I really struggled with who to place into this dubious distinction of dead last so congrats to the Astros for top billing. The future might look bright (eventually) with an underrated pitching staff yet this season is definitely a lost cause.  At least Texans camp opens in only a few weeks right? 15) Chicago Cubs Anyone remember that old Bugs Bunny cartoon where he plays every position? If Anthony Rizzo can do that, I’m definitely open to moving the lovable losers up my list.  There are a few talented young hitters that will come up through the ranks but it’s only going to get worse on the north side when Dempster and Garza are dealt for prospects. 14) Colorado Rockies Jeremy Guthrie is this team’s ace…no, I didn’t stutter before marking that down he really is. I know Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, and Cargo are the names for the future however the future on Blake Street isn’t this summer. 13) San Diego Padres The reason I have this team slightly ahead of their cellar dwelling compatriots is because they’re undervalued in the betting market.  If you’re looking for offense, this isn’t your team. However the young bounty they heisted from the Reds in the Mat Latos deal should pay dividends the next 75 games and at least allow them to be competitive. 12) Milwaukee Brewers I’m under the assumption both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are headed away from beer town USA. If...

With half the season already in the books, very little has been decided this baseball season. Sure, we know the Padres and Cubs are struggling but we didn’t need to watch 80+ games to be surprised by this development. Pittsburgh and the Chicago White Sox have to be the 2 biggest surprises in baseball when you consider the last time the Buccos finished above .500 I was 8 years old and before this year the last image I had of Robin Ventura impacting a playoff race was pinch hitting for the Bronx Bombers. There’s no pageantry or fanfare in assessing the field right now and I’ve broken the leagues into 2 posts starting with the American League today followed by the National League tomorrow. Rather than compile them league wide, I found it easier to break down by league so don’t get cute trying to match #3 in the AL with #3 in the NL given that it’s an apples to orange like comparison. Always keep in mind these are subject to change like everything in sports. American League 14) Seattle Mariners Quick word association: Ichiro, Felix, Supersonics, Sounders. Oops, this isn’t all baseball related and unfortunately for fans in the Emerald City they don’t see a lot of big league caliber ball from their home town team either. I’m not sure what Seattle is doing right now since there are a few nice pieces to build around yet they seem years away from competing. Eric Wedge needs moral victories now and reasons for optimism so in my opinion scoring runs at Safeco should be where they start. 13) Minnesota Twins There’s not much to say about the Twins at this point in the year other than the revolving door on the mound has...

by Steve Caruso (follow him on twitter @RusoCaruso) When it comes to betting baseball, I think a lot of guys (including seasoned veterans) who bet other sports find it overwhelming at times. Baseball is such a numbers driven sport it’s easy to get bogged down and hung up on misleading stats that don’t correlate to handicapping success. You also need to factor in the translation from point spread to run line to moneyline and you have a headache waiting to happen for a lot of people. Personally, I think baseball can provide gifts throughout the year when bookmakers shift focus away from the diamond to other more heavily bet sports. Now, the way MLB lines are set up is with a heavy emphasis on who’s starting (pitching) for each team. We know everyone has their own method on what metrics are key in handicapping, but usually what you’ll find is everyone does things a little bit differently. In my opinion if you’re looking for something concrete, something often objective in a subjective sport to factor into your handicapping research then look no further than Umpire Strike %’s. Before you dispute my thesis think of a time when your favorite team (or any other team) you had money on lost a game because of an umpire, and no Buccos fans I’m not talking about the infamous Jerry Meals incident at Turner Field. Now that I’ve made your blood start to boil thinking about umpires lets think why we get so heated: Say it with me now, “they’re masked men with power to influence every game.” Officials are very instrumental to any sporting event and I’m not trying to bash them for making mistakes but the reality is we need every edge we can find as handicappers. I...

Contributed by Steve Koerber (follow him on twitter @ajsplays) Sometime in the near future a few of these 15 pitchers will figure out how to pitch on the road and will no longer make this list.  Let’s call it the “Wandy Rodriguez complex” since the now reliable Astros starter used to be an auto-play at home while a mandatory fade on the highway.  Zack Greinke is the closest arm to removing himself from this list after coming off his most impressive road start as a Brewer on Tuesday. Combine that with his strong finish on the road in 2011 and he might finally be showing the command expected of an ace away from Miller Park. James McDonald hasn’t been bad on the road to start the year but is still 2 runs worse when he leaves the confines of PNC. Justin Masterson looked like he turned the corner last year but has since reverted back into his old self through  the early portions of 2012. A great start by Jaime Garcia Wednesday night brought his 2012 road numbers down but I’d like to see him do it with some consistency in places other than San Francisco since AT&T park remains a haven for fly ball arms. In my opinion, some of these pitchers are a lot better to factor into totals than sides. For example, Clayton Richard has been very good at Petco Park yet his offense is still terrible so betting on him can be difficult. The Padres have lost 13 of his last 16 home Starts while scoring 2 runs or less in 12 of those games so I prefer to look under the total every time he goes to the bump in southern California. Below are a list of arms with...

Contributed by JEFF WILLIAMS (follow him on twitter @SLIMrosco) Even though the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS struggled heading into Arizona, I really like the way this team is playing.  Over the weekend they lost 2 of 3 to a suddenly hot Astros team but rebounded last night with a solid offensive showing posting a 9-6 win.  Chase Field is known for producing runs when the spring/summer temperatures rise, and one thing you will learn about me, I LOVE to play games ‘OVER’ the total (insert square jokes here).  As a result, this series appears to be right in my wheel house as an offense lover’s dream.  Entering last night, a couple Cardinal players were really stroking the ball over their past 6; Furcal .417 with 10 hits and 7 runs scored, Jay 9 hits and a .409 average, Holliday 6 runs batted in and a .391 average, and Beltran .353 with 2 home runs and 8 runs batted in.  Last night they didn’t disappoint as Furcal, Holliday, and Beltran all went yard and combined to go 5-13 with 4 RBI’s and 3 runs scored. The Diamondbacks started their recent road trip off hot, but lost 5 of their last 6 games.  Battling some injuries and players not playing up to their full potential, the D-Backs are being overvalued right now especially in their own building and I believe you’ll have opportunity to “buy” the Cards at a reasonable price all series. OTHER TEAM ON MY RADAR: L.A. ANGELS Yes, we all know Pujols has finally hit his first home run on Sunday.  Big freakin deal.  What I think is the bigger story here, is that this team gets to head to Minnesota and play the Twins for three games for the 2nd time this year!...

Contribution courtesy of @SportsCheetah Last night Jared Weaver took the mound for the 9-15 Los Angeles Angels against the Minnesota Twins. For those that had their heads buried in the sand (or glued to playoff NBA or NHL action), the end result was a no-hitter. Personally, I believe this no-no came at just the right time for a team rapidly falling out of contention in the AL West only 24 games into the young season. The Angles opened up their check books this off-season and inked starting pitcher C.J. Wilson to a 5-year, $77.5 million contract. As if that weren’t enough, they also signed one of the greatest hitters of all-time to the second biggest contract in sports history, snatching Albert Pujols up for a bargain basement price of $254 million over 10 years. Unfortunately for the Halos, this “throw money at the biggest free-agents” strategy has yet to pay dividends. In fact, Pujols is having the worst start to any season in his 12-year career and the stats say its not even close. One guy can’t really miss being that close to Anheuser Busch and the Arch that much can he? A little less than 20% into the season, in a month where historically he has been at his most efficient, here are Pujols’ YTD averages compared to his career: .208/.252/.287 BA/OBP/SLG in 2012, compared to .327/.418/.612 hitter. Not only is Pujols struggling to get hits, but he has hit 0 HR’s through 101 plate appearances and has only walked 6 times while striking out 14. Before this season, Pujols walked almost 1,000 times compared to just 700 strikeouts while hitting a HR every 14.17 at-bats. The $254 million dollar man isn’t the only one struggling in the OC however and the Angels...

Everyone who successfully bets baseball knows the long term key to profitability is identifying value wherever it presents itself.  Whether its a total, side, or run line, there are always spots for the sharp gambler to gain an edge over those of us on the bookmaking side.  The truth is we as bookmakers have to line every game each night while the bettor only needs to find one game where he or she believes they can find variance between true odds and the market.  Astute players have lists of pitchers and umpires they’ll look to bet on (or against) with their primary real goal finding value in a commodity long before the book does. Matchups are a key component in sports, there’s no disputing that aspect. However, there are games where the match-up advantage is effectively priced into the line eliminating the perceived edge and yet there are also spots where it isn’t accounted for accurately. When it comes to past performance of certain teams, it’s not always indicative of the future. The Dodgers improbable start serves as a poster child for illustrating this concept because a further examination of their hot start reveals they were aided by 2 series’ against the Padres and one against the offensively challenged Pirates.  As a result, gamblers looked to capitalize when LA headed to Milwaukee and have reaped benefits of fading LA each of the last 2 nights. When you break down pitching match-ups, dig into what the past history is telling you. Where was the game played, when was the game played, was it during a breakout season etc? I can’t emphasize the fact starting pitching is only one facet of betting baseball since bullpens and offenses tend to play in the outcome of a game...

We hear about the growth of fantasy sports all the time as fans look for ways to increase involvement during each sport season.  Rarely is their a positive correlation between life as a fantasy owner and winning percentage as a gambler except for the summer months.  Finding undervalued (and overvalued) starting pitchers in baseball is synonymous with turning a profit because staying one step ahead of the linesmaker creates positive expectations.  Every year there are a handful of pitchers who burst onto the scene and leave a windfall of cash in their wake for loyal backers.  Unlike other sports, hitting 52.5% isn’t required to be successful when you isolate an arm that goes 10-10 at an average price of +135 since he yields a greater return than an elite arm who rattles off an 18-9 campaign with an average closing price of -200.  Is isolating a pitching mismatch the only thing you need to be a successful baseball bettor? Of course not but if you can enter a seemingly 50/50 proposition with a dog of +150 continually ignored by the bookmaker you’re off to a great start before every first pitch. It goes without saying the arms you’d look to bet on will be value buys for fantasy owners as well while the starters on the overvalued list are pitchers people will overdraft this season and headaches better left to your competition. A quick glance at the list of most profitable arms in 2011 reveals some obvious names like Cy Young award winners Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander but how many people out there knew Jason Marquis and Aaron Harang netted the 9th and 10th greatest profit among pitchers starting at least 20 games? Most Profitable Arms Name Team Team W-L $ 1 Ian...