Written by @bdolan12 Group C: Croatia, Italy, Ireland, Spain Snap Shot: Group C looks to be an interesting mix of teams that has everything from the tournament favorite (Spain), a team playing their first EURO in 24 years (Ireland), and a side caught in the middle of major match fixing allegations (Italy). Group C offers intriguing questions, most importantly: Can Spain continue its dominance and win EURO 2012 on the heels of their 2010 World Cup championship? Group C Schedule Sunday, June 10 12 EST: Spain vs. Italy Sunday, June 10 2:45 EST: Ireland vs. Croatia Thursday, June 14 12 EST: Italy vs. Croatia Thursday, June 14 2:45 EST: Spain vs. Ireland Monday, June 18 2:45 EST: Croatia vs. Spain Monday, June 18 2:45 EST: Italy vs. Ireland Croatia FIFA ranking: 8 After missing out on the 2010 World Cup, Croatia will be happy to be involved in a major tournament once again. However, this tactically strong team measures their success based on results not just appearing on the big stage. The key to their squad is Tottenham’s star midfielder Luka Modric. The playmaking midfielder is by far the most well known player on the squad needs to serve as primary distributor if the Croats are to advance from Group C. Niko Krancjar, also of Tottenham, and captain Darijo Srna strengthen the midfield which is clearly the team’s overall strength. With a less than spectacular defense, there will be an emphasis on scoring goals to take pressure off the back. Up front, there are a few decent options in Eduardo and Ivica Olic who have 45 and 77 caps respectively. However, Olic suffered a thigh injury this week in a friendly and might be limited entering the tournament. Another interesting option is Nikica Jelavic,...

Written by @bdolan12 Group B: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Portugal Snap Shot: Group B has been rightfully labeled as “The Group of Death” and features both Germany and Holland, the 2nd and 3rd favorites on most future boards to win the entire tournament. In any other group Portugal and Denmark would receive a lot more consideration as tournament dark horses but just getting out of their group should be considered a major triumph given this year’s competition. Group B Schedule Saturday, June 9 12 EST:  Netherlands vs Denmark Saturday, June 9 2:45 EST:  Germany vs Portugal Wednesday, June 13 12 EST:  Denmark vs Portugal Wednesday, June 13 2:45 EST:  Netherlands vs Germany Sunday, June 17 2:45 EST:  Denmark vs Germany Sunday, June 17 2:45 EST:  Netherlands vs Portugal Denmark FIFA ranking: 10 It’s hard not to feel a little sorry for the Danes after the draw they received. Denmark has  confidence knowing they finished first in qualifying Group H, which included Portugal. Denmark possesses a solid squad that is effective and efficient, even if it lacks star power. Captain Daniel Agger, a Liverpool player, will lead the defense against the potent offenses the Danes will encounter throughout Group B. In addition to the draw, Denmark was dealt a blow recently when first-choice goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen (Stoke City) pulled out of the tournament with an injury. Young midfielder Christian Eriksen (Ajax) will be counted on to make plays going forward and serve as playmaker but he might not be ready for this stiff task just yet. The main source of offense appears to be Nicklas Bendtner, the 24 year old forward who is never low on confidence but can be short on actual production. If Denmark is to have any success, they will likely need to...

Written by @bdolan12 Euro 2012 kicks off  June 8th in Poland / Ukraine and will culminate July 1 with a champion being crowned. This will be the last installment of the tournament before the field is expanded to 24 teams four years from now so expect the 16-team field to provide excellent entertainment and inevitable drama. I’ll be breaking down each group and offering  some predictions and analysis of each group starting with today’s installment. Group A: Poland, Czech Republic, Greece, Russia Snap shot: Group A appears to be the weakest of the four groups and certainly the most wide-open of them all. The group isn’t home to any elite European power or traditional blue blood so the question remains which up and coming nation will seize the opportunity on the big stage? Group A Schedule Friday, June 8 12 EST: Poland vs Greece Friday, June 8 2:45 EST: Russia vs Czech Republic Tuesday, June 12 12 EST: Greece vs Czech Republic Tuesday, June 12 2:45 EST: Poland vs Russia Saturday, June 16 2:45 EST: Greece vs Russia Saturday, June 16 2:45 EST: Czech Republic vs Poland Poland FIFA ranking: 65 The co-hosts hope to take advantage of a favorable draw on home soil. Poland looks to get off to a hot start with the opening game of the tournament against Greece. With automatic qualification ensured, the squad has not played many competitive matches over the past few years. The team leans heavily on young forward Robert Lewandowski, one of three players on the squad who play for German Bundesliga champions Borussia Dortmund. Lewandowski had an excellent season for Dortmund and will attempt to make the difference up front for the Polish team. In addition to the young striker, the Polish side also features...

Written by Andrew Choe (@choe20) I was sitting outside with a few of my friends who happen to be very knowledgeable and successful working in the stock market.  They listened to me vent about the bad streak I was going through betting bases which saw my ROI drop from 78% to 17%. We started talking about the correlation between sports betting and the stock market – comparing yearly return on investments as the main similarity between the two. I then brought up the question, “What yearly return on investment would you be happy with, in order to walk away satisfied every year?”. My friends both answered firmly, “20 percent.” I asked why and both merely said “Look at it this way, I double my investments in five years.  Fives years!” In my head I started relating it to sports and thinking to myself how easy 20% was for me to reach and surpass. At that point, all of a sudden everything clicked: What if you set realistic goals on your desired returns at the end of each season using previous data from your handicapping history to figure out an attainable percentage (note: this requires strong record keeping so you understand exactly where your strengths and weaknesses are, not just a 1 year sample size) For someone like me, I prefer to play across the board in almost every major sport (MLB, NCAAB, NHL, NBA, NFL, and NCAAF). Many good handicappers go through hot streaks, with most of their profit margin occurring early in the season. Inevitably, what everyone will faces at some point is regression. No matter how good of a handicapper you are, with every hot streak is a cold streak waiting right around the corner. A good strategy  is back tracking your...

Click here to listen Mark, Jim, and I break down Game 4 of the Western Conference finals…among other things

Written by @JustinZovas “Team A has got to take care of the football this week,” words every NFL fan will hear 1,047,683 times during the 2012 season. Turnover margin, the net difference between turnovers gained and turnovers lost , is a crucial factor in determining the outcome of a football game. Reasoning behind this is simple;  in order to score (for most teams), you need the ball and turnovers lead to a change of possesion.  End result? Turnover margins serve as a good reflection of a team’s success not only in terms of wins and losses but also how many games they’ll cover. For example, the Green Bay Packer’s turnover margin last season was +24 and the Packers ended the regular season 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS. Conversely, the Washington Redskins struggled to hang onto the ball finishing 5-11 SU and 6-9-1 ATS because of a -14 turnover margin (aka the Rex Grossman effect). Empirical data confirms the theory that turnover margins fluctuate from year to year and a team’s average turnover margin over the course of multiple seasons should end up close to zero. However, just like any other long term trend, there are random variances from year to year. Extremely high or low TO margins one season are typically followed by a massive regression to the mean the following year. As a byproduct of abnormally high (or low) turnover margins, significant changes from one year to the next create unrealistic expectations for teams. A team that experiences a dramatic improvement in turnover margin will their point spread inflate, reflecting an over valued side. After a season where a team benefits from fortuitous bounces, there will be a correction so we welcome the 2011 San Francisco 49ers into our 2012 equation. You’ll notice during the 9...

by Adam Chemerinksy (follow him on twitter @gamblingkings) The second grand slam is finally here. For novice tennis bettors, the easiest way to bet on a tournament is to simply pick the winner of the match: sounds easy enough right? Forget set betting and betting the tennis spread but rather just stick to money line wagering and remember that the Grand Slam lasts two weeks, so it is a marathon– not a sprint– with your bankroll.  Here are a few tips to help get you through the tournament… Betting individual matches The early rounds, like all single elimination tournaments, feature tons of matches and an opportunity to find a few softer prices for the well trained eye.  With a beginner’s mentality in mind, my recommendation is to focus on the following methods and pin point a few matches you feel strongly about rather than peppering the board with action. The following 4 steps are what I employ before considering a trip to the window and placing a bet. 1) Make sure you know how your player has performed on clay over the last two years It sounds simple enough since it’s the only Slam played on this surface. There are only a few tour events played on clay each year but many novice bettors won’t change their betting style based on this essential determinant. Flat out; surface matters because some players thrive on the dirt, while others never figure it out (Andy Roddick I’m looking right at you!!!). David Ferrer and Nicholas Almagro have the most clay court wins so far this year and always bear watching at the French. In fact, for years, both players have been known as “dirtballers” (players who rack up significant wins during the Clay court season). The clay typically favors...

Click here to listen The 3HL crew and I break down the NBA playoff pictures and the process for setting NFL win totals. The prop on O/U MPH for Clay’s first speeding ticket on the pilgrimage to the SEC meetings?...

When inspiration strikes after I read something thought provoking from fellow members of the sports gambling industry, I get the itch to share my opinion.  This week’s trigger came from a piece written by Micah Roberts on Vegasinsider.com (read the article here) following I’ll Have Another’s win at Pimlico. The article intimated how a triple crown winner in horse racing might be exactly what the doctor ordered to create renewed interest in a dying end of our business.  As someone who approaches race and sports with his own developing perspective, I’ll readily admit horse racing is on life support in terms of relevance among my generation.  Firing on the ponies doesn’t appeal to us the same way as the traditional sports where we know the players, teams, and coaches because 24/7 media coverage gives us full time access. Let’s avoid naivete, betting on the ponies isn’t nearly as appealing as wagering on the NFL to the 21-45 year old demographic. To have continued success in horse racing, it takes years of studying and due diligence to understand lineage, jockeys, and track biases.  No one can debate that combing through the daily racing form is a more cumbersome and daunting task than reviewing box scores and stat packages. In order to make horse racing viable as a gambling past time again, the sport needs to be more accessible for the masses and that doesn’t mean simply focusing on just the triple crown races and Breeders Cup. Speaking from the vantage point of someone who would love to see the industry rebound, I offer 3 suggestions that could be effective in stirring a slow revival for our grandfather’s game. 1) Make the Daily Racing Form easier to understand Every time I pick up the publication I’m intimidated. I’ve had industry...

Written by Andrew Choe (follow him on twitter @choe20) Many of us have fallen victim of going through forums and locating threads on “systems” that are guaranteed to turn a substantial profit without any work involved. The majority (if not all of them) of them never work and if they do their success is fleeting, creating short-term profit that eventually subsides. However, I have always found systems intriguing as a betting concept, not because I’m a lazy gambler and looking to make a quick buck, but rather because I enjoy the different perspectives, angles, and patterns that go into creating a system. This article has no intentions of trying to persuade you to give in to testing this system or bet it with your own bankroll instead it’s written to better illustrate and explain how a system can work as a guideline on top of handicapping and filtering to create long-term success. I stumbled on a system for MLB in a posting forum called “The RPI Chase”, created by user ‘bettor2win’. The premise is simple in that you bet a team to avoid a sweep in a series based on the outcome of the RPI (Relative Power Index). Because the goal is to get just one win, you keep chasing the losses on top of what you wagered originally to turn a unit profit. RPI (relative power index) is a mathematical formula derived from Bill James’ Pythagorean theorem of baseball. The formula was designed to relate a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to its win-loss record. The RPI Chase System: 1. If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase....

Written by Jay Kellegrew (follow him on twitter @hellonewman39) When some people step off the plane at McCarran airport, they see nothing but bright lights and hope. They head to the sportsbook and check out the slate of NBA and NHL playoff matchups while also pretending to have a firm grasp of who every starter is in each baseball game. However, they completely ignore the other half of the sportsbook where people speak a foreign language about trifectas, maidens, and mudders. My goal here isn’t to make you a handicapping wizard but rather help provide a basic guide to pari-mutuel betting, the kind employed through all Vegas casinos and most of your local off track betting facilities. First, let’s talk about the types of wagers that can be made. The wagers are split into two categories; straight wagers and exotic wagers. Straight wagers Win – picking which horse will win the race Place – picking a horse that will come in 1st or 2nd Show – picking a horse that will come in the top 3 Exotic wagers Exacta – predicting the first 2 horses in exact order Trifecta – predicting the first 3 horses in exact order Superfecta – predicting the first 4 horses in exact order Win and Place pools explained Unlike the other side of the sportsbook where lines are fixed as soon as the ticket is in your hand, pari-mutuel odds change right up until the start of the race because final prices aren’t determined until the final pool is calculated . You are competing against your fellow gamblers; the house merely takes a cut of all money that is bet. For example, let’s say a total of 1 million dollars (after the house cut) was bet on all the...

Contributed by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The finale of the Champions League takes place today when Bayern Munich plays Chelsea at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Both teams have battled adversity to reach this night with Bayern playing 14 games (as they had to pre-qualify) and Chelsea having 12 encounters along the way. Both teams were dogs in their respective semi finals as they faced the might of the Spanish giants, Barcelona and Real Madrid. Incredible performances saw each side triumph and earn their place in this prestigious showpiece event. Chelsea snatched an amazing 3-2 aggregate win over Barcelona with a resolute defensive display showing true English spirit. Their 2-2 away result in the Nou Camp in Barcelona was achieved despite playing much of the game with just 10 men. They were reduced in numbers due to the idiotic actions of talismanic captain John Terry who kicked a Barcelona forward away from the action and was given a straight red card. This only appeared to galvanise Chelsea’s resolve and drove them to a level of performance that not many felt such an old team would be capable of against a power like Barca. Given the straight red, John Terry’s services won’t be available for today’s championship. In addition to Terry, Chelsea will be without defender Ivanovic and midfielders Meireles and Ramires. Of the four absentees I see the loss of Ramires as critical. Chelsea will miss the young Brazilians energy and ability to close the opposition down and regain possession for the Blues. Along with the suspension issues, Chelsea has injury concerns to defenders Cahill and Luiz. Coach Di Matteo will keep his selections as close to the vest as possible to not give any advantage to Munich. This will mean...