Contributed by horse racing expert John Valter (follow him on twitter @kyderbyjay) I’ve finally stopped celebrating my brilliant Kentucky Derby handicapping and sat down to the business of tackling the 2012 Preakness, the middle jewel of racing’s Triple Crown. It’s a bit of a different race than the Derby and requires a different handicapping mindset. While recent Derbys have produced some winners who completely disappeared after wearing the garland of roses (Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver), the Preakness has produced a number of champions who either failed in the Derby (Afleet Alex, Curlin, Lookin At Lucky) or didn’t race in Kentucky at all (Bernardini, Rachel Alexandra). Even last year’s Preakness winner, Shackleford, looks to be the superior horse to the last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. In terms of envisioning how the race will be won, it’s actually unlikely to be run that much different than the Derby, just with a smaller field. There is a common perception that speed horses tend to fare much better over the Pimlico oval but it’s not necessarily accurate. Shackleford did win last year after battling with Flashpoint for the early lead, however more often than not the winner tends to come from off the pace. Here’s my look at the field (just 11 horses, smallest since 2008), dividing those horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby from those that didn’t: The New Shooters: Pretension is the only horse with a win over the track, a minor stakes race on Derby Day. However, he was a well-beaten 9th in his race prior in the Illinois Derby against a much better field and looks hopelessly overmatched here…Zetterholm, trained by Richard Dutrow, has won three straight, albeit all against New York state-bred horses and does not appear to...

Contributed by Steve Koerber (follow him on twitter @ajsplays) Sometime in the near future a few of these 15 pitchers will figure out how to pitch on the road and will no longer make this list.  Let’s call it the “Wandy Rodriguez complex” since the now reliable Astros starter used to be an auto-play at home while a mandatory fade on the highway.  Zack Greinke is the closest arm to removing himself from this list after coming off his most impressive road start as a Brewer on Tuesday. Combine that with his strong finish on the road in 2011 and he might finally be showing the command expected of an ace away from Miller Park. James McDonald hasn’t been bad on the road to start the year but is still 2 runs worse when he leaves the confines of PNC. Justin Masterson looked like he turned the corner last year but has since reverted back into his old self through  the early portions of 2012. A great start by Jaime Garcia Wednesday night brought his 2012 road numbers down but I’d like to see him do it with some consistency in places other than San Francisco since AT&T park remains a haven for fly ball arms. In my opinion, some of these pitchers are a lot better to factor into totals than sides. For example, Clayton Richard has been very good at Petco Park yet his offense is still terrible so betting on him can be difficult. The Padres have lost 13 of his last 16 home Starts while scoring 2 runs or less in 12 of those games so I prefer to look under the total every time he goes to the bump in southern California. Below are a list of arms with...

Contributed by Emile (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) Thanks to continued attrition and plainly apparent gulfs in class among the combatants, the trends that will govern the NBA’s conference semis have begun to reveal themselves. Following up on Part I of my look at NBA playoffs prop culture, a quick rundown of what to look for going forward as the final eight lock horns: Matchups to Watch: Conference Semifinals, Part II Boston Celtics v. Philadelphia 76ers Got It Made: No one’s rockin’ the throwback look this spring quite like Kevin Garnett. In eight 2012 postseason contests, KG has been exceptional. Not “good for his age,” downright elite. In six games against the Hawks and one against Philly, he’s posted a 23.7 PER (in the 2004 postseason, during which he collected his MVP trophy, his PER was 25) and an awesome .241 Win Shares/ 48 minutes. During the regular season (admittedly a larger and more meaningful sample), only LeBron James (a silly .298) and Chris Paul (a batshit-but-sane-by-comparison .278) bettered this mark, with no one else topping .230. There is a case to be made that Garnett’s recent dominance – 16+ points five times, including 28 and 29 in his last two games; 11+ rebounds six times; 27+ points + rebounds six times (thanks to that Game 2 buzzer beater!), including four games of 32+ – may be setting the stage for a fade opportunity, but with an all-timer in legitimate don’t mess with greatness mode, Philly’s difficulty in defending bigs ,  and KG’s P+R lines still in the 26/26.5 range, I’d hold off on betting on a correction coming anytime soon. Look To Fade: Jrue Holiday proved the most productive (if not always efficient) point guard in the east outside of Massachusetts in Round 1....

Contributed by Emile A (follow his prop advice on twitter @hardwoodhype) The NBA playoff field has been halved, and thus far the only certainty is that at the final buzzer in June we will have a new champion. We’ve lost a prohibitive favorite, though relentless nips from the injury bug foreshadowed the death knell. Neither the class of the NBA’s Western Conference nor the stars form South Beach endured great difficulty in punching their respective tickets for Round 2, while the aforementioned gale of heartache ripped through the Windy City. Both L.A. squads parlayed commanding 3-1 series leads into grind-it-out Game 7 victories and the Pacers disposed of (for now) SVG’s shorthanded-but-game Magic, while a Joe Johnson-led squad fared about as well as one would expect against the Celtics in May. The first of two installments on the opening round that was, the second round that is and an update on NBA prop culture: San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers Got It Made: Don’t overthink this. Tony Parker is now, by some margin, not only a catalyst but also the primary offensive threat on the presumed favorite out West. Look to ride: While Parker’s points + assists line has steadily climbed this season and now hovers around 28/28.5 after starting the new year in the vicinity of 22/23, it’s hardly inflated. Parker earned his MVP candidacy during the regular season and did little to tarnish it against the Utah Jazz in Round 1, with games of 27 and 28, along with an 18- 9 in Game 3. He’s fared no worse against the Clippers of late, notching 28+ P+A in three of five meetings the past two regular seasons (including a 30- 10 on February 18), with one of the shortfalls a 14-point, 9-assist...

Every pointspread is not created equally. A bookmaker’s confidence level varies by sport since he has to be willing to take the biggest bets in markets believed to be most efficient for long term profitability. However, efficiency doesn’t imply the numbers are air tight but rather indicates there is enough money being wagered on a game to limit overall liability. No one believes (nor will any bookmaker tell you) that the same amount of time is spent setting nightly NBA props as goes into establishing weekly NFL lines because the market cap isn’t close to the same size. Sharp bettors know they won’t be able to bet enough on props to make it their primary source of revenue so they don’t invest their time in a market that can’t sustain them. Given the 100x increase in volume a sportsbook sees on Browns vs Seahawks compared to O/U Kevin Durant made FG’s, we’d be crazy not to allocate our focus primarily to the NFL game in this example. Like any successful business, the majority of time is dedicated towards the most profitable pursuits, allowing us to create tighter markets where comfort levels increase with larger bet size. To understand the relative strength of a betting line from a bookmaker’s perspective, bettors need to look no further than the limits being offered to them on a particular event. Among the 4 major sports, pro football provides gamblers the greatest opportunity for large wagers because the market size for a single game is far superior to any other sport. As a result of more money being wagered on a sporting event (think Superbowl), it means each big bet that enters the pool creates a smaller ripple than a 10k bet would on a WNBA side when handle...

Click here to listen Breaking down the NHL and NBA playoff picture along with discussions of what the slow season for sports betting means to us in Vegas

  Hedging Sports Wagers, The GambLou perspective (for more great sports info follow him on twitter @Gamblou ) As discussed plenty in earlier GambLou blogs, we hold a substantial future ticket on the Kings to win the West which has now left us multiple options for profit. We purchase future tickets not necessarily with the intentions of actually cashing them, but rather to give ourselves a chance to lock in a playoff profit in some way, shape, or form. Let’s review our potential options if we’re sitting on a Kings ticket from the beginning of the postseason: Scenario 1: We hold our longshot ticket at 11-1 and allow the Kings to finish their work, win the conference, and move to the Stanley Cup Finals. Pretty straight forward with dynamic profit potential but also full of risk given our initial wager amount. Scenario 2: Hedge the future wager to insure bottom line profit and eliminate risk altogether. So (the standard $100.00 dollar example) we take the Yote’s in the series to win half of what our future ticket would pay risking $400 to win $600 . If the Yote’s win the series, we bottom line profit $500.00. If the Kings win at the original $100.00 wager for example, the gross win is $1,100.00 with a net profit of $700.00. Uncle Louie’s single point of focus is “Profitable Sports Gaming” not ‘all or nothing wagering’! While many would look at the Kings recent puck prowess and decide to ride the wager, we wouldn’t think of it nor should the seasoned sports investor. We have an opportunity to take a no risk profit of either 5 units or 7 units (we still profit more if the Kings win) in this particular scenario. We are business people here and have...

Contributed by JEFF WILLIAMS (follow him on twitter @SLIMrosco) Even though the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS struggled heading into Arizona, I really like the way this team is playing.  Over the weekend they lost 2 of 3 to a suddenly hot Astros team but rebounded last night with a solid offensive showing posting a 9-6 win.  Chase Field is known for producing runs when the spring/summer temperatures rise, and one thing you will learn about me, I LOVE to play games ‘OVER’ the total (insert square jokes here).  As a result, this series appears to be right in my wheel house as an offense lover’s dream.  Entering last night, a couple Cardinal players were really stroking the ball over their past 6; Furcal .417 with 10 hits and 7 runs scored, Jay 9 hits and a .409 average, Holliday 6 runs batted in and a .391 average, and Beltran .353 with 2 home runs and 8 runs batted in.  Last night they didn’t disappoint as Furcal, Holliday, and Beltran all went yard and combined to go 5-13 with 4 RBI’s and 3 runs scored. The Diamondbacks started their recent road trip off hot, but lost 5 of their last 6 games.  Battling some injuries and players not playing up to their full potential, the D-Backs are being overvalued right now especially in their own building and I believe you’ll have opportunity to “buy” the Cards at a reasonable price all series. OTHER TEAM ON MY RADAR: L.A. ANGELS Yes, we all know Pujols has finally hit his first home run on Sunday.  Big freakin deal.  What I think is the bigger story here, is that this team gets to head to Minnesota and play the Twins for three games for the 2nd time this year!...

Courtesy of Peej the Professor (follow him on twitter @Peej___) Whether it’s totals or picking straight up winners, playing staggered parlays can allow you to eliminate heavy juice in any moneyline sport. For this time of year, a methodology like this can easily be applied to both the NHL and MLB to avoid those somewhat dangerous chalky favorites. Sunday provided a great example to illustrate such an opportunity even if the parlay didn’t actually hit. Since we’re in the business of information exchange and building a thought process, here’s how the day would have unfolded: 3:20 pm Los Angeles Kings/ St Louis Blues 5 under -165 7:35 pm New Jersey Devils / Philadelphia Flyers 5.5 under -150 If we like to play both games under 5 and our unit is $1000, we would be risking $3150 to win $2000. If you’re a little more risk averse you could decide to play a two game parlay risking $1000 to win $1676.77. Now because the Kings/Blues game would be completed well before the Devils/Flyers dropped the puck, we had several options. If the first game went over 5, we could then play the 2nd game straight up risking $1500 to win $1000. In the end, we are risking $2500 instead of $3150 and we could break even on our dime units whereas if we split playing each game straight, the juice would make us nearly a half unit loser for the day. Here’s where things get interesting. If the first game comes in under the total, we have a decision to make before puck drops on the nightcap. We can of course leave the 2 team parlay and just risk the $1000 to win $1676.77.  However, for turning long term profit there will be plenty of...

  By James Kempton The final whistle sounded at Etihad last Monday and the stadium, sans 2,500 Manchester United fans, erupted to a chorus of cheers. Manchester City’s 1-0 win over their city neighbours and chief rivals for the EPL title ensures they are in control of their own destiny headed into the final two games. I could not help but think though as the players were lapping up the praise and adulation that it may be a bit premature since the race to EPL glory often has late twists and turns. In midweek, the eyes of Manchester centred on West London as Newcastle travelled to Chelsea. Never has a fifth plays sixth game been watched with such intensity as by the fans of the two Manchester clubs. If, as expected, Chelsea overcame Newcastle then the chance of Champions League qualification would be vanquished. That would have made Manchester City’s trip to the North East this Sunday much easier. However, the +600 dog Geordies did not read the script and go quietly into the night instead grabbing an amazing 2-0 win with the global fan base for Manchester United squarely behind them. Both goals in that win were scored by the hugely talented Papiss Cisse and his second goal is a contender for the best goal in EPL history. Partnering along side Cisse is Demba Ba and despite him going cold on the goalscoring front of late they will be a formidable partnership for City to contain. Man City is 9-5-4 on the road so can you really trust them as heavy favorites given the fact they only win half of their road games? Couple that with Newcastle’s 11-2-5 record and you create an awfully compelling match-up. However, all of you thinking of wagering on Newcastle this...

Contributed by NBA Prop Wizard Emile A (follow him on twitter @hardwoodhype) At playoff time, increased emphasis is placed on the ability to recognize strategic shortcomings and adjust decisively, without the luxury of protracted deliberation (aka s**t or get off the pot for those scoring at home). Tweaks are made from one game to the next, either in the interest of exploiting a newfound mismatch, offsetting an opponent’s advantage, or simply shaking up the status quo. A coach, unable to allow a trend to fully develop must use whatever information he deems most valuable – be it from the team’s most recent outing, the regular season, or a particular head-to-head matchup through the years and shift on the fly. This predicament in which NBA coaches find themselves this time of year mirrors the cat and mouse game between bettors and bookmakers. In the time one might require to identify, research, and confirm an emerging trend during the regular season, said trend has often come and gone. This phenomenon extends, in terms of velocity and magnitude, to the shifts made by bookmakers on wagering lines, particularly (thanks to the market’s relative illiquidity) player props. As we have seen from the outset, in the sportsbooks’ quest to simultaneously maintain an accurate market in a “new season” without straying too far from equilibrium, prop lines in the postseason are prone to considerable volatility. No in-depth discussion on the subject of sports wagering can go very far without touching on the subject of line volatility, or “getting the best of the number.” Whether on this site, others similar to it, podcasts (a frequent topic on Chad Millman’s Behind The Bets pod) or in conversation, much is made of understanding the significance of seemingly minor moves in not only a betting...

Contributed by @kyderbyjay Follow him on twitter for great race day insight and analysis The 2012 Kentucky Derby is upon us, and it figures to be as wide open a renewal as ever. As such, the wagering opportunities are fantastic, and, with wise selections, the chance for a nice payday is good. What follows is my biased and only slightly educated look at the field, but first, a word about what I look for in a Derby contender. The important thing is to envision how the race will be run. The Derby is unique in that the field is extremely large; a twenty-horse field is unheard of in any other North American race. As such, the first 30 yards are a very important part of the race. The old adage is that the race can’t be won then, but it sure as hell can be lost. Because of all the traffic, positioning in the early part of the race is important, with the speed horses cruising to the front, the stalkers looking to get a good position and save some ground, and the deep closers content to set in the back of the pack, waiting for one long run at the end of the race. One key thing to keep in mind is that horses rarely win the Derby on the front end; too many speed horses usually leads to a tiring speed duel. Horses that look great on paper that may have gotten away with wire-to-wire jobs in the smaller fields aren’t going to be so fortunate in the Derby. As for deep closers, they don’t often win either, as the task of passing 17 or 18 horses is a lot tougher than passing 5 or 6. That’s why I usually lean towards stalkers...