Click here to listen Riley and I delve into what the month of April has told us about baseball so far this season and what we can expect heading towards the dog days of summer

Click here to listen The 3HL crew and I talk Predators Stanley Cup chances, NBA playoffs, and the Sarah J Phillips story that’s taking the sports world by storm

Contribution courtesy of @SportsCheetah Last night Jared Weaver took the mound for the 9-15 Los Angeles Angels against the Minnesota Twins. For those that had their heads buried in the sand (or glued to playoff NBA or NHL action), the end result was a no-hitter. Personally, I believe this no-no came at just the right time for a team rapidly falling out of contention in the AL West only 24 games into the young season. The Angles opened up their check books this off-season and inked starting pitcher C.J. Wilson to a 5-year, $77.5 million contract. As if that weren’t enough, they also signed one of the greatest hitters of all-time to the second biggest contract in sports history, snatching Albert Pujols up for a bargain basement price of $254 million over 10 years. Unfortunately for the Halos, this “throw money at the biggest free-agents” strategy has yet to pay dividends. In fact, Pujols is having the worst start to any season in his 12-year career and the stats say its not even close. One guy can’t really miss being that close to Anheuser Busch and the Arch that much can he? A little less than 20% into the season, in a month where historically he has been at his most efficient, here are Pujols’ YTD averages compared to his career: .208/.252/.287 BA/OBP/SLG in 2012, compared to .327/.418/.612 hitter. Not only is Pujols struggling to get hits, but he has hit 0 HR’s through 101 plate appearances and has only walked 6 times while striking out 14. Before this season, Pujols walked almost 1,000 times compared to just 700 strikeouts while hitting a HR every 14.17 at-bats. The $254 million dollar man isn’t the only one struggling in the OC however and the Angels...

by NBA insider Rob Perez (follow him on twitter @world_wide_wob) Looking for more NBA analysis from Rob? Click here to visit his blog   San Antonio Spurs We all know how good San Antonio is and has been for the past decade. My question: Does Vegas know? Judging by where they’re priced the Spure offer more value to win the Western Conference than the public darling Oklahoma City Thunder currently do. Considering their odds to take home the title, there’s a ton of value on a side that will have homecourt throughout the Western conference playoffs. In my opinion betting on the Spurs to win a single series makes ZERO sense. If you are confident in the Spurs this postseason, your best bet is to take them to win the NBA Title. I do NOT think they will win the championship, but at current market price, you can optimize the value on them to just win the West. The opponent the Spurs will potentially face in the NBA Finals will NOT be heavy favorites even if it’s now a safe assumption that Miami will represent the East in the finals. Oklahoma City Thunder The “Stay Away” bet of the 2012 NBA Playoffs for me are the Oklahoma City Thunder. Don’t get me wrong, the Thunder are a solid basketball team, but I personally have them ranked as the 3rd, maybe even 4th best team in their own conference — let alone in the NBA with MIA in the East. Here’s my problem with betting OKC: they are Square’s weapon of choice. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka all should have their own SportsCenter segment. They are incredibly flashy, young, and high-powered. Think of the Thunder as the NBA’s version of the Green Bay Packers: no high- matter who they play, or where they play them, they...

We invited resident NBA prop guru @HardwoodHype back to talk NBA playoffs and here was what he came up with. Throughout the quest for the Larry O’Brien trophy, he’ll be making weekly visits to share his perspective on attacking the inefficient prop markets.   First and foremost: when betting an over line, MAKE SURE YOUR PLAYER WILL BE ON THE FLOOR. More than any other factor, this is vital. There is a single unifying trait among basketball players that put up numbers: They have to be on the floor to do so but keep in mind all playing time is not created equally. How often does a player (superstar or not) see superstar minutes (35+)? Take a look at the minutes players logged during the abbreviated regular season and realize minutes may actually go up this time of year as coaches have no reason to rest major contributors.  Also, as prop lines tend to fall in line with season averages, pay attention to the manner in which a player receives his playing time. Better to align yourself with a 33-minute per game guy whose playing time rarely deviates by more than a minute or two game-to-game than a guy averaging the same 33, but seeing anywhere from 24 to 42 minutes of burn a night dictated by the situation. Is a player chronically foul-prone? In honor of the opening weeks of the 2009-10 season, I refer to this as the Greg Oden Principle. Decidedly pro-Oden at the time (I still would be, if only…), I fell into several over bets involving the snakebitten big man in the 11.5 range for points + rebounds. Easy money, right? RIGHT….y’know, until the inevitable “two fouls, done for the quarter” stroll to the pine at the 7:00 mark...

This time of year we’re all itching to get our football fix in any capacity. Whether its searching for an angle on draft props, anticipating situational spots based on the NFL schedule release, or mulling copious future book options every gambler is getting involved. With the recent release of a few high profile college football win totals at an offshore book, it only made sense for me to try and break down my thought process when it comes to setting an opening number. Every bookmaker handle’s this process differently but for my purposes I try to rate each game 0 to 10 with a 10 meaning a virtual lock and 0 implying it will take a Stanford over USC type upset to grab the win.  At the end of the process, I’ll add up my total and attach appropriate juice based on intangibles, public perception, and overall gut feel. Let’s use the upcoming schedule for USC to illustrate my process since the Men of Troy have already been crowned by some as de facto national champions before the season even starts. For ease of reading, my probability of winning each game is bolded to the right of every opponent. 2012 USC FOOTBALL SCHEDULE Sept. 1 — Hawaii (10) Sept. 8 — vs. Syracuse (@ E. Rutherford, N.J.) (9) Sept. 15 — at Stanford (8) Sept. 22 — California (10) Oct. 4 (Th.) — at Utah (8) Oct. 13 — at Washington (7) Oct. 20 — Colorado (10) Oct. 27 — at Arizona (9) Nov. 3 — Oregon (5) Nov. 10 — Arizona State (10) Nov. 17 — at UCLA (9) Nov. 24 — Notre Dame (8) The total in bold adds up to an overall rating of 103, or in simper terms 10.3 wins...

By Soccer Guru James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) Chelsea travels to the majestic Camp Nou with a slender 1-0 advantage gained  in last week’s first leg. The Blues were able to escape that game without conceding a pivotal away goal which could end up being the difference should Barcelona only beat Chelsea by one goal in today (assuming Chelsea isn’t shut out). The first matchup was dominated by Barcelona as they controlled the pace and tempo of the game from the opening kickoff. Barcelona wasted numerous opportunities in front of goal and could have run out comfortable winners if they’d converted around the goal mouth. However, they didn’t and as Barcelona boss ‘Pep’ Guardiola quite rightly said “if the game was decided by possession stats we would never lose a game, it is about putting the ball into the back of the net. They did and we didn’t.” Very rarely, before such an important Champions League encounter, will both teams face huge fixtures in their domestic campaigns like Chelsea and Barcelona did on Saturday. I was fortunate to be at The Emirates Stadium last Saturday to see Chelsea earn a 0-0 draw against Arsenal utilizing a quality display of counter attacking football. They sat off the hosts, as they will on Tuesday, springing lively when the opportunity arose. In anticipation of today’s showdown, Chelsea boss Roberto Di Matteo rested his whole midfield quartet to save their legs. Di Matteo is acutely aware of the hard work that those four will be required to undertake in this second leg if they’re to make the 1 goal differential hold-up in hostile territory. Conversely, Barcelona was not afforded the same luxury since the magnitude of ‘El Classico’ (the nickname for their game against Real Madrid)...

Written by Emile Avanessian (follow him on twitter for more NBA insight @hardwoodhype) In April 2009, I was extremely “bullish on the Bulls” in their opening-round series against the defending world champion Boston Celtics and LOVED (from the Bulls’ perspective) any matchup involving Derrick Rose. Before Game 1 in Boston, having gotten down on the Bulls in every way possible (money line, teaser and spread, which I believe was +8.5), I still felt I’d not thrown enough support behind D-Rose. As much fun as they are (and you’ve not lived until you’ve been emotionally invested in Tony Scheffler’s third target on a Monday night), I’d never been a big believer in proposition bets as a means to consistent profitability. However, wanting to put more money where my mouth was, I plunked down a few bucks on Rose’s “points + assists” exceeding 23.5. The cash was never in danger, as Rose torched the C’s for 36 and 11 in an OT win. As that Bulls and Celtics game wound down, LeBron James and his top-seeded Cavaliers were prepping to tip off their postseason at home against the Detroit Pistons. Looking at the line before tipoff, I was (in hindsight, mistakenly) apprehensive about laying 13.5 points. Shuddering at the thought of getting financially and emotionally invested in the game only to watch LBJ slap the Pistons with 35-10-8 in a 103-90 win, I knew that there was NO DAMN WAY LeBron would lay an egg to kick off what was to be his coronation. Thinking back to the types of statements that Magic, Michael and Larry made to kick off the playoffs with top-seeded teams, I bought into the idea that LeBron would follow suit and rack up more than 42.5 points, rebounds and assists. While the...

It should come as no big surprise that road teams are having tremendous success so far through the first round of the 2012 NHL Playoffs (We highlighted 1st round trends back on 4/11). Through the first 32 games, teams playing on the highway are 21-11 netting bettors $1,519 assuming a base unit of $100.  In an article published by ESPN back on April 9th, they rated the top 5 home ice advantages in all of hockey and those teams alone have combined to go 3-7 so it just goes to show that no one is safe in the confines of their own arena. Below you’ll find the breakdown of every game through the first 32 and while the results may surprise, it’s hard to argue with their early profitability. (All data courtesy of covers.com)   Eastern Conference Western Conference Money Road Wins Money Road Wins Flyers/Penguins $342 3 Kings/Canucks $280 3 Senators/Rangers $41 2 Redwings/Predators $277 3 Capitals/Bruins $29 2 Blackhawks/Coyotes $261 3 Devils/Panthers $44 2 Blues/Sharks $245 3 Total $456 9 Total $1,063 12 Below you’ll find details by series with individual game results. Keep in mind this may be as much an anomaly as anything else so don’t forget the basics of handicapping in lieu of blindly betting road team’s moving forward. Road Team Result Price Road Team Result Price Game 1 Flyers W 167 Game 1 Kings W 142 Game 2 Flyers W 168 Game 2 Kings W 142 Game 3 Penguins L (100) Game 3 Canucks L (104) Game 4 Penguins W 107 Game 4 Canucks W 100 Total 3-1 342 Total 3-1 280 Road Team Result Price Road Team Result Price Game 1 Senators L (100) Game 1 Red Wings L (100) Game 2 Senators W 145 Game 2...

Everyone who successfully bets baseball knows the long term key to profitability is identifying value wherever it presents itself.  Whether its a total, side, or run line, there are always spots for the sharp gambler to gain an edge over those of us on the bookmaking side.  The truth is we as bookmakers have to line every game each night while the bettor only needs to find one game where he or she believes they can find variance between true odds and the market.  Astute players have lists of pitchers and umpires they’ll look to bet on (or against) with their primary real goal finding value in a commodity long before the book does. Matchups are a key component in sports, there’s no disputing that aspect. However, there are games where the match-up advantage is effectively priced into the line eliminating the perceived edge and yet there are also spots where it isn’t accounted for accurately. When it comes to past performance of certain teams, it’s not always indicative of the future. The Dodgers improbable start serves as a poster child for illustrating this concept because a further examination of their hot start reveals they were aided by 2 series’ against the Padres and one against the offensively challenged Pirates.  As a result, gamblers looked to capitalize when LA headed to Milwaukee and have reaped benefits of fading LA each of the last 2 nights. When you break down pitching match-ups, dig into what the past history is telling you. Where was the game played, when was the game played, was it during a breakout season etc? I can’t emphasize the fact starting pitching is only one facet of betting baseball since bullpens and offenses tend to play in the outcome of a game...

Click here to listen Talking ongoing NHL futures adjustments, Week 1 NFL lines, and TV superstardom for the 3HL reality tour.