by Matthew Ries (follow him on twitter @Matadoor00 ) I failed to see the hype behind another Miami team back on opening night so I wrote this while I waited for my MLB season to kick off when the Texas Rangers opened against the White Sox. My purpose wasn’t to bombard with stats or introduce a new “can’t lose system”, but rather to share a quick recap of my experience in sports betting and get others to reflect before embarking on another exciting 162 game journey (or a bankroll buster for those inexperienced gamblers betting baseball for the first time).  Looking back, growth and development of the sports gambler takes on phases very similar to our own life cycle. • Phase 1 – Infancy Many gamblers get started betting games with family, friends, and coworkers. Stakes start with anything from meals, beers, or miniscule amounts most of us won’t miss from our wallets if we lose. During this stage of betting, there’s no record keeping or research since you rely on gut feel and bragging rights to indicate the overall level of success.  If you ever ask a gambler in this stage about their track record, they all say they win much more than they lose. As you become more successful in other facets of life and begin growing up, the natural desire is to strive for success in gambling the same way as the rest of life.  After all, how tough is it to pick winners when bigger stakes are involved? • Phase 2 – Teens Just like in real life, this era of betting development is filled with the aches, pains, and awkwardness of being a teenager. Here you begin to bet more per game and the volume of games played...

by resident soccer expert James Kempton. Follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro The ‘Magic of the FA Cup’ takes centre stage this weekend as this famous competition pushes the regularly scheduled EPL to the backburner. For those of you not familiar with this competition, it has a mystique about it unprecedented anywhere in world soccer. Every football club playing within the English Football Association pyramid system can enter the competition. As a result, it attracts entries ranging from small market teams who average attendance is 15-20 spectators per game all the way through to the top of the food chain and Manchester United who draws 75,000 screaming fans to Old Trafford every home game. The Preliminary rounds start at the very beginning of the season in late August with the ‘big EPL boys’ entering the mix during the Third Round Proper in January. Every small team dreams of winning their way through to that round and then pulling a big club out of the hat since that is the very magic this grand old competition is built on because the luck of the draw prevails without a bracket or seeding. All the clubs participating in each round are given a number on a ball and placed into a velvet bag where they’re drawn out one by one to create fixtures. This repeats all the way until the Semi Finals when the winners of the Quarterfinal pairings progress to the final stages. I suppose the reason I’ve given such a lengthy explanation of the way this competition is structured is because in past years its value has diminished across England. With the vast wealth bestowed on teams for staying in the Premiership outweighing the lure of European entrance (guaranteed for the winner), many smaller EPL teams...

Click link to listen http://bit.ly/ImdS06 Talking Stanley Cup futures, opening series prices, and potential value buys in the first round of the NHL playoffs

Click here to listen Predators fever is sweeping Nashville (not really) but we talk Stanley Cup odds and first round match-ups. It’s never a segment with 3HL though unless Clay proclaims himself a Czar, this time of the...

Just because trends develop over time doesn’t mean they’re indicative of what the future may hold so handicap accordingly. However, below are 2 years of aggregated data from the 2010 and 2011 first rounds.  Some of the results are coincidence, some are anomalies, and some paint a picture of what we can expect in this year’s round of 16. Don’t predicate any of your betting decisions on a single trend over a 2 year sample size of 98 games but keep in mind history can repeat itself and some of these numbers are hard to overlook. Series Betting The last 2 years, teams that win Game 1 in their first round playoff series are 7-9 so sometimes waiting to bet a series price can offer better value Western Conference teams who lost Game 1 were 4-0 for the series in 2011 while they were 0-4 in 2010. The East hasn’t quite been the same wild ride as last year the loser of Game 1 went 1-3 compared to 2-2 in 2010. Road Warriors When searching for live dogs, take a look at teams playing on the highway to offer solid value. The normal home/road adjustment is between .50 to .60 cents despite road teams compiling a winning record over the last 2 years. 2010: Road teams were 27-22 (13-11 in the Eastern Conference and 14-11 in the Western Conference) 2011: Road teams were 24-25  (12-14 in the Eastern Conference and 12-11 in the Western Conference) One Goal Decisions  Those looking to take the “juicy” puckline odds on favorites need to keep in mind that 1 goal outcomes abound so there’s a reason teams laying 1.5 are often +200 and dogs carry tags of -200 or more. 2010: 22 of 49 (45%) 1st round games were...

Juice and your bankroll are not a match made in heaven. The tendencey for gamblers is to assume a slight up tick in winning % is neccesary as you lay increased juice however very few understand exactly what each incremental price point is actually worth.  Since we’re just getting started on the 162 game marathon that is the major league baseball season and with NHL playoffs rapidly approaching, it’s imperative to understand what your winning % must become in order to turn a profit every time you lay above (or below) the traditional -110. Success hinges on knowing the exact implications of each bet and the table below is applicable to all moneyline wagers. Keep in mind the percentages included just create a break even proposition and illustrate why it’s so important to find a reduced juice book whenever possible. Favorite Winning % Underdog Winning % -110 52.38% +110 47.62% -115 53.49% +115 46.51% -120 54.55% +120 45.45% -125 55.56% +125 44.44% -130 56.52% +130 43.48% -135 57.45% +135 42.55% -140 58.33% +140 41.67% -145 59.18% +145 40.82% -150 60.00% +150 40.00% -155 60.78% +155 39.22% -160 61.54% +160 38.46% -165 62.26% +165 37.74% -170 62.96% +170 37.04% -175 63.64% +175 36.36% -180 64.29% +180 35.71% -185 64.91% +185 35.09% -190 65.52% +190 34.48% -200 66.67% +200 32.26% -220 68.75% +220 31.25% -240 70.59% +240 29.41% -250 71.43% +250...

Click here to listen Breaking down the emerging NBA playoff picture including 1 side I think offers a ton of value in the Western conference futures market. Always time for Preds talk as well with the NHL playoff field already set and only seeding left to be...

Hit him up on twitter with any golf questions @fullmarx12 Masters Preview Part II: Finding Value in Matchups Yesterday we examined the pre-tournament futures market, where the big score can be as tantalizing as it is elusive. In head-to-head matchups, though, cashing a ticket is far more attainable. Here are some keys to breaking down the H2H matchup market for The Masters this week: Develop a Gameplan It is easy to become overwhelmed upon perusing a full slate of golf betting options – first round, tournament matchups, top senior, top Australian, top player named after an animal, etc. The key is to put into place some guidelines and develop a plan that will help isolate lines with the most potential value. One rule that I tend to follow is to avoid single-round matchups early in the event, instead focusing on full tournament matchups. Much like betting a single NBA playoff game versus backing a team for a seven-game series, the prevailing thought is that the better golfer will rise to the top more consistently over the course of four rounds than across a single day. One-round matchups tend to have higher variance as a single shot or hole can decide a winner, and a variable outside of the bettor’s control – i.e. weather delays – can have a much more profound impact. Once play gets to the weekend, and golfers are in twosomes playing with someone at or near their same cumulative score, single-round matchup wagers can become more viable. Similarly, I avoid backing some of the juicier favorites in H2H matchups, especially in a smaller field event like The Masters. Unlike a Saints-Colts SNF game, the talent gap between these golfers is razor thin. A matchup line of -150 implies that the favored...

Follow our golf expert on twitter @fullmarx12 Masters Preview: Taking Stock of the Futures Market Azaleas, instrumental music, a revival of the term “patrons” and the hushed tones of Jim Nantz. Yes, Masters Week is upon us and golf’s first major is officially up for grabs. This week brings golf bettors of all shapes and sizes out of the woodwork, eager to predict the man to don the coveted green jacket Sunday night. This tournament is particularly attractive to bettors for its (relative) lack of variables – it is the only major championship contested at the same venue each year, lending credence to historical results/data, and it has the smallest field of any major. While the U.S. and British Opens routinely have 140+ participants, this year’s Masters field of 97 is actually higher than usual. Factoring out amateurs and older past champions unlikely to contend, you are left with one of the smallest fields of “realistic contenders” of any tournament played this year. Finding an Edge As with most sports in the internet age, golf handicappers have no shortage of information at their fingertips. The key is deciphering which facts give you an edge and which are already priced into the line. In researching this event, one of the first tidbits you will come across is that no one has won The Masters in their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Fade the 14 first-timers in the field, right? It’s never that easy. Sadly, you are not the only one to come across this information, and the books have already factored this information into the price they are offering for Masters rookies like Keegan Bradley and Webb Simpson. So the key becomes finding an edge that the books may not be as aware...

We hear about the growth of fantasy sports all the time as fans look for ways to increase involvement during each sport season.  Rarely is their a positive correlation between life as a fantasy owner and winning percentage as a gambler except for the summer months.  Finding undervalued (and overvalued) starting pitchers in baseball is synonymous with turning a profit because staying one step ahead of the linesmaker creates positive expectations.  Every year there are a handful of pitchers who burst onto the scene and leave a windfall of cash in their wake for loyal backers.  Unlike other sports, hitting 52.5% isn’t required to be successful when you isolate an arm that goes 10-10 at an average price of +135 since he yields a greater return than an elite arm who rattles off an 18-9 campaign with an average closing price of -200.  Is isolating a pitching mismatch the only thing you need to be a successful baseball bettor? Of course not but if you can enter a seemingly 50/50 proposition with a dog of +150 continually ignored by the bookmaker you’re off to a great start before every first pitch. It goes without saying the arms you’d look to bet on will be value buys for fantasy owners as well while the starters on the overvalued list are pitchers people will overdraft this season and headaches better left to your competition. A quick glance at the list of most profitable arms in 2011 reveals some obvious names like Cy Young award winners Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander but how many people out there knew Jason Marquis and Aaron Harang netted the 9th and 10th greatest profit among pitchers starting at least 20 games? Most Profitable Arms Name Team Team W-L $ 1 Ian...

By resident EPL Expert James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro ) Over the next eight EPL games, five teams (Blackburn, Bolton, QPR, Wigan and Wolves) will battle to retain EPL status for next season.  The sums of cash involved in the EPL ensure the teams and players will be put under immense pressure to perform just to maintain their place in Europe’s most prestigious soccer league.  From our standpoint as bettors is how can we use relegation as a useful handicapping angle in each team’s quest for survival. The common perception is that if you are being chased by a lion you’ll sprint a lot faster than if you are running without the fear of imminent death! Those principles are often applied to professional sports betting through the ‘need to win’ theory. You hear phrases such as “it means more to team A than to team B” or “They will be more focused for it today than their opposition who is squarely in the middle of the pack”. However, these thoughts creep into the minds of the odds makers too so you will see lines tighten for no apparent reason other than teams at the bottom of the ladder are in need to win mode. Like all good financial disclaimers I’ll state now that past performance is no indicator of future returns. I broke down the performances of the bottom five placed teams from the last five EPL seasons over their final eight games of each respective season. The obvious perception is that fear of relegation will lead to a greater average points haul per game. You would expect with the trap door to potential financial oblivion for both club and player that their results would improve. However, of the 25 campaigns analyzed,...

Click here to listen It’s the time of year to talk MLB regular season win totals, Stanley Cup futures, and upcoming Final 4