March 28 with 104.5 the Zone – Nashville Mar29

March 28 with 104.5 the Zone – Nashville...

Click here to listen The impact of SEC sports bettors in Vegas, Final 4 breakdowns, a rare tangent into the WWE, and modest movement in the college football futures market

Race for the chase: Western Conference Mar28

Race for the chase: Western Conference...

Team PTS GR Home Away Remaining Schedule Chicago 93 5 2 3 Stl, @Nas, Min, @Min, @Det San Jose 88 6 2 4 @Ana, @ Phx, Dal, @Dal, @Lak, Lak Dallas 87 6 2 4 @Edm, @Van, @SJ, SJ, @Nas, Stl Phoenix 87 5 3 2 SJ, Ana, Clb, @Stl, @Min Los Angeles 86 6 2 4 @Cal, @Edm, @Min, Edm, SJ, @SJ Colorado 86 4 2 2 @Van, @Cal, Clb, Nas Calgary 85 5 4 1 Lak, Col, @Van, Van, Ana Peej’s Pucks (follow him on twitter @peej___ ) Going into tonight’s action, here  are the up to the minute standings in the Western conference where 7 teams are competing for 4 playoff spots (closer to 6 for 3 as the only way the Blackhawks fall out of the picture is with an epic late season collapse). Chicago It will be interesting to see how the Hawks adjust to life without Toews and Keith.  Grabbing points in 6 of their last 7 has virtually put them in the playoffs.   The upcoming home and home with the Wild will certainly go a long way in securing their 6th spot in the standings.  Why is finishing 6th so important in the conference? Whoever falls here will take on the champion of the Pacific division, the closest thing the NHL has to a season long grease fire. San Jose While currently in the 3rd spot after their win Monday night over Colorado and leading the Pacific division, the Sharks tenuous hold could change by the minute.   With 4 of the 5 teams in the Pacific division within 2 points of each other it’s anyone’s guess as to who comes out on top of the division.   The Sharks are on a 6 – 3 – 1...

Race for the chase: NHL’s Eastern Conference Mar27

Race for the chase: NHL’s Eastern Conference...

Team PTS GR Home Away Remaining Schedule New Jersey 90 6 4 2 Chi, TB, @Car, NYI, @Det, Ott Ottawa 88 5 2 3 @Phi, @NYI, Car, Bos, @NJ Washington 84 6 3 3 Buf, @Bos, Mon, @TB, Fla, @NYR Buffalo 84 6 2 4 @Was, Pit, @Tor, Tor, @Phi, @Bos Winnipeg 78 6 2 4 NYR, @Car, @TB, @Fla, @NYI, TB Peej’s Pucks (Follow him on twitter @peej___ ) Going into Tuesday night’s action, here  are the up to the minute standings in the Eastern conference: 5 teams competing for 3 playoff spots and here’s the breakdown as we approach crunch time of the NHL season. New Jersey NJ will have to find a way to put the puck in the net if they plan to make any noise in the playoffs.  However, their 4 pt edge with 4 home games remaining (20 – 13 – 4 at home) has me believing they’ll get into the postseason.  The biggest remaining question is who their opponent will be in the first round but unless the neutral zone trap comes back into fashion or Marty Brodeur finds the fountain of youth, this team can’t make a deep run. Ottawa The Sens are definitely in a battle for the postseason with 3 out of their final 5 games away from the nations capital (18  – 13 – 6 away) Before back to back impressive wins over the beast in the east Pittsburgh and Winnipeg on the highway, the Senators playoff hopes were on life support.  If they can find a way to carry this momentum into their final stretch coupled with a healthy Craig Anderson between the pipes, don’t count them out as a sleeper on the bottom half of the draw. Washington If the caps...

Insider Trading: Bookmaking and Gambling Mar26

Insider Trading: Bookmaking and Gambling...

 

Unbalanced Books

The term reverse line movement carries a ton of weight among novice handicappers. Bettors throw the phrase around regularly and too frequently use the abstract concept as their primary justification for walking to the window to make a bet.  While it’s true that every line move tells a story, each story isn’t the same with every line move.  Both gamblers and bookmakers have different motives for their actions and in the biggest games, the net impact of each half point can be worth millions worldwide. Understanding why the line is moving and whose moving it is imperative if you’re going to let it influence your betting behavior. Betting percentages provide a tool for handicappers to gauge how the public is betting a game.  This shouldn’t come as profound wisdom but splits should serve as just one component of a well rounded breakdown for each game.  When you’re trying to interpret what the data tells you, understand lines move off of the money wagered rather than the sheer number of public bets coming in on a particular side.  One of the most important bookmaking principles to understand is that EVERY DOLLAR IN THE SPORTS BETTING MARKETPLACE IS NOT CREATED EQUALLY. When a book is overloaded with public money on a side, bookmakers will still move the line towards side receiving attention from sharps.  Regular season games provide a much different illustration of how books move lines when compared with their postseason counterparts inevitably drawing higher betting volumes from increased fan interest. By moving the line towards the sharp side, other professionals looking for the same number are unable to get down at the best of the number. Public bettors are not price sensitive and generally don’t pay attention to the difference in laying -3.5 or...

March 21 with 104.5 theZone – Nashville Mar22

March 21 with 104.5 theZone – Nashville...

Click here to listen Trying to help Nashville make sense of the NHL playoff race and where the Preds fit into the mix with Radulov’s return.  What would a future’s discussion be without addressing the impact of Sean Payton’s suspension and Peyton Manning’s signing in...

March 21 with Sports56 – Memphis Mar22

March 21 with Sports56 – Memphis...

Click here to listen Breaking down the impact of recent developments in the NFL and what they mean to the future markets.  We also explore the impact Zack Randolph has on the Memphis Grizzlies playoffs...

Manchester City vs Chelsea Mar21

Manchester City vs Chelsea...

by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro)   There is no place like home for Manchester City this season in the EPL as their record at Etihad reads played 14 and won 14. They return home tonight for this key game four points adrift of rivals Manchester United in the chase for the league title. Chelsea’s record on the highway is mediocre managing just 5 wins from their 14 games away from Stamford Bridge. A simple glance at the stats tells you this is a sure fire win for Man City but recent events at both clubs and current form tell us it won’t be quite that simple. City has not performed well lately when it comes to their travels compiling 3 defeats in their last 5 EPL road games allowing bitter rival Manchester United take hold of the table. Oddly enough the shaky road form isn’t evident in home performances as they remain perfect in their own building. However some of this recent success is attributed to the fact they haven’t hosted a team in the top half of the table since January 22nd. City has a bizarre locker room mix of good solid professionals and complete headcases. There is massive pressure on the team today and with personalities like Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez anything is possible. Strong rumors already swirl of significant dressing room unrest over manager Mancini’s apparent leniency towards to the outlandish actions, on and off field, of Balotelli.  Macini’s rigorous training regime also appears to be taking a toll on the player’s legs as the side just hasn’t had the same explosion they did earlier in the year. One more bad result today and I sense the dressing room would be dangerously close to imploding. Whether or...

Seven Signs

With the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament behind us, a majority of the casual fans will go back to enjoying college basketball from the confines of their neighborhood watering hole or living room.  Memories were made and the indelible images of last second victory and excruciating heartbreak become a fabric of the most recent Las Vegas sojourn.  After 4 days of living and breathing the gambler’s dream, only a select few can call themselves sportsbook aficionados.  Here’s the official checklist to call yourself a true sin city regular (or degnerate) depending on your vocabulary. 1) You know the closest eatery to every sportsbook: Whether you’re at Mirage, Bellagio, or the Wynn, knowing exactly what your gameday meal consists of eliminates one decision from an already stressful day.  Most importantly you know how long it takes to order and eat so you can minimize the amount of time lost from watching games. 2) Decisions on where to spend the day watching games are predicated purely on how far the sportsbook is from the parking garage and/or hotel rooms.  No one wants a long walk when it’s 7:30 in the morning and your first order of business is to study the boards for that soft pointspread. 3) Like Shakespeare to the soliloquy, you’ve committed to memory the most important piece of information for the day: betting index numbers.  The last thing you want is to be the guy in the room who walks up to the window and brings the line to a screeching halt because you don’t remember all 4 legs of your robin. 4) Not only have you come to know the name of each cocktail waitress, you also know her schedule (in a non-stalkerish kind of way).  Familial ties exist because you know her kid’s birthday’s,...

Round 1 stat pack Mar15

Round 1 stat pack

All stats courtesy of http://www.spreadapedia.com/ Follow them on twitter @spreadapedia I went through our database and looked for situational stats for the 1st round of games. The most interesting thing that stood out is how prevalent Overs seem to be in the 1st round.  While a lot of the ATS data consistently returned around 50%, Over/Unders heavily weighted to one outcome. All stats date back to 2005 #8 vs. #9 seeds in Round 1 are 14-12-2 ATS, but 19-8-1 Over Double Digit favorites in Round 1 are 79-4 straight up, 40-41-2 ATS, and 48-34-1 O/U SEC teams who are seeded between #5 and #9 in the 1st round are only 8-6-1 ATS but 11-3-1 Over When the O/U is less than or equal to 132, SEC teams seeded between #5 and #9 are 7-2-1 ATS and 8-2 Over the 1st round. #7 vs. #10 game, when the Over/Under is less than or equal to 133, the Over is 14-3 The last two teams to be #1 seeds out of the SEC were Kentucky in 2010 and Florida in 2007.  Billy Donovan’s Florida squad went 4-2 ATS, with 6 Overs and 0 Unders on their way to the National Championship.  Calipari’s 2010 Kentucky squad lost in the Elite Eight, but not before compiling a 3-1 ATS and O/U record. Between 2010 Kentucky and 2007 Florida, SEC #1 Seeds holds a 9-1 ATS and 9-1 O/U record in the Tournament. –    Over/Under records by Major Conference in the Opening Games (1st Round)…. –        ACC……………….25-12 –        Big 12……………24-14 –        Big East…………32-22 –        Big Ten………….26-13-1 –        C-USA……………10-2 –        Pac-10…………..21-10 –        SEC……………..25-8-1 #3 seeds are 17-11 ATS in the 1st round but double digit #3 seed favorites are 11-6 ATS.  Single digit...

March 14 with 104.5 the Zone – Nashville Mar15

March 14 with 104.5 the Zone – Nashville...

Click here to listen Leave it to the 3HL gang to want NFL futures to dominate discussion on the eve of the dance.  Under seeded team in the dance?  They just happen to reside right in Nashville and it’s not the...

March 14 with Sports56 – Memphis Mar15

March 14 with Sports56 – Memphis...

Click here to listen Breaking down the field when it comes to early line movement and the sleeper potential of the Memphis Tigers