by Michael Dugan (follow him on twitter @jbplayhouse) The NCAA tournament is perhaps the best three-week stretch on the American sporting calendar. The first Thursday and Friday, in particular, are spectacular. They’ve come to represent a de facto national holiday, without a doubt 2 of the least productive days in the United States, as millions suddenly fall prey to a 48-hour bug that forces them to stay home and watch basketball all day.  For the other brave souls who miraculously make it to work, productivity is negative since they spend the day streaming games, using the following Monday to make up for the accounting errors made during games. For years now, a select group of buddies and I meet in Las Vegas for that opening weekend in what has become our own little tradition. While it certainly has become a bit harder as we’ve grown older, had children, and moved to different corners of the country, the core of the group remains intact. After each trip we all leave town with another year’s worth of memories, the residuals of a massive hangover and the promise to do it all again the following season. Rarely, however, do we leave with any actual money in our pocket. So while I’d love share all the secrets we have learned and all the massive hauls each one of use have taken home over the years, I can’t do that. The only thing I can do is share five sure-fire ways to stay in the red while betting on the NCAA tournament: * Plying yourself with booze for 16 straight hours 4 days in a row Sure, it’s fun and undoubtedly good for you, but, surprisingly, there seems to be an adverse relationship between consuming large amounts of alcohol...

I’ve said for years if bookmakers and gamblers were involved in ranking teams we’d have much more accurate polls despite the NCAA’s vehement disagreement.  If Vegas seeded the field, things might look quite a bit different than how the selection committee slotted 68 teams this past Sunday. Keep in mind the seeds assume Syracuse still had the services of Fab Melo when the field was announced. The matchup’s below would carry point spreads consistent with traditional 3 vs 14 match-ups unlike the Georgetown vs Belmont game where the teams actually rate 15 and 16 respectively in our current power poll. However, this field doesn’t account for the logistics of travel, pods, or religious limitations but gives us the match-ups the way they should be in the opening round.  The only major adjustment?  I believe the 16 seeds should be playing in the “first” round rather than pitting the 12,13,14 seeds against one another. South Regional: Home of the #1 Overall Seed (1) Kentucky vs (16) Norfolk St vs (16) Mississippi Valley St (2) Wichita St vs (15) Monatana (3) Duke vs (14) St Bonaventure (4) Georgetown vs (13) New Mexico State (5) Baylor vs (12) Notre Dame (6) LBSU vs (11) West Virginia (7) Texas vs (10) Murray State (8) Temple vs (9) Purdue West Regional: Home of the #2 Overall Seed (1) Mich St vs (16) Long Island vs (16) Western Kentucky (2) Syracuse vs (15) UNC-Asheville (3) Wisconsin vs (14) Lehigh (4) Belmont vs (13) San Diego St (5) Florida vs (12) Davidson (6) Gonzaga vs (11) Harvard (7) Michigan vs (10) Uconn (8) Creighton vs (9) Iowa State East Regional: Home of the #3 Overall Seed (1) Ohio State  vs (16) Loyola Maryland vs (16) Vermont (2) Missouri  vs (15) Lamar...

by Will (follow him on twitter @fullmarx12) This week, 68 of the best basketball teams in the country will begin their chase for a national title. At the same time, 32 more teams will compete in the NIT, hoping to turn the disappointment of missing a trip to the NCAAs into a trip to Madison Square Garden. Still beyond that though, far from the national radar, sits the wonder that is the College Basketball Invitational. Here season-long mediocrity is celebrated and rewarded – as much as paying $35k for the privilege of hosting a first-round game can be considered a reward. In recent years, though, the CBI has turned out to be a legitimate proving ground for teams looking to rebuild. VCU’s much-heralded run to the Final Four last year was preceded by a CBI championship in 2010; similarly, Creighton made a run to the CBI finals last year before falling to Oregon. This year, they are MVC tournament champions and one of the stronger mid-major teams in the country. So among this year’s 16-team field, who has the best chance of turning a strong CBI showing into a successful 2012-2013 campaign? Evansville (16-15, 9-9 MVC): Scoring was rarely the issue this season for Evansville, as the Purple Aces finished 24th in the nation in 3-point FG% and 12th in FT%. Most notably they came within a point of a season sweep of MVC tournament champion Creighton, winning at home and losing the rematch in Omaha 93-92 in OT. The offense for Evansville revolves around guard Colt Ryan, who averaged 20.2 PPG this year and will likely be the focal point of the team next year in his senior season. Evansville will host Princeton as slight favorites in the first round, looking to improve...

  by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) The two sides come into this game in contrasting form: Fulham brimming with confidence following their recent 5-0 whitewashing of Wolves whilst Villa appears to be limping towards the finish line. Aston Villa are a poor 3-4-6 in their own building with their only wins on home soil coming against Norwich, Wigan and Blackburn. Keep in mind not a single one of those sides sit in the top half of the EPL. Fulham isn’t exactly a road juggernaut either as they are 2-5-6 on their travels. However, they have lost just two of their last eight EPL games and one of those was at league power Manchester City meanwhile Aston Villa has mustered just 1 win in their last 8 EPL contests. With injuries to key striker Darren Bent and the return to LA of the lively Robbie Keane, the home side is struggling for attacking options. Despite the absence of key personnel they will be spurred on by a passionate home crowd to play on the front foot but this isn’t the chosen method of play for their naturally defensive minded coach Alex McLeish. However, McLeish is under pressure to grab some quick wins to ensure Villa’s EPL survival.  His move from city rival Birmingham last summer was not well received by the locals.  The pragmatic approach he takes to the game has been heavily criticized by both the fans and the local media. When Villa does push men forward into attacking areas this will play right into Fulham’s hands.  I see Fulham launching countless counter attacking raids using the pace of Johnson and Duff to wreak havoc on a slow Villa backline. Fulham will provide an attacking threat throughout the game whilst Villa...

By Brad Niehaus (follow him @SquareCapper) My list is based on gambling experiences as they developed over the years.  All of you out there don’t lie or dare mock me because if you’re here reading this post answering yes to any of the following questions, like myself, you have an issue that borders on obsession. (2002) Have you ever bet a friend you could outscore him during each drill in an attempt to spice up high school basketball practice? (Coach thought it was ridiculous to pull up for a 3 while in layup lines but those 5 laps would have been well worth it had the ball gone in.) (2003) Have you ever stayed up all night with your cousin charting out futures on next family member to get pregnant/married/arrested/divorced… with odds? (Interesting note: favorites hit in 3 of the 4 categories.) (2004) Have you ever been in Orlando with a friend, told his parents you were going to play miniature golf, then drove the family van over an hour to an OTB for some horse action? (Purely hypothetical, we stayed at Epcot the whole time) (2005) Have you ever been standing by the road waiting for a ride and started betting on color of the next car to come by? (Odds were based on color and determined after a small sampling.) (2006) Have you ever brought a pocket size television to Christmas Eve mass to watch a football game? (You’re welcome Broncos fans. I think the good lord’s payback to me was the Bengals fumbling the snap on the extra point.) (2008-Current) Have you ever created, developed, marketed, and grown a sports book for your fantasy football league? Even I drew the line trying to book win totals for the league because certain...

by James Kempton (follow him on twitter @ukbettingpro) Tottenham hosts Manchester United tomorrow on the heels of United’s 2-1 win at Norwich, a contest rescued in the last minute by veteran Ryan Giggs’ winner. The game is priced up with United appearing as strong favourites and at first glance, I am not sure you can back them with any real conviction. In theory, there should be a response from the Tottenham players and I sense Sir Alex would view a point for his Manchester side at White Hart Line as an excellent result for the Red Devils. Tottenham has not beaten United in any of their last twenty eight meetings across all competitions with the last ten EPL games at White Hart yielding 7 wins for Manchester along with 3 draws. Although Redknapp has not been behind the Tottenham bench for all of the meetings, those statistics should make any prospective Tottenham backers very wary of the Spurs in this game. United has a 9-3-1 record on the road with their only defeat at Newcastle at the beginning of January. Tottenham boasts a 10-2-1 mark at home with their only defeat a humiliating 5-1 blemish at the hands of Manchester City back in late August. The public perception of United is that they are now a pragmatic side who is more cautious in their approach than in past years. Interestingly though, 11 of their last 12 English competitive games have resulted in at least three goals in the game. It seems Sir Alex is not as confident in his defence and is now looking to outscore teams knowing his side is unlikely to keep a blank sheet. This situation has probably been highlighted more since the loss of influential defender Nemanja Vidic to injury...

  Everyone wants a chance to compete against an elite field, so why should the NCAA tournament be any different for sports fans? How do I enter? Create a CBS User ID using your Twitter handle for registration purposes.  This way, people can interact with each other throughout the competition. Click here to enter After you click the link above, you will be routed to the contest home page.  #Beatthebookie will prompt you for a password listed below Password: Vegas2012 Why should I compete? Everyone wants to beat the best gamblers and bookmakers in the world – now’s your chance to put up or shut up and put me in my place!  The pool will be capped at 400 entrants so those slow to the party may not make the cut! What can I win?  The first annual Todd’s Take #beatthebookie trophy that will be the talk of the town.  Like in sports, there is no prize for coming in 2nd since we’re not here to dole out youth soccer participation trophies.  Cream will rise and a champion will be crowned. Also, in the spirit of the game, we’ll offer an additional prize to whoever has the best trash talk tweet using the hashtag #beatthebookie during the contest.  We’ll choose 5 and let YOU guys vote on who deserves the special prize.   Questions?  Please send all inquiries to todd@toddstake.com...

Click here to listen Trent Condon and I get you geared up for Arch Madness and upcoming conference tournament action.  Looking for that big dance longshot? We share 2 teams that could offer serious value on selection...

Click here to listen Breaking down college basketball futures including a few viable sleepers that the betting public continues to ignore

By Brandon Crusan (follow him on twitter @cruz0210) The month of February  had its share ups and downs for College Hoops bettors this year. February  brought us rivalry week, judgement week, and bracketbuster Saturday, but if you talk to anyone who gets down on college hoops, they will tell you it was the month of 2nd half meltdown.  Meltdowns didn’t discriminate based on conferences or teams, almost everyone was effected. This list contains teams that are going dancing, bubble teams, and teams that just flat out terrible. Without further ado, here are the top 20 worst second half meltdowns of February in no chronological order. Oregon -10.5 @ Utah (2/2) Tied 36-36 at half 2H Oregon 43-32, 79-68 Ducks final Detroit +2.5 @ Valparaiso  (2/2) Detroit up 45-36 at half 2H 45-28 Valpo, 78-73 Crusaders final Marquette -10 @ Depaul (2/6) Depaul up 43-40 at half 2H 49-33 Marquette, 89-76 Golden Eagles final UVA +2.5 @ Clemson (2/14) Tied 24-24 at half 2H 36-24 Clemson,  60-48 Tigers final Florida -2.5 @ Alabama (2/14) Tied 26-26 at half, 2H 35-26 Florida, 61-52 Gators final Texas -2.5 @ Oklahoma (2/14) Okla up 33-28 at half 2H 41-25 Texas, 69-58 Longhorns final Nova +3.5 @ USF (2/15) Tied 20-20 at half 2H 45-31 USF, 65-51 Bulls final UNC -5.5 @ Miami (2/15) Miami up 35-30 at half 2H 43-29 UNC,  73-64 Tarheels final UNLV+5 @ New Mexico (2/18) UNLV up 27-26 at half, 2H 39-18 New Mexico, 65-45 Lobos final Purdue +4.5 vs MSU (2/19) Purdue up 38-35 at half 2H 41-24 Michigan St, 76-62 Spartans final (purdue started 2h 1/21 from field) Texas -2.5 vs Baylor (2/20) Texas up 36-26 at half 2H 51-36 Baylor,  Bears 77-72 final Northwestern -2 vs Michigan (2/21) Northwestern up 31-24 at half,...

Establishing efficiency in a futures market is essential for attracting action on all teams. Unlike a normal supply and demand curve where price rises as demand increases, the exact opposite is true for booking futures. When people are clamoring to bet a team to win the title, odds drop until it becomes unattractive for the parade to continue. If bettors are avoiding certain teams in the market, the key is raising the number until you can entice a bet.  Every bookmaker responsible for building a market understands the theoretical hold he strives to keep.  Theoretical hold is the percentage of every dollar wagered in the market the house keeps and in terms of futures, it serves as a barometer for how aggressively teams need to be moved up for each time you move a side down or vice versa.  Similar to physics, the perfect market should always require equal and opposite reactions on both sides of the equation to maintain stability.     The primary goal for bookmakers is to achieve balance heading into the season so it’s easy to make necessary adjustments as favorites emerge.  If a bookmaker is stubborn and allows liability to mount on certain teams, it becomes dangerous especially in pro sports like the NFL and NHL where competitive balance is king. When you visualize the process, imagine a balance where you have a large weight on one side and 10 smaller weights on the other to keep things even.  As the season progresses, the challenge is steering action towards different commodities so bettors make a case for not only the prohibitive favorite at 5/2 but also the longshot at 75-1.  Those who bet into future markets have different motivations ranging from the casual fan interested in betting his team for rooting...

Missed #25-#21? Click Here (Includes explanation of the ranking system) Missed #20-#16? Click Here Missed #15-#11? Click Here Provided by professional sports bettor PayneInsider.  Follow him on twitter @Payneinsider #10 – WISCONSIN BADGERS (20-8) BIG 10 AP Poll: 16, Coaches Poll: 15 Despite a half-dozen players auditioning for a role in the upcoming 2012 movie; Rocky VI “The Return of Drago,” Wisconsin has managed to gear their secondary focus on “breaking” the Big 10. Bo Ryan is like a robot; wash, rinse, dry, repeat as he continues to recruit the same style of player and hasn’t veered away from a game plan he created pre-shot clock. Jokes aside, this Badgers team plays great team ball and is one of the top 3 defenses in the entire country. There’s no quit in this team, they’re tough, extremely physical – and that style of play translates well when you get outside the Big 10. No question the Badgers lack playmakers, but regardless of the talent deficiency Wisconsin has been in just about every big game they’ve had racking up 4 wins against my top 50 including; 2 wins against my top 25. For the players and coaches battling out on the court it’s all about wins and losses, but when sharp guys dissect teams we factor in “quality loses.” They fell short at North Carolina by 3 points, lost a heart breaker at home in overtime to Michigan State, and by two buckets to Ohio State at home before beating them on the road yesterday. At the end of the day a few bounces here or there throughout the course of a 40-minute contest could have turned the tide in Wisconsin’s favor. The Badgers follow up Sunday’s big win with tough home games versus Minnesota and...