by @notthefakebruce Buy Baylor (1-21 Missouri, 1-24 @Oklahoma) Baylor enters Saturday’s showdown with Missouri fresh off a Big Monday drubbing against the Jayhawks in Lawrence.  This Big XII showdown will easily be one of the top five games of the week and it’s unfortunate the game hasn’t been earmarked for primetime.  Since losing at Kansas St, Mizzou has covered 3 straight and may come in a little over valued for Saturday’s contest.  After Baylor beats Missouri, I look for them to carry that emotion over at Oklahoma but be bettor beware if the price tag is too high as they head to Norman.  My major buy interest on the Bears is vs Missouri while I’ll remain luke warm on backing them against the Sooners. North Carolina (1-16 NC State) Only one game this week for UNC and I love it on the heels of last night’s rousing 2nd half comeback in Blacksburg.  For the first time in conference  UNC played 20 complete minutes in battling back from a halftime deficit against Tech to win by 14.  Keep in mind this may be the worst the ACC has been from top to bottom in quite a few years with only Duke and UVA the real competition for UNC when they’re playing at full speed.  I expect the Tar Heels to come out strong and beat the tar out of the Wolfpack this weekend and it will be the resounding blowout UNC fans have craved for weeks. Michigan State (1-21 Purdue, 1-25 Minnesota) The Spartans were on my “SELL” list last week and we were dead on with the analysis as they went 0-2 as predicted.  MSU now returns home to host a scrappy Boiler team but this is a must-win for MSU after back to...

Click here to listen David and I give you all that you need to know as you approach Conference Championship weekend in the NFL

Click here to listen The boys and I discuss the potential legalization of sports wagering in Atlantic City before jumping into the nuts and bolts of conference championship weekend...

by Cruz0210 Sunday, January 15 NY Giants vs GB Packers 1h O/U 27.5 Halftime Score 20-10 Giants With 15 seconds to go in the half, Big Blue clung to a 3 pt lead and it looked as if the Giants would run one more play to take it into the half and secure the first half under.  Under bettors believed there was no possible way this game could sneak over since even a FG would keep it under the first half total.  Ahmad Bradshaw had other ideas and took the 3rd and 1 play 26 yards, getting out of bounds and stopping the clock with 6 seconds left.  Watching the game I thought the giants would run a quick out and try to get a long FG attempt in before the half and by the looks of the Green Bay defensive scheme they thought the same thing.  Oh contraire:  On the next play Manning tossed a Hail Mary 37 yards to Nicks for a Giants TD, MOOSING under backers something fierce. Monday, January 9 WVU +5.5 vs UCONN Final Score Uconn 64-57 WVU went to the half with a 5 pt lead and for the better part of 40 minutes were in total control of the game.  As the 2nd half played out, WVU held the lead until Ryan Boatright’s dunk tied the game for Uconn with 6 minutes to go in the game. Fast forward to the final 14 seconds where Jeremy Lamb nailed two free throws giving UConn their largest lead of the game at 5.  After a Truck Bryant missed 3 and and Andre Drummond block on the put back, Uconn’s  Jeremey Lamb leaked free for a run out and with one second left on the clock laid the ball in...

We’re now less than 2 months until selection Sunday and I definitely have an opinion on the current projected field.  Each week I’ll break down bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s bracket with my Vegas perspective of whose stock is rising and falling as it pertains to my adjusted power rankings.  Written analysis accompanies the power 16 while lines 5-16 highlight teams improving their seeding while others hang on for dear life. 1: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Baylor This line is far from iron clad although for my money 2 teams are virtual locks.  Syracuse continues to boat race all comers and UK’s dominance persists even though they’re forcing bettors into bankruptcy with ATS futility.  Call me skeptical Duke but this Blue Devil team doesn’t defend like past editions. As for Baylor, well they’re still coached by Scott Drew so expect a bad loss or two down the stretch.  I’ll reluctantly keep the Devils on the top line for now although it wouldn’t shock me if they were upset early in the tournament. Last night’s blowout loss to KU doesn’t mean Baylor isn’t elite but I’m not buying them as a #1 seed right now. Stock falling:  Baylor 2: Ohio State, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina Amazing that the Big XII could potentially have 3 teams among the top 8 seeds in the big dance and for what it’s worth I’m selling that potential scenario.  Ohio State will climb the ladder and make their way to the 1 seed before the season ends while I think Missouri is currently playing well above their capabilities and will struggle on the highway throughout conference play. Stock rising: Ohio State Stock falling: Missouri 3: Indiana, Georgetown, Uconn, Michigan St Can I take my pick of which team doesn’t belong here?  Given the...

Hanging an aggressive price in the NFL has consequences I’m asked all the time by aspiring handicappers and sports radio personalities why my true number on a game varies with what’s available on the actual betting boards.  The truth is that all bookmaker’s regularly find themselves in a prisoner’s dilemma as it pertains to NFL football.  You can hang a number and remain steadfast that it’s the right price but as the one sided action begins to pile up you enter dangerous territory. Let’s take a look at the Saints vs 49ers game today to better illustrate my point: At most betting shops the Saints opened as 3 pt favorites on Saturday night.  By Sunday the game went to 3.5  because the steady flow of public and sharp money drove the price through a field goal.  I have my own opinion on every game and for this contest believe the true line should be closer to Saints -1.5.  However, a bookmaker’s opinion is only worth one limit bet from the sharpest customers if the rest of the market offers a price on the key number rather than a half point below it.  The follow-up question is then why as a good bookmaker are you inclined to mirror the market around key numbers rather than lock up all of the business by trusting your reads? If I were to make the game 2.5 while everyone else decides to use a 3 even if I believe the 49ers are the going to be the sharp side, every bettor in the free world with a bankroll comes into my establishment and lays the favorite -2.5 with limited repercussions.  Why do I say limited when after all this is gambling?  The reason is two fold: educated  gamblers laying...

Click here for web version Chad and I dissect all of the big decisions for the divisional playoff games and it doesn’t come without a few jabs at my New York sports allegiances.

Click here to listen Mark and I share our thoughts on the NFL playoff games and tip our hand to the sides we see as undervalued.  We also dissect the muddled Big XII hoops picture and how a handicapper should approach finding nightly line...

Click here to listen Brent, Blaine, and Clay ask all the important questions for the divisional playoffs.  We even find a bit of time to sneak in some college hoops chatter along with the...

By @cruz0210 Looking to help Brandon with his weekly segment? Hashtag #moosealert and tweet Brandon to see your bad beat listed and credited in next week’s column Tuesday, January 3 Michigan vs Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl) 1st half line VT+1.5 Halftime score 10-6 Michigan After almost a full half of football, VT was completely dominating the Sugar bowl but only had 6 pts to show for it thanks to key redzone stops by Michigan and questionable Hokie play calling on 4th down (not quite Mike Smith caliber, but you get the idea). With about 1 minute left in the half, Michigan relied on their most effective play in the playbook: Robinson tossed up a hail mary jump ball to Junior Hemingway that resulted in a 45 yard TD pass on 3rd and long giving Michigan a 7-6 lead with 48 seconds left. If you had a VT +1.5 first half ticket your bet was still very safe since all VT had to do was take a knee and go to the half with a 7-6 deficit.   As every gambler knows, even the best laid plans don’t always come to fruition.  Tech’s Tony Gregory fumbled the kickoff, giving Michigan the ball on the VT 26. After Michigan failed to do anything with the turnover, the Wolverines lined up for a FG that would give them the 1st half cover but Michigan didn’t kick it, they faked! On one of the craziest plays I witnessed this bowl season (and there were plenty), Michigans Drew Dileo’s pass was tipped and caught by Offensive lineman Jareth Glanda , for an 11 yard gain and the most improbable of all first downs.  Two plays later Michigan lined up for a much shorter FG attempt where Brendan Gibbons split the...

Is it finally time to buy Kentucky after 11 straight failed covers? Bruce Friedman is up to his old tricks letting bettors know who they should be looking to ride or fade for the coming week. (@notthefakebruce) BUY Kentucky (1-14 @Tennessee, 1-17 Arkansas) November 19th, 2001; Why is that date important?  It’s actually the last time UK covered the spread.  I’ll admit I was on this team to buy the first week I did the column and was dead wrong.  If I’m wrong about them this time rest assured they won’t be appearing on this list again and I may keep them as a sell commodity for the rest of the season.  UK travels to Tennessee who just beat Florida but by Volunteer standards are way down this year under Cuonzo Martin.  Kentucky really should not have a problem here in a game I make the Wildcats roughly 9.5 pt favorites.  Arkansas has played great at home but the Razorbacks aren’t exactly juggernauts on the highway.  This game SHOULD get ugly as I expect UK to just hammer on the Hogs. Ohio State (1-15 Indiana) Only one game on tap this week for the Buckeyes and they enter Sunday’s showdown off a gross loss at Illinois.  The Buckeyes will be ready to exact revenge for the loss to the Hoosiers and you can fully expect 110% max effort in this spot.  Indiana was oh so close to losing to Penn State and I believe the Hoosiers won’t be able to rely on the 3 ball throughout conference play. Indiana is back and they’re a damn good team but at Ohio State I know OSU will play their best game of the year reminisce of the effort against Duke.  I’ll dabble tOSU here anything -13...

When you can’t play D, you can’t cover the number: Just ask Amare by Rob Perez ( @world_wide_wob ) Today, we are going to honor the line movers of the NBA Season thus far. Let’s call this awards ceremony: “The Hoopsies” My name is World Wide Wob, and I will be your host today. Out on the red carpet, the stars are beginning to make their way into the theatre. Let’s go to our ‘square’ correspondent, Petey Public, who’s currently with one of the nominees – take it away, Pete! “Thanks, Wob. I’m here with Kyle Lowry of the Houston Rockets. Kyle, thank you for taking the time to speak with us today, do you know you lead the league in three point attempts from 30 feet or more?” –Petey P. “I do, Pete. So far, I’ve loved being the new starting Point Guard for the Rockets. It’s my responsibility to dribble the ball across half court; and when I do, sometimes I get the itch to throw a shot up there.” – Kyle L. “Now, Kyle, you have made your fair share for sure, but have you ever considered waiting for your teammates to get into rebounding position before you launch a 33 foot three point attempt?” – Petey P. “To be honest, it never crossed my mind.” – Kyle L. “Well, there you have it, Wob. Kyle Lowry of the Houston Rockets, nominated for the ‘All NBA Heat Check’ team, sounds pretty comfortable scoring 15.3 PPG despite half of his shot attempts occurring when his team has zero chance of scoring or getting back on defense otherwise…. Back to you!” Thanks Petey. Before we commence with the ceremony, I’d like to reiterate the prerequisites for being nominated: The team of the nominated...