Is stiff arming the title game a violation of handicapping man law? While everyone runs to handicap the LSU / Alabama rematch by asking themselves simplequestions like can the Tide solve their special team woes this time around? Will Jordan Jefferson break a few big plays and be the leader LSU needs in crunch time?  Can Les Miles really best Nick Saban twice in a season?  The real question every bettor needs to be asking himself is there really value betting a game when everyone wants action? For most recreational gamblers worrying about large limits and having multiple “outs” aren’t normal concerns that factor into the handicapping equation.  Whether it’s the the BCS title game, Bulls vs Pistons, or Idaho St vs Wyoming tonight you won’t have a problem betting 110 to win 100 no matter where you chooses to bet.  My question is always this having been in the bettor’s shoes before why bother to plunk down hard earned money on Alabama instead of Idaho St if you believe the Bengals offer a better value this evening than the Crimson Tide? When seeking sustained success in handicapping the key is finding value that gives you an edge over the books.  It doesn’t matter if its a side, total, future, or prop finding an opportunity can come anywhere but rarely do these type of opportunities present themselves in championship type settings. As bookmakers we feel confident that our numbers are as tight as they can be to invite large limits for the most public sporting events.  To counteract the higher propensity of “softer” numbers in sports that don’t garner as much attention (WNBA, NASCAR, and Arena football) we employ lower limits to protect our assets.  General rule of thumb I’ll share with handicappers is...

When betting the NFL the question of buying points around key numbers always factor into the equation.  As a bookmaker, it’s no surprise some houses prevent customers from buying off of the 3 because empirical evidence supports the frequency with which pro games land on a field goal and allowing bettors to buy to 2.5 changes the mindset for booking a game. However, I’ve never understood why books won’t let customers buy onto a push since I’m the first to tell bettors that in the long run juice becomes my best friend because bettors simply can’t outrun it.   Although I’d be remiss if I didn’t say there are times to lay a few extra cents around the 3, 7, and 10 that can shift the balance of power to the player. NFL math says you’re better off taking +3, -130 than you are +2.5, -110 while the same methodology also applies laying -120 to buy from 6.5 to 7 or 7.5 down to 7 along with 10.5 down to 10 or 9.5 up to 10. Below you’ll find a breakdown of NFL results from the roughly 6,000 games played since 1988 that fell between 1 and 14. Adjustments have been made for rounding purposes and the remaining 31.5% of games played during this stretch not listed ended with a differential of more than 14 points while 6 games during this time period resulted in a tie. All data courtesy of @wagerminds 1 – 4.1% 2 – 3.4% 3 – 15.7% 4 – 5.4% 5 – 3.1% 6 – 5.4% 7- 8.6% 8 – 2.8% 9 – 1.7% 10 – 6.1% 11- 2.9% 12 – 1.6% 13 – 3.0% 14 –...

Click here to listen David Bastl and I break down all four of the games and put our spin on what you can expect this weekend

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Bruce Friedman shares his opinion of who bettors should be buying and selling this coming week in college buckets. @notthefakebruce BUYS Wisconsin (1-8 @ Michigan, 1-12 @ Purdue) Wisconsin rarely loses at home in conference let alone back to back games especially as 17 pt chalk they did against Iowa.  The Badgers followed up that clunker losing a heartbreaker against MSU and now go on the road into tough environments to face Michigan and Purdue.  The Wolverines lost a brutal game of their own in Bloomington last night but still own a 5-2 ATS record during their last 7 games.  I’d have to imagine practices in Madison haven’t exactly been fun and fully expect Coach Ryan’s team to hunker down on the defensive end during this road trip.  Wisconsin should enter Ann Arbor as slight dogs and I expect them to win the game outright.  Purdue’s shocking blowout loss in Happy Valley last night may eliminate some of the value you’ll find on the Badgers vs the Boilers but I’m not high on Purdue and will look at Wisconsin as long as they’re dogged in West Lafayette. North Carolina (1-7 Boston College, 1-10 Miami) There’s no tougher environment for ACC opponents than playing in Chapel Hill as BC and Miami will find out this week.  UNC is finally gelling and playing their best basketball of the year scoring 100 points in each of their last two games.  They have been at home since the first week of December and these are the final home games before a 2 game road trip that will take them to Florida State and Virginia Tech.  I plan to ride them in their final two games of the homestand and will look to sell them next week depending on...

Click here to listen Mark and I delve into NFL line movement, upcoming hoops games, and our take on the BCS title game

Click here to listen The great unveiling of 2013 BCS futures with an SEC focus and we break down the NFL playoff picture.  Much to my chagrin I’m quick to find out that I’m still not as cool as Blaine’s...

Thursday, December 29 Closing line: Baylor -9 Final: Baylor 67-56 From the beginning the Alamo Bowl had more fireworks than New Year’s Eve in Vegas and unfortunately for Washington bettors the pyrotechnics never stopped.  Baylor threw the 1st punch of the game grabbing a 21-7 after 1 and looked unstoppable.  After a 28-3 2nd quarter and complete role reversal from Washington, the Huskies took a 35-24 lead into the break.  Everyone holding a Huskies ticket had to be feeling good, hell I know I was.  Despite an opening drive TD for Washington to start the half, Baylor’s offense owned the 3rd quarter scoring on every possession and putting up 29 points to grab a 53-49 lead going into the final stanza but this is just when things got interesting. Keith Price had an amazing 3rd and Goal run from the 8 yard line to give the Huskies a 56-53 lead with 9:40 left and it looked like Washington backers would cash their ticket but 4 plays and 1:25 later Baylor answered right back to take a 60-56 lead. With 3:25 to go, Washington faced a 4th and 8 on the Baylor 39 and when Price’s pass to Kasen Williams sailed out of bounds every Huskies bettor knew the worst case scenario was looming.  Despite leading the game by 18 pts at one point with Huskies bettors clutching tickets anywhere from +7.5 to +10.5, the cover remained in doubt. With 3 minutes left in the game. Alamo Bowl MVP Terrance Ganaway took a run up the middle untouched for 43 yards and a Baylor TD giving the Bears an 11 point lead putting them outside the number.  Hey there was still 2:30 left in the game and Baylor hadn’t stopped Washington all night surely they...

Can Vince McMahon’s business model really help your NBA handicapping? by Rob Perez ( @world_wide_wob) When asked by my friends why I love the NBA my answer is the same every time: it is the WWE of sports. How has the WWE survived this long despite a homogenous fan base and how did they eliminate WCW during wrestling’s glory days? STAR POWER. D Generation X vs. The Nation Stone Cold vs. The Undertaker The Rock vs. Triple H Kane, Mankind, the Big Show, the McMahon family. If you followed the WWE during its prime in the late 1990s/early 2000s, you had something to root for EVERY match. If it was the Intercontinental Title bout (the WWE equivalent of the Poinsettia Bowl), the European Championship (think NIT of college hoops), etc..   you cared because superstars were participating, and you were guaranteed to stand up and yell “OHHHHH!!!!!” or “WOW!!!” at least once. You didn’t care what the wrestler’s records were, let’s be honest. You knew you were going to get a show. Now, the WWE has lost its stardom to Hollywood, and is struggling to sell 20,000 tickets to Wrestlemania, their Super Bowl, in Miami. I know what you’re thinking by now, how the hell is this related to handicapping the strike shortened NBA nightly grind but don’t worry, we’ll get there. There is no sport, (professional, college, or amateur) that has the star power of the NBA. I love the NBA because I can sit down, turn on Kings vs. Wizards and am entertained as if it were a playoff game. If you are not familiar with the NBA, the Kings and Wizards have been two of the worst teams, statistically, in the league the past five years. This year, the Kings are 2-3...

Detroit @ New Orleans Line: New Orleans -10.5, O/U 59.5 Is this finally the week the Saints ATS dominance in the dome comes to an end?   Has there been a hotter team entering the postseason than the New Orleans Saints?  Drew Brees closed his historic season in style with 7 straight games of 300+ passing yards leading his team to a blistering 8-0 ATS mark in the Superdome this year.  More impressive than the team’s wallet fattening home record was their 11-3 ATS record when listed as a favorite meaning bookmakers like myself never ratcheted the spread high enough to slow down the onslaught of Saints money.  When these teams met for Sunday night football on December 4, the Lions outgained the high octane Saints 466 to 438 but were done in by 11 penalties totaling 107 yards.  The Lions possess firepower capable of covering Saturday night if they don’t self destruct under the immense pressure of playing in the NFL’s most hostile environment.  As far as the total is concerned, 59 is going to be among the highest you’ll ever see in a playoff game but for good reason.  Keep in mind with a number this high any drought of 4-5 minutes can put the total on life support since an avg of 14 pts a quarter still means you’ll come up short.  Value doesn’t present itself often in playoff games and using a season’s worth of data to derive the correct spread and total for this game makes me believe these are great lines for 2 way action.  If anything value may be on the side of the Lions but it takes a steel stomach to step in front of the Saints freight train in their own building.   Atlanta @...

Is it Tebow time again? Value may finally exist betting the free falling Broncos Value comes in different forms when you handicap sports.  Bettors and bookmakers attack post season point spreads with different mindsets and agendas especially when you consider the large swell of public money entering the market during the playoffs. Pittsburgh @ Denver Line: Pittsburgh -7.5, O/U 35 I’m beginning to wonder if the Steelers actually have anyone on their 55 man roster that’s healthy right now.  Rashard Mendenhall is out for the year with a torn acl and Ryan Clarke is expected to miss with complications arising from his blood condition in the Rocky mountain air.  Say what you want about the toughness displayed by Big Ben every week but he hasn’t been the same QB since suffering his high ankle sprain and one of the league’s most dynamic passing offenses for much of the year has been grounded recently.  The argument that Pittsburgh shelved some of its playbook recently is plausible however the bottom line is the team has only scored 57 pts in their last four games for an avg of 14.25 PPG which includes a 27 pt explosion vs defensive juggernaut St Louis.  Pittsburgh has been installed as a road favorite of 7 or more 3 times this season and they’re 0-3 ATS in those games.  Denver enters the playoffs as losers of 3 straight, failing to cover the number in each of their last 4 contests.  Safe to say the honeymoon stage is officially over for Tim Tebow but as the limelight begins to fade point spread value becomes real.  Keep in mind the Steelers were -7 yesterday at Cleveland and now lay -7.5 against Denver despite their own offensive woes.  I won’t sugarcoat the fact the...

Investment principles applied by savvy stock brokers mirror the same strategies employed by the sharpest sports bettors to insure long term success.  Every week bettors have opportunities to “buy” undervalued teams and “sell” those that are grossly overpriced.  Bruce Friedman provides his weekly take in market watch BUYS Kentucky (12-31 vs Louisville) a quick glance at UK’s recent schedule reveals a team that hasn’t covered a game in over a month and now plays host to a huge in state rival in Louisville; that same Cardinal side that was exposed against Georgetown on Wednesday.  Bettors looking to invest in UK at home always end up paying a premium (see UNC game) however this is a game they’ve had circled in Lexington and I expect max focus and effort in what amounts to a great spot backing the normally over valued and wallet breaking Wildcats. Duke (12-30 vs Pennsylvania, 1-4 @Temple): The last time Duke faced off against Penn it resulted in a 59 point victory.  Yes thats correct, 59 points.  I don’t expect anything near 59 points but this is a game where the Devils can name the number based on talent alone.  Meanwhile the next game following a projected drubbing of Penn is against another Philly 5 school in Temple that’s actually playing good ball. For my money I don’t see the Owls able to match-up with Duke’s shooters and this should be an easy week for Duke heading into conference play. Marquette (1-1 Villanova, 1-4 @Georgetown): Another team that’s been a covering nightmare (0-5-1 L6) and now jumps into the meat of their Big East schedule following a pathetic effort against Vandy where they were never competitive.  The Golden Eagles catch a scuffling Nova side at home who they should beat convincingly...